Talks archive, 2010–2014 – Growth During Transition

GROWTH DURING TRANSITION Damian W Betebenner National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment CCSSO Colloquium on Growth During Transition of the PARCC Assessment States

GROWTH DURING TRANSITION: TWO DISTINCT CHALLENGES • Challenges to the calculation of student growth. • Challenges to the use of student growth for: • Teacher evaluation • School/District/State evaluation • Other diagnostic purposes

THE TRANSITION “SPEED BUMP” (At least) 4 stages to traverse when considering growth

THE TRANSITION “SPEED BUMP” (At least) 4 stages to traverse when considering growth Before: 2013-2014

THE TRANSITION “SPEED BUMP” (At least) 4 stages to traverse when considering growth During 1: 2014-2015

THE TRANSITION “SPEED BUMP” (At least) 4 stages to traverse when considering growth During 1I: 2015-2016

THE TRANSITION “SPEED BUMP” (At least) 4 stages to traverse when considering growth After: 2016-2017

September October November December January February March April May June July August PARCC PBA PARCC EOY Field Testing Field Testing PBA EOY Standard Window Window Setting 2016 Scores & 2015 Scores PBA EOY Data Files Returned Window Window Returned PBA EOY 2017 Scores & Window Window Data Files Returned September October November December January February March April May June July August

REVIEW: FLAVORS OF GROWTH • SGP accommodates both Norm- and Criterion-Referenced growth • Norm-Referenced: Cohort referenced SGPs • Criterion-Referenced: Baseline referenced/anchored SGPs, student growth projections/targets (i.e., growth to standard), catch-up/keep-up/move-up/stay-up. • Based upon state preference, policy, and data, different states have created different combinations of norm- and criterion-referenced growth metrics. • These growth metrics often have different data requirements. • SGP calculation is robust to scale transformations. It unlikely that the transition from a state assessment scale to a PARCC scale will prevent the calculation of an SGP. However, this has to be validated on a state by state, content area by content area, and grade by grade basis.

Advanced Reading ● Move ●● Up Achievement Target DEMO Reading ● Scale Score ● Keep Up Target Catch Up ● ● Growth Proficient ● Target Level Percentiles ● Very High 81st − 99th High 61st − 80th Part Proficient Typical 40th − 60th Low 20th − 39th Unsatisfactory Very Low 1st − 19th Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Scale Score 449 533 579 602 Achievement Level Achievement Target Unsatisfactory Part Proficient Part Proficient Proficient Proficient (592) Proficient (620)/Advanced (661) Achievement Growth Percentile 69 85 74 Growth Level Growth Target High Very High High Catch Up (60) Keep Up (76)/Move Up (99) Growth

REVIEW: THREATS TO CALCULATION • SGPs don’t require a vertical scale for calculation. Regardless of whether PARCC uses a vertical scale, SGPs can be calculated using both vertical and non-vertical scales. • A signi cant ceiling/ oor associated with a test (either PARCC or a state test used as a prior) can lead to bad model t. These growth metrics often have different data requirements. • Barring signi cant ceiling/ oor, norm-referenced analyses will very likely yield a uniform distribution of percentiles. • SGP calculation is robust to scale transformations. It unlikely that the transition from a state assessment scale to a PARCC scale will prevent the calculation of an SGP. However, this has to be validated on a state by state, content area by content area, and grade by grade basis. fi fl fl fi fi

REVIEW: REQUIREMENTS FOR CALCULATING GROWTH: SGP • Annual growth? Bi-annual growth? Tri-annual growth? • Annual growth (norm-referenced SGPs based upon a single cohort) requires (at a minimum) two consecutive annual measures (i.e., scale scores) of student achievement (usually taken from the same content area). • Annual growth (anchored/baseline-referenced SGPs) requires (at a minimum) two consecutive annual measures (i.e., scale scores) of student achievement (usually taken from the same content area) from the same assessment (i.e., an assessment with a time-invariant scale). • Annual targets (SGP Projections/Targets/Trajectories) require (at a minimum) two consecutive annual measures of student achievement from the same assessment (i.e., an assessment with a time-invariant scale).

REVIEW: REQUIREMENTS FOR CALCULATING GROWTH: SGP • States primarily focus on annual growth, particularly for accountability (exceptions include, for example, student growth from 8th to 10th grade). • PARCC eld testing will impact a state’s ability to calculate growth for students due to the simple fact that student will not receive back scale scores on the PARCC eld test. • Absent double testing, students participating in the eld test cannot receive annual SGPs in BOTH 2013-2014 (no current year score) AND 2014-2015 (no prior year score). • If a student has a scale score in 2012-2013, one could, for example, calculate a two year SGP for a students participating in eld testing between 2012-2013 and 2014-2015. • In the years after the transition, absent double testing, students will have different numbers of priors available for SGP analyses. fi fi fi fi

REVIEW: REQUIREMENTS FOR CALCULATING GROWTH: SUMMARY • Easier to conduct norm-referenced SGP analyses during transition than criterion-referenced growth to standard analyses. • Criterion-referenced projections require linking SGP analyses done exclusively on the PARCC assessment in order to extrapolate forward how much growth is required to, for example catch-up/keep-up/move-up/stay-up. • Analogously growth-to-standard (e.g., career and college-readiness) will require at least two years data on the new scale as well as xed achievement levels/ standards de ned on the new scale. • Establishing baseline referenced SGPs will likely require even more time (e.g., 4 years) to establish a stable baseline from which to compare going forward. fi fi

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE USE OF GROWTH • Two distinct challenges: Calculation and Use • Just because we can calculate an SGP doesn’t mean it is defensible to use it for previously existing accountability purposes. • Validating SGP use will require de ning the purpose. • Current state uses include: • Teacher evaluation (required by RttT, ESEA waiver, state policy/rule making, ...) • School and District accountability (ESEA waiver, state policy, ...) • Charter school accreditation. fi

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE USE OF GROWTH • During the assessment transition, a number of challenges confront states using growth for accountability purposes. • Data time span (e.g., two-year growth) not aligned with accountability time span (annual) • Changes in types of growth analyses done for accountability during transition. Criterion-referenced growth not available until year 2 of PARCC. • Assessment results from different assessments (state and PARCC). Depending upon the number of priors used by the state, this will be an ongoing issue for many years. • Missing data due to PARCC eld testing. fi

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE USE OF GROWTH • Data time span (e.g., two-year growth) not aligned with accountability time span (annual) • Most accountability systems use an observational pre-post design to hold teachers/schools/districts accountable. • Often, the pre-test occurs the spring prior to enrollment in the unit of accountability and the post-test the spring during enrollment. • An extended growth time span (e.g., two-year) undermines the attribution of responsibility implicit within the accountability determination. • Mis t between accountability and growth time span impact school and district accountability as well, but likely will have less impact because eld testing does not occur school wide. fi fi

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Growth During Transition — CCSSO, December 2013.

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