GEORGIA SUMMARY SGP RESULTS CORRELATIONS BETWEEN GROWTH AND PRIOR ACHIEVEMENT Damian W Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment Dover, New Hampshire October 10th, 2017

ISSUE: BACKGROUND • As part of validation of results, correlations between mean prior achievement (mean of prior scale score standardized within grade) and mean SGP (unadjusted and SIMEX adjusted) were examined at the school level. • In all but one content area, the correlations increased from 2015 to 2016. • This presentation follows up those results by looking at growth data derived from 2017 data.

ANALYSIS • From 2015 to 2016 there is a definite trend upward in correlations between prior achievement and growth. • Examination of data rule out outliers/changes in marginal distributions as the reason. • The increasing correlations observed are synonymous with larger increases in mean SGP for schools serving higher achieving students (higher mean achievement) than their counterparts serving lower achieving students. • Based upon analyses conducted in 2016, 2017 results were added to investigate any changes that have occurred and their possible causes.

CORRELATIONS: MEAN PRIOR ACHIEVEMENT BY MEAN SGP

GA: SCHOOL LEVEL CORRELATIONS SIMEX ADJUSTED/MEAN PRIOR ACHIEVEMENT 2014/2015/2016/2017 2014 (CRCT/EOCT) 2015 (Milestones) 2016 (Milestones) 2017 (Milestones) Algebra I 0.24 (560) 0.28 (597) American Lit 0.28 (427) 0.18 (427) 0.5 (436) 0.49 (429) Analytic Geometry 0.34 (426) 0.37 (436) 0.45 (346) 0.16 (122) Biology 0.11(438) 0.21(449) 0.23 (447) — Coordinate Algebra 0.23 (649) 0.23 (725) 0.21(246) 0.20 (160) Economics 0.09 (426) 0.05 (427) 0.29 (428) — ELA 0.38 (1,745) 0.3 (1,760) 0.44 (1.742) 0.33 (1,748) Geometry 0.48 (122) 0.36 (331) Grade 9 Lit 0.22 (465) 0.25 (540) 0.36 (584) 0.23 (522) Mathematics 0.35 (1,744) 0.38 (1,760) 0.42 (1,752) 0.30 (1,748) Physical Science 0.22 (465) 0.25 (540) 0.27 (584) — Science 0.27 (1,747) 0.3 (1,760) 0.39 (1,752) — Social Studies 0.24 (1,747) 0.21(1,760) 0.34 (1,752) — US History 0.03 (423) 0.06 (426) 0.18 (431) —

GA: SCHOOL LEVEL CORRELATIONS MEAN SIMEX ADJUSTED SGP TO PRIOR MEAN SCALE SCORE BY GRADE Mathematics ELA Grade 4 0.18/0.23/0.26/0.15 0.23/0.09/0.29/0.24 Grade 5 0.11/0.13/0.20/0.10 0.11/0.11/0.24/0.12 Grade 6 0.27/0.18/0.24/0.13 0.28/0.22/0.25/0.12 Grade 7 0.35/0.22/0.29/0.25 0.23/0.36/0.32/0.32 Grade 8 0.23/0.23/0.30/0.22 0.38/0.22/0.34/0.27 Entire School 0.35/0.38/0.42/0.30 0.38/0.30/0.44/0.33

CORRELATIONS: CURRENT ACHIEVEMENT BY PERCENT FREE/REDUCED LUNCH

GA SCHOOL LEVEL CORRELATIONS CURRENT SCALE SCORE TO CURRENT PERCENT ED 2014/2015/2016/2017 Mathematics ELA Grade 4 -0.50/-0.77/-0.75/-0.77 -0.56/-0.80/-0.78/-0.80 Grade 5 -0.50/-0.72/-0.70/-0.73 -0.58/-0.81/-0.79/-0.81 Grade 6 -0.52/-0.70/-0.68/-0.70 -0.53/-0.72/-0.71/-0.77 Grade 7 -0.48/-0.72/-0.71/-0.75 -0.51/-0.72/-0.74/-0.74 Grade 8 -0.49/-0.67/-0.68/-0.56 -0.55/-0.71/-0.69/-0.73 Entire School -0.48/-0.69/-0.68/-0.75 -0.52/-0.70/-0.68/-0.79

CORRELATIONS: MEAN SGP AND PERCENT FREE/REDUCED LUNCH

GA SCHOOL LEVEL CORRELATIONS MEAN SIMEX ADJUSTED SGP TO CURRENT PERCENT ED 2014/2015/2016/2017 Mathematics ELA Grade 4 -0.17/-0.41/-0.36/-0.29 -0.18/-0.19/-0.33/-0.28 Grade 5 -0.07/-0.20/-0.17/-0.10 -0.12/-0.15/-0.22/-0.17 Grade 6 -0.28/-0.28/-0.25/-0.21 -0.19/-0.22/-0.22/-0.18 Grade 7 -0.13/-0.21/-0.30/-0.30 -0.12/-0.30/-0.25/-0.25 Grade 8 -0.09/-0.09/-0.16/-0.06 -0.30/-0.19/-0.23/-0.20 Entire School -0.14/-0.31/-0.29/-0.26 -0.18/-0.18/-0.27/-0.28

CORRELATIONS: MISCELLANEOUS CORRELATIONS

GA STUDENT LEVEL CORRELATIONS PRIOR SCALE SCORE TO CURRENT SCALE SCORE 2014/2015/2016/2017 Mathematics ELA Grade 4 0.79/0.81/0.84/0.84 0.78/0.78/0.82/0.83 Grade 5 0.78/0.82/0.84/0.86 0.76/0.80/0.83/0.84 Grade 6 0.79/0.80/0.84/0.84 0.77/0.78/0.84/0.84 Grade 7 0.85/0.86/0.87/0.87 0.76/0.79/0.84/0.84 Grade 8 0.81/0.84/0.80/0.82 0.77/0.78/0.83/0.85

GA SCHOOL LEVEL CORRELATIONS PRIOR SCALE SCORE TO CURRENT SCALE SCORE 2014/2015/2016/2017 Mathematics ELA Grade 4 0.89/0.90/0.93/0.92 0.94/0.93/0.95/0.96 Grade 5 0.87/0.90/0.92/0.93 0.95/0.95/0.96/0.96 Grade 6 0.89/0.90/0.91/0.90 0.95/0.95/0.96/0.96 Grade 7 0.96/0.96/0.96/0.95 0.96/0.96/0.97/0.97 Grade 8 0.93/0.93/0.90/0.91 0.96/0.95/0.97/0.96

ANALYSIS: CONCLUSIONS • Results suggest that increasing correlations are not associated with model anomalies but reflect actual changes occurring with Georgia schools. • The results suggest that in the second year of Georgia Milestones anchored to new achievement standards, schools serving higher achieving students are transitioning better than schools serving lower achieving students. • We welcome any advice on how we might continue to investigate this phenomenon to reach definitive conclusions.

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Georgia Summary SGP Results — Georgia Department of Education, October 2017.

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