New Hampshire 2020 Skip-Year SGP Analyses Damian Betebenner National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment New Hampshire Assessment and Accountability Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) June 29, 2020

COVID-19 Pandemic • Oh what a difference a couple of months make. • Most Spring 2020 tests have been cancelled: – State assessments in ELA/Math have been cancelled – Many ELP assessments (WIDA/ACCESS) were completed (e.g., in New Hampshire) • States, including New Hampshire, have been given assessment and accountability waivers by ED for 2020. • Because student academic growth as measured by state summative assessments utilizes prior assessment data in its calculation, the impacts of the 2020 pandemic will have ripple effects in 2021. • My colleague Adam VanIwaarden and I wrote a blog post on this topic in April which can be found here: https://www.nciea.org/blog/sgp/issues-and- considerations-covid-19-pandemic-presents-measuring-student-growth [Presentation Title - Footer] 2

2021 SGP Calculation • I have discussed whether growth can be calculated in 2021 and whether it can be used for accountability (e.g., school or teacher) with more than two-dozen states. • Simple answer: Yes, SGPs can be calculated using 2019 (and earlier data) as priors. – Several states have been calculating two-year growth for years when there is not annual sequence of tests. For example, 8th to 10th grade growth in ELA or Mathematics or End of Course testing. – Growth projections which yield Adequate Growth Percentiles (AGPs) will also be calculable in • The harder question is whether these SGPs can/should be used as part of state accountability. – Are two-year SGPs valid as indicators of annual growth? – Beyond technical viability, is it tenable (e.g., politically) to use two-year SGPs as a substitute for one-year SGPs? [Presentation Title - Footer] 3

2021 SGP Calculation • Are two-year SGPs valid as indicators of annual growth? – The paper on which this presentation is based shares some findings and will be discussed hereafter. • Is it tenable (e.g., politically) to use two-year SGPs as a substitute for one-year SGPs? – A much harder question that likely differs from state to state. – Answering it well requires technical due diligence which, hopefully, this report/presentation begins to address. [Presentation Title - Footer] 4

New Hampshire SGP Calculation • New Hampshire has had SGPs calculated for a decade, going back to the NECAP assessment system. • New Hampshire assesses students in ELA and Mathematics in grade 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8. • As mentioned previously, there is no summative data in 2020 due to the COVID-19. [Presentation Title - Footer] 5

Possible 2020 New Hampshire SGP Work • If New Hampshire is interested in calculating/using SGPs in 2021, part of due diligence would include: • Using historical data from 2016 to 2019, two-year SGPs from 2017 to 2019 were calculated using 2019 as the dependent variable and 2016 and 2017 as the independent variables (i.e., order 1 and 2 SGPs) – Two-year SGPs are calculated for grades 5, 6, 7, 8 in ELA and Mathematics. – SGPs are calculated separately for each norm-group. • One-year SGPs from 2018-2019 were available from previous SGP analyses. – One-year SGPs are calculated for grades 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. – SGPs are calculated separately for each norm-group. [Presentation Title - Footer] 6

Summary • SGP calculations can occur in 2021 but will be different than previously done (they span 2 years). • Whether those calculations can be used for accountability encompasses two dimensions: – How closely (historically) has two-year growth (skip-year) aligned with the traditional one-year growth that has been calculated. – Even if it is technically tenable to use two-year in lieu in one-year growth, is it practically tenable. • Running due diligence analyses on historical data is a first step toward this 2021 issue. [Presentation Title - Footer] 7

For more information: Center for Assessment www.nciea.org

About this copy

New Hampshire 2020 Skip-Year SGP Analyses — New Hampshire Technical Advisory Committee, June 29, 2020.

This is an image-based copy of the original PowerPoint slides; builds and animations are flattened.