Baseline SGP: What is Recovery
• Given the negative pandemic impacts, any recovery implies learning acceleration.
• However, not all acceleration can be considered recovery
• Acceleration versus 2021 versus acceleration versus 2019
V-Shaped Recovery (> 60)
60 U-Shaped Recovery (50 to 60)
Median 2021 Baseline SGP 50 Median 2022 Baseline SGP
L-Shaped “Recovery” (40 to 50)
30 30 Note: Any median SGP above 30
Downward Spiral (< 40)
in 2022 would be considered
acceleration. But only values
10 above 50 would be su cient to
1 catch up to where students
would have been absent the
pandemic.
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Baseline- versus Cohort-Referenced Targets
• Growth Targets presume a desired achievement outcome (e.g., pro ciency) and a time frame to reach it.
• The achievement outcome and the time frame are the same regardless of whether we use baseline or cohort-referenced
norms
• Reality 1: Speed Limit 55mph • Reality 2: Speed Limit 75mph
• Destination is 150 miles away • Destination is 150 miles away
• “Normal” time to arrive 2 hours 45 minutes • “Normal” time to arrive: 2 hours.
• We don’t know which reality we are in right now.
• If the goal is to reach our destination in 2 hours, (pre-pandemic) rates of travel show this is typical. (Pandemic) rates of
travel show this is extraordinary.
• The destination and time frame is still the same. The baseline SGP would be relative to Reality 2 and the cohort-
referenced SGP would be relative to Reality 1.
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About this copy
Recovery — Indiana Technical Advisory Committee, January 27, 2022.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.