Rhode Island 2023 Academic Growth
and Recovery
Damian Betebenner
The National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment
September 11th, 2023
RIDE TAC Meeting
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License.
RICAS SGP Analyses in 2023: RICAS
• Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for RICAS data 2023:
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the
2021, 2022 and 2023 students. These growth norms yield cohort means/
median SGPs of 50.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using
from 2017, 2018 and 2019 data. These growth norms (actually, coefficient
matrices) are applied to 2021, 2022, and 2023 data. These growth growth
analyses don’t have mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate
overall COVID-19 academic recovery
• Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for 2023 data using
both cohort and baseline growth norms.
RI Academic Impact Discussion 2021
RICAS SGP Analyses in 2023: PSAT/SAT
• Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for PSAT to SAT data 2023
(single prior SAT growth data):
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the 2022
and 2023 students. These growth norms yield cohort means/median SGPs of 50.
• Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using from
2018 and 2019 data. These growth norms (actually, coefficient matrices) are
applied to 2022, and 2023 data. These growth growth analyses don’t have
mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall COVID-19
academic recovery (NOTE: In the base year, mean/median of SGPs is 50)
• No projections were calculated as the SAT (grade 11) is the last grade
tested in Rhode Island.
RI Academic Impact Discussion 2021
RICAS/PSAT/SAT SGP Analyses
• All analyses were conducted using data supplied by the Rhode Island
Department of Education:
• All analyses were conducted using the SGP package (version 2.1-0.0)
• Source code for the SGP package and the Rhode Island analyses are
available on on GitHub
• Source Code for Analyses: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/
Rhode_Island
• Source Code for SGP Package: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/
SGP
• All analyses were conducted in June and August of 2023. All analyses
converged and goodness-of-fit plots confirmed successful analyses.
RI Academic Impact Discussion 2021
2023 SGP Results
• Mean/Median/Count for cohort referenced and baseline referenced SGP
in ELA and mathematics are as follows:
ELA Mathematics
Grade
Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced
11 (SAT) 49.6/50/8,550 50.4/51/8,550 49.6/50/8,545 48.4/48/8,545
2023 SGP Results
• The cohort referenced results, not surprisingly, all center on 50
• The baseline referenced results (referenced to pre-pandemic growth
norms/rates of learning) show:
• ELA at or below historical rates of learning. Grade 6 and 8 being the
lowest.
• Mathematics at or above historical rates of learning. Elementary
schools grades being the highest.
• In the next section we dig deeper into results with regard to academic
recovery.
A Timeline of the Pandemic
Pandemic
Begins
Spring 2019 Spring 2020 Spring 2021 Spring 2022 Spring 2023
Pre-pandemic (No testing) Academic Impact Academic Recovery Academic Recovery
• Three years on from the onset of the pandemic, concerns regarding the academic
impact of the pandemic on students.
• Thus far, Rhode Island state assessment data (RICAS and WIDA-ACCESS) indicate large
to severe academic impacts and little recovery (stabilization) through 2022.
• The release of NAEP data in 2022 (with pre-pandemic comparisons to 2019) has only
amplified concerns about the impact of the pandemic on students.
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 9
Academic Impact & Recovery
• The pandemic and all the ensuing disruptions functioned/
functions as an “academic headwind”, impeding (in general) the
academic progress of students.
• This is Academic Impact and shows up in educational
assessments as:
▪ Decrease in student growth (i.e. decrease in velocity = deceleration).
▪ Decrease in student attainment.
• Academic Recovery would show up in education assessments
as an increase in student growth (i.e., increase in velocity =
acceleration) leading to an increase in student attainment.
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 10
Assessment Data
• As in 2021 and 2022, to investigate academic recovery in 2023 we
utilized RICAS state summative assessment data as the primary
sources of data
• For attainment comparisons, 2023 data is compared to 2019 data.
• For growth comparisons, current growth data (2022 to 2023) is
compared to pre-pandemic growth data (2018 to 2019).
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 11
Last Year I Mentioned Cautions Going Forward
• Maintaining scales to pre-pandemic years will increasingly become challenging for
states.
• Two views of returning to “normal”
• Is the education system returning to normal?
• Are students impacted by the pandemic returning to normal?
• The education system returning to normal means the education system supports
rates of student learning consistent with what was observed pre-pandemic.
• The education system can return to “normal” without student attainment
returning to normal.
• To catch-up to where they would have been academically, students must learn
at rates exceeding what was observed pre-pandemic (like we need the reverse
of the pandemic to catch-up)
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 12
Attainment Over Time: Are Students Recovering
ELA
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 13
Attainment Over Time: Are Students Recovering
Mathematics
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 14
Growth Over Time: Is the system recovering
ELA
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 15
Growth Over Time: Is the system recovering
Mathematics
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 16
Big Picture
• As we found last year, the Rhode Island’s education system had, on average,
“recovered” to support rates of learning that it did pre-pandemic (Better in
mathematics than in ELA, but near median baseline SGPs of 50).
• To avoid confusion with “student recovery”, we called this “stabilization”
• In 2023, the system followed trend with 2022 and demonstrated, on
average, rates of growth consistent with what was observed pre-pandemic.
• Given the academic losses incurred by students from 2019 to 2021, typical
progress is not, in general, sufficient for student recovery.
• Thus, individual students in most grades in both ELA and mathematics
continue to fall below 2019 attainment levels.
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 17
Big Picture
• Averages can mask important heterogeneity.
• The following illustration dig deeper into how particular
demographic subgroups are doing.
• Note that attainment is a lagging indicator to growth (i.e. learning).
That is, in order for higher attainment to occur, higher rates of
growth/learning must precede it.
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 18
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 19
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 20
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 21
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 22
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 23
2022-2023: Student Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 24
2022-2023: System Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 25
2022-2023: System Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 26
2022-2023: System Academic Recovery Year 2
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 27
Summary
• There are promising and not so promising results in 2022-2023.
• Mathematics, overall, is a bright spot however some subgroups languish more
than others
• ELA seems problematic both from the perspective of getting students caught
up as well as seeing rates of learning in all grades reaching (at a minimum) pre-
pandemic levels.
• Rates of growth for most students are insufficient to catch them up to where they
would have been had the pandemic not occurred.
• In several grades and content areas lower achieving students are demonstrating
rates of learning below what was seen pre-pandemic whereas their high achieving
counterparts are demonstration rates of learning above what was seen pre-
pandemic.
• This suggest a K-shaped recovery where, on average, low achieving students don’t
recover and their higher achieving counterparts do.
Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 28
About this copy
Rhode Island 2023 Academic Growth and Recovery — Rhode Island Department of Education, September 11, 2023.
This is an image-based copy of the original PowerPoint slides; builds and animations are flattened.