Pandemic Related Academic Impact in 2021
What do state summative assessments tell us
Damian Betebenner & Adam Van Iwaarden
Center for Assessment
CCSSO Assessment Directors
September 21st, 2021
Pandemic Related Academic Impact
RI SGP Calculations 2021
Pandemic Related Academic Impact
• The pandemic and all the ensuing disruptions functions as a
kind of “academic headwind”, impeding (in general) the
academic progress of students.
• Headwinds impede progress in two ways:
• They slow one’s rate of progress
• The slower rate of progress leads to less distance being travelled.
• In education these two outcomes represent:
• Decrease in student growth.
• Decrease in student attainment.
RI SGP Calculations 2021
RICAS SGP Operational Considerations in 2021
• Due to no RICAS testing in Spring 2020, RICAS growth analyses will be
skip-year/gap year growth from 2019 to 2021.
• Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for RICAS data:
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the
2019 to 2021 students. These growth norms yield cohort means/median
SGPs of 50 and obscure COVID-19 academic impact.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using
2019 and prior data. These growth growth analyses don’t have mean/median
SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall COVID-19 academic impact
• Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for 2021 data using
baseline growth norms in case they were needed.
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WIDA-ACCESS SGP Operational Considerations in 2021
• Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for WIDA-ACCESS data:
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the
2020 to 2021 students. These growth norms yield cohort mean/median SGPs
of 50 and obscure COVID-19 academic impact.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using
2020 and prior data. These growth growth analyses don’t have mean/median
SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall COVID-19 academic impact.
• Use composite score from WIDA-ACCESS data. No analyses performed
using sub-scores.
• Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for 2021 data using
both cohort and baseline growth norms in case they were needed.
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SGP Summary of Cohort versus Baseline Referenced
• Cohort referenced SGPs
• Growth norms created from the current cohort of students.
• Mean/median will by 50 for all grade x content area analyses
• Cannot investigate overall impact of the pandemic on students.
• Can investigate differential impact of the pandemic on students.
• Does not require scale stability across years.
• Baseline referenced SGPs.
• Growth norms created from historical (i.e., pre-COVID) cohorts of students.
• Mean/median 50 for historical cohort, not necessarily 50 for current cohort.
• Extent of deviation from (i.e. below) 50 is indicative of less learning/pandemic related
academic impact.
• Mean SGP deviation of 5 corresponds to an effect size of 0.18.
• Can investigate BOTH overall impact and differential impact
• Requires scale stability across years.RI SGP Calculations 2021
SGP Assumptions
• SGP analyses presume valid scale scores
• Students forming the growth norm group are presumed to have taken the same (or
equivalent) test at the same time. Scores have to mean the same thing.
• SGPs, however, are often used as a post-hoc check of scale score validity/
comparability via Reductio ad absurdum
• In 2021, check form comparability and mode-of-administration comparability.
• RIDE has extensive experience (e.g., PARCC paper/pencil versus online) investigating
and accommodating mode-effects.
• If scores are not comparable then we either attempt to make them comparable or
run separate analyses.
• We assume something close to population invariance with respect to IRT
scaling.
• The population of students tested in 2021 and differences to 2019 is a concern
so we begin with data on the population of students tested.
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RICAS Participation
ELA Mathematics
Grade
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WIDA-ACCESS Participation
Overall Overall
Grade Grade
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SGP Calculations
• SGP calculations were performed using the SGP package and R
software environment based upon data supplied by the Rhode
Island Department of Education.
• To facilitate the calculation of baseline SGPs across multiple
states, we created an additional R package, SGPmatrices, that
contains Rhode Island matrices, amongst many others.
• https://centerforassessment.github.io/SGPmatrices/
• Source code associated with calculations are available on GitHub:
• RICAS: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/Rhode_Island
• WIDA-ACCESS: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/WIDA_RI
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SGP Results
• The following slides show SGP results for 2021.
• We report only baseline referenced SGPs in these slides
• The TAC recommended baseline referenced SGPs
• Differential impact shown in baseline SGPs will mirror that found in
cohort referenced SGPs.
• Due to the highly skewed nature of the SGP results, we recommend
median SGP over mean SGP in this instance.
• We also provide 2019 results to understand pandemic related
academic impact.
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SGP Analyses and Academic Impact
• Understanding pandemic related impact necessarily requires looking
back to pre-pandemic results.
• The impulse of stakeholders to want to compare 2021 results with 2019
results is the correct impulse at both the individual, school, district, and
state level.
• Wanting to look at 2019 to 2021 change is an attempt to investigate
impact.
• The challenge is making 2019 to 2021 comparisons apples-to-apples
comparisons.
• Supporting these comparisons requires having a complete
understanding is who constitutes the missing data. More on that after
some initial comparisons.
RI SGP Calculations 2021
SGP Analyses for 2021
• With comparable results we can quantify pandemic related
academic impact:
• At the state level
• Demographic subgroups including ethnicity, poverty
• Academic subgroups (special education, low/high achievers)
• By region/district/school
• By mode of education (remote/hybrid/in-person).
• Attendance
• English Language Learner impact can be evaluated using WIDA-ACCESS
results.
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RICAS Percent Proficient by Grade
ELA Mathematics
Grade
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Grade
ELA Mathematics
Grade
3 NA NA NA NA
4 NA NA NA NA
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Discussion
• Median baseline SGPs in ELA were in the mid 30s and median
baseline SGPs in mathematics were lower (upper teens to lower
• Deviation from normal growth (i.e., 50) represents the extent to
which academic growth slowed down from 2019 to 2021, that is,
academic impact.
• Larger academic impact in ELA than mathematics.
• Academic impact is fairly uniform across grades.
• Academic impact is very large likely requiring multiple years and
additional educational supports/interventions to recover.
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WIDA-ACCESS Median/Mean SGPs by Grade
Overall Overall
Grade Grade
K NA NA 6 50.0/50.2 32.0/38.4 (887)
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Discussion of Grade Level Results
• Median baseline SGPs are low in elementary school grades and
are close to 50 in the high school grades.
• Deviation from normal growth (i.e., 50) represents the extent to
which academic growth slowed down from 2020 to 2021, that is,
academic impact.
• Academic impact is very large in elementary and middle school
and close to non-existent in high school.
• Lack of impact is consistent with:
• Great academic support for the group during the pandemic.
• Impoverished learning conditions prior to the pandemic such that the pandemic
didn’t alter the status quo.
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Discussion of Ethnicity Results
• Broken out by ethnicity, 2021 baseline SGP results show similar
rank ordering (i.e., growth gaps) as seen in normal years.
• Student academic growth is lower in mathematics than in ELA
for all ethnic subgroups.
• Even though growth is lower for ethnic minorities, academic
impacts (growth difference with 2019) are uniform across
ethnicity subgroups.
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Free/Reduced
Lunch Status
ELA Mathematics
Free/Reduced Lunch
Status
FRL Yes 44.0/45.9 (18,477) 30.0/35.0 (14,479) 45.0/46.4 (18,820) 20.0/27.2 (14,541)
FRL No 55.0/53.7 (20,107) 41.0/43.4 (19,300) 55.0/53.6 (20,165) 30.0/36.0 (19,216)
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Discussion of Free/Reduced Lunch Results
• Baseline SGP results show similar growth gaps in 2021 (students
indicated as receiving free/reduced lunch have lower SGPs than
students indicated as not receiving free/reduced lunch.
• Academic impacts are uniform across the subgroups.
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by IEP Status
ELA Mathematics
IEP Status
Non-IEP 51.0/50.9 (31,158) 37.0/40.8 (26,913) 51.0/50.8 (31,552) 25.0/32.3 (26,939)
IEP 42.0/44.3 (5,398) 29.0/35.0 (4,802) 43.0/45.0 (5,408) 25.0/31.3 (4,780)
Students with 504 52.0/50.8 (2,028) 35.0/39.2 (2,064) 53.0/52.0 (2,025) 25.0/32.4 (2,038)
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Discussion of IEP Results
• Baseline SGP results show similar growth gaps in 2021 (students
indicated as receiving free/reduced lunch have lower SGPs than
students indicated as not receiving free/reduced lunch.
• Academic impacts are, in general, uniform across the subgroups:
• Academic impact for IEP group in mathematics is smaller than the
other two groups.
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by ELL Status
ELA Mathematics
ELL Status
ELL No 51.0/50.3 (36,261) 36.0/40.3 (30,942) 51.0/50.4 (36,249) 25.0/32.5 (30,607)
ELL Yes 42.0/44.7 (2,323) 30.0/34.9 (2,837) 43.0/45.5 (2,736) 23.0/28.8 (3,150)
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Discussion of ELL Results
• Baseline SGP results show somewhat similar growth gaps for ELA
subgroups between 2019 and 2021.
• The results for both ELA and mathematics show slightly less of
an impact for ELL students than for their non-ELL counterparts,
though the difference is practically insignificant.
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Gender
ELA Mathematics
Gender
Female 54.0/53.0 (18,917) 38.0/41.4 (16,438) 51.0/50.6 (19,137) 25.0/32.5 (16,375)
Male 46.0/47.1 (19,659) 34.0/38.4 (17,167) 49.0/49.5 (19,842) 25.0/32.0 (17,205)
Other --- 32.5/38.1 (42) --- 16.0/18.1 (49)
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Discussion of Gender Results
• Growth gender gaps historically exist (favoring females) in both
ELA and mathematics.
• Growth gender gaps are historically larger in ELA than
mathematics.
• Gaps are smaller in 2021 between males and females suggesting
the females might have been slightly more academically
impacted than males
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 5 ELA
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 6 ELA
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 7 ELA
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 8 ELA
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 5 Mathematics
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 6 Mathematics
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 7 Mathematics
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RICAS Median/Mean Skip-Year SGPs by Prior Achievement:
Grade 8 Mathematics
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Discussion of Growth by Prior Achievement Results
• In some grades and content areas median SGP baselines vary by the
prior achievement level of students, sometimes substantially.
• For example, in Grade 6 ELA lower achieving students had much lower
baseline SGPs than higher achieving students. This implies that those
students had much greater academic impact.
• In Grade 7 mathematics higher achieving students had lower baseline
SGPs than lower achieving students implying that higher achieving
students were more impacted.
• In general, there is a fairly uniform impact by prior achievement level.
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Participation Rates and Interpretation
• An issue impacting the interpretation of growth (and status) results in
2021 is participation in the state assessment.
• Low participation doesn’t impact calculation of cohort referenced
growth norms nor use of baseline referenced growth norms.
• Low participation does impact comparisons of group level results with
historical (e.g., 2019) results based upon higher participation rates.
• For example, how should one compare growth and status results for
school in 2019 and 2021 with very different rates of participation.
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Multiple Imputation
• Given the rich historical data available for students missing in 2021,
and the observed performance of comparable students from 2019
to 2021, it is possible to simulate what we think their performance
might have been.
• Combining multiple simulations can inform us about potential bias
in what we observed at state/district/school levels in 2021, as well
as inform us about levels of uncertainty around them.
• Multiple imputation (MI) of missing data is widely adopted and
well-developed statistical analysis technique used in many fields to
deal with missing data problems.
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Multiple Imputation
• MI uses information from the observed data to generate
parameter estimates in three steps:
• Imputation: A prediction model generates a set of plausible values
for the missing observations, resulting in M imputed data sets.
• Analysis: The analysis (e.g., baseline student growth percentiles) is
conducted on each of the M data sets.
• Pooling: Parameter and (more importantly) uncertainty estimates
are constructed by pooling across the M analyses.
RI SGP Calculations 2021
Multiple Imputation
• In the context of COVID impact analyses, we use the multiple
(plausible) parameter estimates to inform us about the
uncertainty around what was observed. That is, we do not use
MI to produce “corrected” parameter estimates, but rather to
help determine whether we trust the statistics calculated from
the observed (with missing) data.
• Statistics of particular interest:
• Mean/median scale scores
• Mean/median baseline SGPs
• Effect size estimates
RI SGP Calculations 2021
Multiple Imputation
• Before performing a MI analysis with RICAS data, missing data
patterns were investigated.
• Patterns suggest some relationship to factors such as prior
achievement and economic status.
• These relationships suggest that missingness in RICAS is non-
ignorable, but does not preclude the use of MI.
• Data can be considered “Missing-at-random” – relationships exist between
missingness and the observed data (and so can not be considered “missing
completely-at-random”) but the relationships are not systematic (e.g. all
students below proficiency in 2019 were missing in 2021).
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Multiple Imputation
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Multiple Imputation
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Multiple Imputation
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Multiple Imputation
• Given the 2021 missingness patterns and the good coverage of observed scores for
students from all demographic groups and prior achievement levels, MI is a
reasonable approach to dealing with RICAS missing data.
• Imputation models included:
• Student prior achievement
• Student demographics
• FRL Status
• Disability status
• English language proficiency status
• Gender
• Ethnicity dummy variables for White, African American, Hispanic and Asian students
• School level clustering
• 30 imputations (M = 30 with a maximum of 10 iterations per imputation) were
conducted.
RI SGP Calculations 2021
Multiple Imputation
• Imputation models were restricted to include only students
who were enrolled, but not tested.
• Knowing school/district affiliation is critical for assessing the impact
of missing data for subsequent analyses at these levels.
• Excluding students who “disappeared” from the system may not
give us a full account of the impact of missing data at the state
level. However, a comparison of the enrolled vs. non-enrolled
missing students does not lead us to believe their inclusion would
meaningfully change inferences at the state level.
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Multiple Imputation
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School Level Results
• Due to larger fluctuations in participation rates a the school level,
growth comparisons between 2019 and 2021 must be approached
more cautiously.
• In general we have found via multiple imputation that comparisons of
status and growth results from 2019 to 2021 are defensible.
• Whether a school’s results support cross-year comparison depends
more on the size of the school than on the participation rate/
enrollment change.
• The following are preliminary academic impact results at the school
level represented as bubble plots that can be used to help identify
students/schools in the greatest need of assistance.
RI SGP Calculations 2021
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: ELA Improvement 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 2.6% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
0% 2% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: ELA Modest to None 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 20.5% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
45.5% 25.5% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: ELA Moderate 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 35.4% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
18.2% 27.5% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: ELA Large 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 23.1% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
27.3% 21.6% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: ELA Severe 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 14.4% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
9.1% 23.5% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: Mathematics Improvement 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 5.1% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
16.7% 0% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: Mathematics Modest to None 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 13.8% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
16.7% 38.9% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: Mathematics Moderate 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 13.8% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
33.3% 5.6% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: Mathematics Large 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 32.8% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
16.7% 11.1% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
School Level COVID Academic Impact
RICAS: Mathematics Severe 2019 Growth by Achievement
Higher Achievement Higher Achievement
Lower Growth 30.3% Higher Growth
School Size
50 Students
100 Students
16.7% 44.4% 250 Students
500 Students
2019 Percent Proficient
COVID Impact ES
2021 SGP − 2019 SGP
Improvement (> 0.2)
40 Modest to None (−0.2 to 0.2)
Moderate (−0.2 to −0.5)
Large (−0.5 to −0.8)
Achievement
Severe (< −0.8)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Lower Achievement Lower Achievement
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Growth 2019 Median Student Growth Percentile
SGP Analysis Plans post 2021 (2022 and beyond)
• Spring 2021 represents an ideal time to get a snapshot of student
attainment as we are presumably at or near the point of maximal
impact on student attainment.
• That is, recovery has not really begun for most students in
earnest.
• It’s impossible to talk about recovery sensibly without
understanding how big the impact is.
• Monitoring recovery will be at least as critical as monitoring the impact of
the pandemic on student achievement.
• Beware the K-shaped recovery!
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Communication of Results in 2021
• Technical challenges to the calculation of growth in 2021 are likely
minor compared to communication challenges.
• State reporting is, in general, highly aligned with accountability.
• Even though analyses outlined herein deal with status/growth, they
don’t necessarily align with accountability narratives.
• It is critical for leadership (at the highest level) to map out a
communication plan and then build analytics and reporting to support
that plan.
• Without a well considered, disciplined and coordinated communication
plan, accountability narratives are likely to take over.
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Summary of Findings
• SGP analyses were successfully conducted for both RICAS and WIDA-
ACCESS.
• Results of the analyses suggest large academic impacts on students due
to the pandemic.
• Results are larger in math and in ELA
• Results are uniformly large across most demographic subgroups.
• Results show variation across academic subgroups (e.g., high versus low
achievers in some content areas).
• Academic impact varied greatly by schools.
• Recovery from impacts this large will likely take multiple years and
require additional supports beyond that provided by normal schooling.
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Odds & Ends for Discussion
• Massachusetts and Rhode Island use the same test (though it’s a
little complicated this year/2021)
• MA and RI both have their own baseline growth norms/coefficient
matrices in SGPmatrices package.
• Would it be of interest to run RI data with MA growth norms and
compare? Would take < 1 hour to run
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SGP Goodness of Fit Plots: RICAS ELA
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SGP Goodness of Fit Plots: RICAS ELA
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SGP Goodness of Fit Plots: RICAS Mathematics
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SGP Goodness of Fit Plots: RICAS Mathematics
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About this copy
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in 2021: What do state summative assessments tell us — Arizona Department of Education, August 25, 2021.
This is an image-based copy of the original PowerPoint slides; builds and animations are flattened.