Utah SGP Growth Calculations in 2022
Operational and Investigative Considerations
Damian Betebenner
Center for Assessment
Utah State Board of Education
TAC Meeting
January 26th, 2022
Calculation of SGPs in 2022. A look back to 2021
• Not surprisingly 2021 presented numerous challenges in the
administration of state assessments as well as the calculation of
SGPs based upon those assessments.
• Overall, analyses went extremely well.
• Even in states with very challenging testing issues (e.g., remote
and in-person testing, non-parallel forms, and low participation)
the psychometrics seemed to hold up well.
• We begin with a quick recap of what was done in 2021 since
there is much overlap with what will be done in 2022.
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
SGP Analysis Performed in 2021
• In 2021, two types of SGP analyses were conducted with RISE
data:
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from
the 2019 to 2021 students. These growth norms yield cohort means/
median SGPs of 50 and obscure COVID-19 academic impact.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created
using 2019 and prior data. These growth growth analyses don’t have
mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall
COVID-19 academic impact.
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
SGP Analysis To Be Performed in 2022
• In 2022, the same two types of SGP analyses will be conducted
with RISE data:
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from
the 2021 to 2022 students. It’s possible for grades 6, 7, and 8 to use pre-
covid 2019 as a second prior. We need to discuss whether this potential
second prior is desirable. These growth norms yield cohort means/
median SGPs of 50 and obscure COVID-19 academic impact.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created
using 2018 to 2019 data. These growth growth analyses don’t have
mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall
COVID-19 academic impact.
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
SGP Analysis Plans for 2022
• Cohort referenced SGPs
• Growth norms created from the current cohort of students.
• Mean/median will by 50 for all grade x content area analyses
• Cannot investigate overall impact & recover of the pandemic on students.
• Can investigate differential impact & recovery of the pandemic on students.
• Does not require scale stability across years.
• Projections possible
• Baseline referenced SGPs.
• Growth norms created from historical (i.e., pre-COVID) cohorts of students.
• Mean/median 50 for historical cohort, not necessarily 50 for current cohort.
• Extent of deviation from (i.e. below) 50 is indicative of less learning/pandemic related academic impact.
• Mean SGP deviation of 5 corresponds to an effect size of 0.18.
• Can investigate BOTH overall impact & recovery as well as differential impact & recovery.
• Requires scale stability across years.
• Projections possible
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
SGP Analysis Plans for 2021 & 2022
• Less than typical participation in 2021 complicated comparisons with
2019 data.
• Compared to other states, participation was still excellent.
• State education data is exemplary in terms of identifying who should test.
• We applied multiple-imputation procedures based upon findings to
create inferred values for missing students for summary analyses.
• In 2022, missing 2021 data will impede the calculation of growth for a
small percentage of students with no prior scores
• We will apply multiple imputation to those missing data as well to
evaluate the impact the missing data has on summary results.
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
SGP Analysis Plans for 2021 & 2022
• With comparable results we can quantify pandemic related
academic impact & recovery by several factors including:
• At the state level
• By region/district/school
• By mode of education (remote/hybrid/in-person).
• Attendance
• Demographic and academic subgroups including ethnicity, poverty
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 3
Utah COVID−19 Academic Impact All Students
Status: Grade 3 2019 to Grade 3 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 3 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 3 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
2019 Percentiles (Obser ved)
2021 Percentiles (Obser ved)
Overall
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
3 High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Participation
Total Status Growth
2019 48,623 48,623 (100.0%) NA
300 −0.5 2021 45,208 41,551 (91.9%) NA
2019: 46.8% Proficient
ELA Grade 3
2021: 43.5% Proficient
Grade 3 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
No Growth Data 2019 & 2021 Grade 3 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 3 Students 232 (0.00) 292 (0.00) 329 (0.00) 368 (0.00) 427 (0.00) 329 (0.00)
2021 Grade 3 Students 204 (−0.18) 275 (−0.18) 321 (−0.18) 363 (−0.18) 421 (−0.18) 316 (−0.18)
Decrease (Obser ved) −28.7 (−0.41) −17.8 (−0.25) −7.9 (−0.11) −4.6 (−0.07) −7.0 (−0.10) −13 (0.18)
Decrease (+ Imputed) −25.4 (−0.37) −15.9 (−0.23) −8.9 (−0.13) −9.3 (−0.13) −10.0 (−0.14) −14 (0.20)
Count Observed 2019 9,762 9,899 9,868 9,543 9,551 48,623
Count Observed 2021 8,358 8,384 8,377 8,182 8,250 41,551
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
0.45 2021 to 2019 Grade 3 Status Change (Obser ved)
30 2021 to 2019 Grade 3 Status Change (+ Imputed)
Grade 3 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Nor m)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 4
Utah COVID−19 Academic Impact All Students
Status: Grade 4 2019 to Grade 4 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 4 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
2019 Percentiles (Obser ved)
2021 Percentiles (Obser ved)
Overall
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact High
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
High High Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 Participation
Total Status Growth
−0.5 2019 49,547 49,547 (100.0%) NA
−1 2021 46,522 42,805 (92.0%) NA
2019: 47.3% Proficient
ELA Grade 4 125
2021: 38.6% Proficient
Grade 4 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
No Growth Data 2019 & 2021 Grade 4 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 4 Students 260 (0.00) 331 (0.00) 376 (0.00) 415 (0.00) 477 (0.00) 369 (0.00)
2021 Grade 4 Students 227 (−0.27) 305 (−0.27) 354 (−0.27) 398 (−0.27) 462 (−0.27) 349 (−0.27)
Decrease (Obser ved) −32.4 (−0.42) −23.9 (−0.31) −17.6 (−0.23) −15.0 (−0.19) −15.7 (−0.20) −20 (0.27)
Decrease (+ Imputed) −29.3 (−0.38) −21.9 (−0.28) −18.1 (−0.23) −19.1 (−0.25) −18.9 (−0.24) −21 (0.28)
Count Observed 2019 9,952 10,903 10,194 8,627 9,871 49,547
Count Observed 2021 8,584 8,667 8,625 8,433 8,496 42,805
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 Grade 4 Status Change (Obser ved)
30 0.40 2021 to 2019 Grade 4 Status Change (+ Imputed)
Grade 4 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Nor m)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 6
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 4 2019 to Grade 6 2021 Status: Grade 6 2019 to Grade 6 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 6 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Observed + Imputed
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2.5
2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed) 2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
Moderate
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 2019 to 2021 Academic Impact
Observed
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Modest to None Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score
60 60 Participation
30 30 −0.5 Total Status Growth
2019: 48.8% Proficient
2021: 45.0% Proficient
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 6 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 6 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 6 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 6 Students 50 50 50 51 50 50 2019 Grade 6 Students 299 (0.00) 383 (0.00) 434 (0.00) 480 (0.00) 545 (0.00) 426 (0.00)
2021 Grade 6 Students 46 46 41 38 36 41 2021 Grade 6 Students 288 (−0.11) 377 (−0.11) 424 (−0.11) 466 (−0.11) 531 (−0.11) 416 (−0.11)
Academic Impact (Observed) −4.0 −4.0 −9.0 −13.0 −14.0 −9.0 Decrease (Observed) −10.5 (−0.12) −6.0 (−0.07) −8.4 (−0.10) −10.9 (−0.13) −13.4 (−0.15) −10 (0.11)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −4.0 −4.0 −9.0 −13.5 −13.8 −8.9 Decrease (+ Imputed) −10.2 (−0.12) −7.0 (−0.08) −9.4 (−0.11) −12.1 (−0.14) −14.8 (−0.17) −10 (0.12)
Count Observed 2019 8,349 9,735 9,997 9,206 7,974 45,261 Count Observed 2019 10,302 10,220 10,593 9,880 9,527 50,522
Count Observed 2021 8,070 8,563 8,607 8,157 7,704 41,101 Count Observed 2021 8,886 8,755 8,952 8,749 8,647 43,989
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 2021 to 2019 Grade 6 Status Change (Observed)
30 30 0.35 2021 to 2019 Grade 6 Status Change (+ Imputed)
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed)
0.77: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.30
0.99: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 6 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 7
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 5 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Status: Grade 7 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 7 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 7 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Observed + Imputed
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2.5
2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed) 2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
Moderate
Observed
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 2 2019 to 2021 Academic Impact
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Modest to None Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score
60 Participation
30 30 −0.5 Total Status Growth
2019: 44.0% Proficient
2021: 41.7% Proficient
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 7 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 7 Students 302 (0.00) 386 (0.00) 436 (0.00) 481 (0.00) 546 (0.00) 429 (0.00)
2021 Grade 7 Students 51 48 43 40 43 45 2021 Grade 7 Students 307 (−0.01) 384 (−0.01) 432 (−0.01) 476 (−0.01) 541 (−0.01) 428 (−0.01)
Academic Impact (Observed) 1.0 −2.0 −7.0 −10.0 −7.0 −5.0 Decrease (Observed) 6.8 ( 0.08) −0.1 ( 0.00) −3.4 (−0.04) −4.1 (−0.05) −2.7 (−0.03) −1 (0.01)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) 0.7 −1.0 −7.0 −10.0 −7.0 −4.6 Decrease (+ Imputed) 6.8 ( 0.08) −1.3 (−0.01) −5.3 (−0.06) −6.2 (−0.07) −5.0 (−0.06) −3 (0.03)
Count Observed 2019 8,487 9,296 9,419 9,080 7,065 43,347 Count Observed 2019 10,140 9,693 9,543 10,269 9,308 48,953
Count Observed 2021 7,975 7,910 8,451 8,398 7,855 40,589 Count Observed 2021 8,795 8,705 8,727 8,769 8,580 43,576
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (Observed)
30 30 0.35 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (+ Imputed)
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed)
0.78: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.30
1.00: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 7
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 5 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Status: Grade 7 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 7 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 7 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Observed + Imputed
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2.5
2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed) 2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
Moderate
Observed
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 2 2019 to 2021 Academic Impact
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Modest to None Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score
60 Participation
30 30 −0.5 Total Status Growth
2019: 44.0% Proficient
2021: 41.7% Proficient
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 7 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 7 Students 302 (0.00) 386 (0.00) 436 (0.00) 481 (0.00) 546 (0.00) 429 (0.00)
2021 Grade 7 Students 51 48 43 40 43 45 2021 Grade 7 Students 307 (−0.01) 384 (−0.01) 432 (−0.01) 476 (−0.01) 541 (−0.01) 428 (−0.01)
Academic Impact (Observed) 1.0 −2.0 −7.0 −10.0 −7.0 −5.0 Decrease (Observed) 6.8 ( 0.08) −0.1 ( 0.00) −3.4 (−0.04) −4.1 (−0.05) −2.7 (−0.03) −1 (0.01)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) 0.7 −1.0 −7.0 −10.0 −7.0 −4.6 Decrease (+ Imputed) 6.8 ( 0.08) −1.3 (−0.01) −5.3 (−0.06) −6.2 (−0.07) −5.0 (−0.06) −3 (0.03)
Count Observed 2019 8,487 9,296 9,419 9,080 7,065 43,347 Count Observed 2019 10,140 9,693 9,543 10,269 9,308 48,953
Count Observed 2021 7,975 7,910 8,451 8,398 7,855 40,589 Count Observed 2021 8,795 8,705 8,727 8,769 8,580 43,576
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (Observed)
30 30 0.35 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (+ Imputed)
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed)
0.78: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.30
1.00: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE ELA Grade 8
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 6 2019 to Grade 8 2021 Status: Grade 8 2019 to Grade 8 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 8 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 8 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Observed + Imputed
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status 2019 Percentiles (Observed) Overall
2021 Grade 8 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Observed
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
1.5 2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
1 Moderate Modest to None Modest to None Modest to None Modest to None
2021 Grade 8 Scaled Score
−0.02 Participation
Total Status Growth
−2.5 2019: 43.2% Proficient
−3 2021: 44.2% Proficient
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 8 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 8 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 8 Students 50 51 49 50 50 50 2019 Grade 8 Students 321 (0.00) 406 (0.00) 457 (0.00) 504 (0.00) 568 (0.00) 449 (0.00)
2021 Grade 8 Students 40 46 47 46 46 45 2021 Grade 8 Students 311 (−0.02) 404 (−0.02) 458 (−0.02) 503 (−0.02) 567 (−0.02) 448 (−0.02)
Academic Impact (Observed) −10.0 −5.0 −2.0 −4.0 −4.0 −5.0 Decrease (Observed) −8.4 (−0.09) −2.1 (−0.02) 2.2 ( 0.03) 1.0 ( 0.01) 0.0 ( 0.00) −1 (0.02)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −8.5 −4.0 −2.7 −4.0 −4.0 −5.0 Decrease (+ Imputed) −8.8 (−0.10) −4.8 (−0.05) −1.2 (−0.01) −1.8 (−0.02) −2.6 (−0.03) −3 (0.04)
Count Observed 2019 8,318 8,565 8,478 8,773 7,269 41,403 Count Observed 2019 9,661 9,180 9,984 8,931 9,082 46,838
Count Observed 2021 7,962 7,517 8,010 8,191 8,024 39,704 Count Observed 2021 8,609 8,657 8,582 8,531 8,438 42,817
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 0.35 2021 to 2019 Grade 8 Status Change (Observed)
30 2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed) 30 2021 to 2019 Grade 8 Status Change (+ Imputed)
0.38: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.30
0.83: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 3
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Status: Grade 3 2019 to Grade 3 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 3 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 3 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
9 2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
600 8 2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
6 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
4 Participation
Total Status Growth
1.5 2019 48,568 48,568 (100.0%) NA
2021 45,195 41,478 (91.8%) NA
2019: 50.3% Proficient
Mathematics Grade 3
−2 2021: 46.5% Proficient
Grade 3 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
No Growth Data 2019 & 2021 Grade 3 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 3 Students 263 (0.00) 299 (0.00) 318 (0.00) 337 (0.00) 364 (0.00) 314 (0.00)
2021 Grade 3 Students 254 (−0.12) 292 (−0.12) 314 (−0.12) 333 (−0.12) 359 (−0.12) 310 (−0.12)
Decrease (Observed) −6.6 (−0.18) −5.8 (−0.16) −3.5 (−0.10) −2.9 (−0.08) −2.4 (−0.07) −4 (0.12)
Decrease (+ Imputed) −5.1 (−0.14) −5.7 (−0.16) −5.2 (−0.14) −5.1 (−0.14) −4.0 (−0.11) −5 (0.14)
Count Observed 2019 10,485 9,169 10,881 9,601 8,432 48,568
Count Observed 2021 8,394 8,311 8,546 8,045 8,182 41,478
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
0.90 2021 to 2019 Grade 3 Status Change (Observed)
30 0.85 2021 to 2019 Grade 3 Status Change (+ Imputed)
Grade 3 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 4
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Status: Grade 4 2019 to Grade 4 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 4 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
6.5 2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
2.5 Participation
1.5 Total Status Growth
0.5 2019 49,407 49,407 (100.0%) NA
−0.16 2021 46,525 42,645 (91.7%) NA
2019: 49.2% Proficient
Mathematics Grade 4
2021: 46.3% Proficient
Grade 4 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
No Growth Data 2019 & 2021 Grade 4 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 4 Students 283 (0.00) 326 (0.00) 349 (0.00) 372 (0.00) 408 (0.00) 347 (0.00)
2021 Grade 4 Students 272 (−0.16) 319 (−0.16) 345 (−0.16) 368 (−0.16) 399 (−0.16) 340 (−0.16)
Decrease (Observed) −11.4 (−0.26) −6.8 (−0.15) −4.2 (−0.09) −4.3 (−0.10) −9.2 (−0.21) −7 (0.16)
Decrease (+ Imputed) −9.4 (−0.21) −6.7 (−0.15) −6.1 (−0.14) −6.7 (−0.15) −10.9 (−0.25) −8 (0.18)
Count Observed 2019 10,001 10,309 9,769 10,175 9,153 49,407
Count Observed 2021 8,693 8,554 8,682 8,453 8,263 42,645
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
0.75 2021 to 2019 Grade 4 Status Change (Observed)
30 0.70 2021 to 2019 Grade 4 Status Change (+ Imputed)
Grade 4 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 5
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 3 2019 to Grade 5 2021 Status: Grade 5 2019 to Grade 5 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 3 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 5 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed)
2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 600
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Observed + Imputed
3 Moderate Moderate Moderate High High
2021 Grade 5 Scaled Score
2021 Grade 5 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
Observed
1.5 Participation
Total Status Growth
2019: 49.1% Proficient
−2.5 2021: 43.4% Proficient
2019 Grade 3 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 5 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 5 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 5 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 5 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 5 Students 298 (0.00) 353 (0.00) 383 (0.00) 411 (0.00) 451 (0.00) 378 (0.00)
2021 Grade 5 Students 40 39 37 36 32 37 2021 Grade 5 Students 291 (−0.15) 345 (−0.15) 375 (−0.15) 402 (−0.15) 438 (−0.15) 370 (−0.15)
Academic Impact (Observed) −10.0 −11.0−13.0−14.0 −18.0 −13.0 Decrease (Observed) −6.5 (−0.12) −7.9 (−0.15) −7.4 (−0.14) −7.4 (−0.14) −10.9 (−0.20) −8 (0.15)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −10.0 −11.0−14.0−15.1 −18.0 −13.0 Decrease (+ Imputed) −6.9 (−0.13) −8.6 (−0.16) −8.5 (−0.16) −8.5 (−0.16) −11.8 (−0.22) −9 (0.16)
Count Observed 2019 9,116 10,0539,5528,858 7,948 45,527 Count Observed 2019 10,269 10,155 10,513 10,331 9,331 50,599
Count Observed 2021 7,975 8,5788,0688,160 7,296 40,077 Count Observed 2021 8,693 8,549 8,705 8,448 8,568 42,963
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 0.60 2021 to 2019 Grade 5 Status Change (Observed)
30 2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed) 30 0.55 2021 to 2019 Grade 5 Status Change (+ Imputed)
0.50 0.73: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed)
0.99: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 3 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 5 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 6
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 4 2019 to Grade 6 2021 Status: Grade 6 2019 to Grade 6 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 6 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed)
2019 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 600
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
Observed + Imputed
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
Observed
Moderate Moderate High High Moderate
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score
Participation
Total Status Growth
−2 2019: 39.2% Proficient
2021: 33.1% Proficient
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 6 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 6 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 6 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 6 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 6 Students 321 (0.00) 385 (0.00) 418 (0.00) 446 (0.00) 487 (0.00) 410 (0.00)
2021 Grade 6 Students 39 38 35 34 38 37 2021 Grade 6 Students 313 (−0.14) 374 (−0.14) 407 (−0.14) 437 (−0.14) 480 (−0.14) 402 (−0.14)
Academic Impact (Observed) −11.0 −12.0 −15.0 −16.0 −12.0 −13.0 Decrease (Observed) −6.9 (−0.12) −9.1 (−0.15) −10.6 (−0.18) −8.9 (−0.15) −7.0 (−0.12) −8 (0.14)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −10.2 −12.0 −15.8 −16.0 −13.0 −13.0 Decrease (+ Imputed) −7.6 (−0.13) −10.3 (−0.17) −12.0 (−0.20) −10.3 (−0.17) −8.3 (−0.14) −9 (0.16)
Count Observed 2019 8,689 9,703 9,326 8,632 8,795 45,145 Count Observed 2019 10,472 10,175 9,980 9,834 9,921 50,382
Count Observed 2021 7,913 8,753 8,124 7,912 7,885 40,587 Count Observed 2021 8,796 8,662 8,791 8,773 8,555 43,577
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 0.55 2021 to 2019 Grade 6 Status Change (Observed)
30 2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed) 30 0.50 2021 to 2019 Grade 6 Status Change (+ Imputed)
0.45 0.5: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed)
0.97: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 4 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 6 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 7
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 5 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Status: Grade 7 2019 to Grade 7 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 7 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 7 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status 2019 Percentiles (Observed) Overall
Observed + Imputed
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2021 Percentiles (Observed)
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 600
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Observed
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
2021 Grade 7 Scaled Score
70 0.5 Participation
−0.5 Total Status Growth
−2.5 2019: 45.1% Proficient
2021: 41.2% Proficient
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 7 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 7 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 7 Students 348 (0.00) 409 (0.00) 444 (0.00) 475 (0.00) 514 (0.00) 437 (0.00)
2021 Grade 7 Students 38 38 36 36 40 37 2021 Grade 7 Students 333 (−0.13) 401 (−0.13) 436 (−0.13) 467 (−0.13) 510 (−0.13) 429 (−0.13)
Academic Impact (Observed) −12.0 −12.0 −14.0 −14.0 −10.0 −13.0 Decrease (Observed) −13.9 (−0.23) −7.2 (−0.12) −6.7 (−0.11) −6.4 (−0.11) −3.0 (−0.05) −8 (0.13)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −12.0 −11.3 −13.8 −14.0 −10.2 −12.4 Decrease (+ Imputed) −14.0 (−0.24) −9.2 (−0.16) −8.9 (−0.15) −8.6 (−0.14) −4.6 (−0.08) −10 (0.15)
Count Observed 2019 8,364 8,473 8,558 8,116 7,349 40,860 Count Observed 2019 9,583 9,083 9,698 9,083 8,949 46,396
Count Observed 2021 7,406 7,513 8,338 7,601 7,291 38,149 Count Observed 2021 8,330 8,258 8,191 8,313 8,128 41,220
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 0.55 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (Observed)
30 2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed) 30 0.50 2021 to 2019 Grade 7 Status Change (+ Imputed)
0.45: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.45
0.57: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference 0.40
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 5 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 7 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
RISE Mathematics Grade 8
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact All Students
Growth: Grade 6 2019 to Grade 8 2021 Status: Grade 8 2019 to Grade 8 2021 Summary
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score Decile Cuts 2019 Grade 8 Scaled Score
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
Grade 8 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Observed + Imputed
2017 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status 2 2019 Percentiles (Observed) Overall
2021 Grade 8 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
Observed
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 2021 Percentiles (Observed)
2019 to 2021 Mean Conditional Status (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact 600 1.5
2021 Percentiles (+ Imputed)
2019 to 2021 Academic Impact Moderate
2019 and 2021 Mean Scaled Scores
Moderate Moderate Moderate High High
2021 Grade 8 Scaled Score
Participation
Total Status Growth
−2.5 2019: 42.9% Proficient
2021: 36.8% Proficient
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Overall Deciles (2019 Norm)
2019 & 2021 Grade 8 Median SGPs by Quintile 2019 & 2021 Grade 8 Mean Scaled/Standardized Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 8 Students 50 50 50 50 50 50 2019 Grade 8 Students 370 (0.00) 447 (0.00) 487 (0.00) 525 (0.00) 580 (0.00) 480 (0.00)
2021 Grade 8 Students 41 39 35 34 32 36 2021 Grade 8 Students 358 (−0.15) 433 (−0.15) 475 (−0.15) 512 (−0.15) 565 (−0.15) 468 (−0.15)
Academic Impact (Observed) −9.0 −11.0 −15.0 −16.0 −18.0 −14.0 Decrease (Observed) −8.1 (−0.11) −10.9 (−0.14) −12.2 (−0.16) −13.0 (−0.17) −14.6 (−0.19) −12 (0.15)
Academic Impact (+ Imputed) −9.0 −10.0 −13.0 −15.6 −17.0 −13.0 Decrease (+ Imputed) −8.9 (−0.12) −13.6 (−0.18) −15.3 (−0.20) −16.1 (−0.21) −17.3 (−0.23) −14 (0.19)
Count Observed 2019 7,780 7,678 7,833 7,861 7,416 38,568 Count Observed 2019 10,039 8,566 8,983 9,272 9,071 45,931
Count Observed 2021 7,190 7,268 7,398 7,580 7,079 36,515 Count Observed 2021 8,313 8,262 8,328 8,080 8,217 41,200
2021 to 2019 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (Observed) 2021 to 2019 Grade 8 Status Change (Observed)
30 30 0.40 2021 to 2019 Grade 8 Status Change (+ Imputed)
2021 to 2019 SGP Difference (+ Imputed)
0.71: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
2021 to 2019 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) 0.35
0.99: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference 0.30
2019 to 2021
2019 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Percentile Rank and Scaled Scores (2019 Norm)
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact Overview
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
All Students Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Free/reduced Lunch Students High High Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate Moderate High High High Moderate Moderate
Non−Free/reduced Lunch Students Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High
IEP Students High High Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
African American Students Moderate High Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate High High High High
Asian Students Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate Moderate High High High High
White Students Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Hispanic/latino Students High High Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate Moderate Moderate High High Moderate Moderate
ELL Students High Severe Moderate Moderate Modest to None Moderate High Severe High High High Moderate
Female Students Moderate High Modest to None Moderate Modest to None Modest to None Moderate Moderate High High Moderate High
Male Students Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Utah COVID⌧19 Academic Impact Overview
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile
All Students
Free/reduced Lunch Students
Non−Free/reduced Lunch Students
IEP Students
African American Students
Asian Students
White Students
Hispanic/latino Students
ELL Students
Female Students
Male Students
SGP Analysis Plans post 2021 (2022 and beyond)
• Spring 2021 represented (probably) an ideal time to get a snapshot of
student attainment as we are presumably at or near the point of
maximal impact on student attainment.
• That is, recovery had not really begun for most students in earnest.
• It’s impossible to talk about recovery sensibly without understanding
how big the impact is.
• Monitoring recovery will be at least as critical as monitoring the
impact of the pandemic on student achievement.
• Beware the K-shaped recovery!
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
Four Academic
Recovery
Scenarios with
RISE: V-, U-, L-, and
No-recovery
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
Questions
CO SGP Growth Calculations in 2021
About this copy
Utah SGP Growth Calculations in 2022 — Utah Technical Advisory Committee, January 27, 2022.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.