COVID-19 Impact & Recovery
October 2023 Update
Damian Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden — Center for Assessment
Utah State Board of Education
October 3rd, 2023
Background
Introductory Concepts and Terminology
COVID-19 Pandemic
• The COVID-19 Pandemic led to, arguably, the largest educational disruption in
the history of the United States.
• Two-and-a-half years into the pandemic and the impacts of the pandemic are still
being felt.
• The pandemic impacted students academically, emotionally, physically, and
financially.
• In this overview, we focus address three things:
• Academic Impact: What is it and what was happened to students in Utah?
• Academic Recovery: What is it and what is happening to students in Utah
currently?
• Now What?: How can impact and recovery data be leveraged to help
students going forward? ROI and other evidence-based investigations of
what is working.
What is Academic Impact?
• The pandemic and all the ensuing disruptions functioned/
functions as an “academic headwind”, impeding (in general)
the academic progress of students.
• Headwinds impede progress in two ways:
▪ They slow one’s rate of progress (speedometer)
▪ And by slowing one’s rate of progress, less distance is traveled (odometer).
• In education, these two impediments manifest as:
▪ Decrease in student growth (i.e., decrease in velocity = deceleration).
▪ Decrease in student attainment.
Learning acceleration/deceleration
• Summarization of assessment data (either for diagnostic or
accountability purposes) emphasizes two types of data results: Status
(i.e., student attainment) and Growth (i.e., student academic progress)
• With the pandemic, the emphasis has changed to look at the
academic impact
• Impact is synonymous with declaration
• Recovery is synonymous with acceleration
▪ Deceleration, by definition, is the change in velocity (i.e., a decrease in growth)
▪ Acceleration, by definition, is the change in velocity (i.e., increase in growth
▪ To understand whether and the extent to which recovery is occurring,
one must understand the magnitude of impact.
Assessment Data
• We investigated the impacts of the pandemic across two time frames:
• Impact: Spring 2020 through Summer 2021
• Recovery Year 1: Fall 2021 through Summer 2022
• Recovery Year 2: Fall 2022 through Summer 2023
• To investigate the impact & recovery, we utilized RISE State Summative
Assessment Data
• Impact: RISE Spring 2019 to Spring 2021 (RISE testing canceled in
• Recovery Year 1: RISE Spring 2021 to Spring 2022
• Recovery Year 2: RISE Spring 2022 to Spring 2023
Assessment Data
• We investigated academic impact by using two complementary
analyses:
• Change in attainment (odometer): Equi-percentile scale score
change (all grades)
• Change in growth (speedometer): Baseline referenced student
growth percentile (SGP) change (grades for which growth is
calculated)
Impact
From Spring 2020 to Summer 2021
RISE: Spring 2019 and Spring 2021 Assessments
Impact Phase
• During the 2020-2021 academic year, schooling was not normal for a large percentage of
students.
• Impacts to schooling in Utah were less than observed in many other parts of the United
States.
• The expectation is that education disruptions impacted instruction which in turn impacted
(slowed down) student learning.
• RISE assessment data spring 2019 and 2021 was utilized to examine impact.
• We examine impact along a continuum from severe to none:
Status Impact
Black Line: 2019 (pre-covid) scaled-score
distribution.
Red line: 2021 scaled-score distribution.
The impact of the pandemic on student
achievement (decrease) is illustrated as the area
between the black line (top) and the red line
(bottom)
X-axis: Grade 8 percentile rank
The horizontal distance between the curves at
the proficiency cut level (horizontal dashed blue
line) illustrates the decrease in the percent
proficient.
A dotted red line indicates the distribution of
scores, including missing students derived
through multiple imputations.
Status Impact
Red line: 2021-2019 scaled-score distribution
difference.
The impact of the pandemic (difference in the
distributions) on student achievement
(decrease) is indicated by the red line.
X-axis: Grade 8 percentile rank
Average impact z = -0.15 standard units.
A dotted red line indicates the distribution of
scores, including missing students derived
through multiple imputations.
Marginally larger impact for high-achieving
students than lower-achieving students.
Growth Impact
Black Line: (pre-covid) conditional scaled-score
distribution — Grade 8/2019 conditioned on Grade
Red line: conditional scaled-score distribution — Grade
8/2021 conditioned on Grade 6/2019
The impact of the pandemic on student achievement
(decrease) is illustrated as the area between the black
line (top) and red line (bottom)
X-axis: Grade 6 Scaled Score
Fixing a level on the x-axis, the vertical distance between
the curves is the average decrease in scale score
associated with the pandemic for a student at that 5th
grade level
A dotted red line indicates the distribution of scores
including missing students derived through multiple
imputation.
Growth Impact
Red line: SGP Difference Grade 7/2021 - Grade
5/2019 conditional scaled score distribution
X-axis: Grade 5 Scaled Score
Median SGP 2019 Grade 8: 50
Median SGP 2021 Grade 8: 36
Top quintile students median SGP dropped
from 50 to 32, whereas bottom quintile
students dropped from 50 to 41 indicating a
larger impact amongst higher achieving
students.
Summary
We summarize the academic impact both
overall and by achievement quintile
For Grade 8 mathematics, the overall
academic impact for students was large (z
decrease = -0.15 and median SGP decrease
Academic impact was not uniform across
students. For this grade/content area,
higher-achieving students were more
severely impacted than lower-achieving
students.
Overall Impact
• ELA
• Decreases in the percent proficient ranged from upper single digits in lower grades to
lower single digits in higher grades.
• Median (baseline) SGPs ranged from lower 40s (lower grades) to mid 40s (higher grades)
• Impacts were categorized as moderate
• Mathematics
• Decreases in percent proficient were in mid to upper single digits.
• Median (baseline) SGP decreases ranged from the upper single digits to lower double
digits.
• Impacts were categorized as moderate to large.
• Moderate impacts, under ideal circumstances can be made up in a year whereas large to
severe impacts likely require multiple years of above-average (pre-pandemic) growth to
recover to where students would have been had the pandemic not occurred.
Recovery Year 1
From Fall 2021 to Summer 2022
RISE: Spring 2021 and Spring 2022 Assessments
Recovery Phase
• During the 2021-2022 academic year, schooling returned to normal for most
students.
• The hope was that a return to normal would lead to recovery of the academic
losses incurred by students.
• Because learning slowed during the initial phase of the pandemic, to make up for
those losses, learning must accelerate to rates above normal in order to catch up
for those losses.
• Data from two sources was utilized to examine whether recovery is occurring:
• RISE data from 2021 and 2022
• We try to distinguish between: Recovery, Stabilization, Continued Deterioration
Two Types of Recovery: System & Student
• We elaborate on the results from the recovery analyses in two ways:
• System level recovery: Is the education system supporting rates
of learning that are comparable to what it was prior to the
pandemic?
• Student level recovery: Are student attaining at levels that are
comparable to what they were prior to the pandemic.
• Previously, we focused mostly on system level impact: examining
rates of learning in 2021 compared to those prior to the pandemic.
• We continue system level analyses but add additional focus in on
student level recovery.
Two Types of Recovery: System & Student
• System level recovery
• Comparison of 2019 and 2022 same grade student growth: We examine
change in baseline student growth (SGPs) for 2019 students and 2023 students
utilizing coefficient matrices derived from pre-pandemic cohorts of students.
• Student level recovery
• Comparison of 2019 to 2022 same grade attainment: We examine equi-
percentile change in attainment for 2019 students and 2023 students.
System Recovery: Cohort-Based Comparison (RISE)
Compare observed versus expected attainment for a cohort of students
Grade 3
No Testing due to
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6 COVID-19 Pandemic
Grade 7
Grade 8
Student Recovery: Cross-Sectional Comparison (RISE)
Compare same grade/content area attainment across di erent years
Grade 3
No Testing due to
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6 COVID-19 Pandemic
Grade 7
Grade 8
ff
Four Academic
“Recovery”
Scenarios with
RISE: V-, U-, L-, and
No-recovery
Baseline SGP: What is Recovery?
• Given the negative pandemic impacts, any recovery implies learning
acceleration.
• However, not all acceleration can be considered recovery
• Acceleration versus 2021 versus acceleration versus 2019
V-Shaped Recovery (> 60)
60 U-Shaped Recovery (50 to 60)
Median 2021 Baseline SGP 50 Median 2022 Baseline SGP
L-Shaped “Recovery” (40 to 50)
Note: Any median SGP above 30
Downward Spiral (< 40) in 2022 would be considered
20 acceleration. But only values
above 50 would be sufficient to
begin catching students up to
where they would have been
absent the pandemic.
Recovery Phase Year 1
• As mentioned previously, we distinguish between student level recovery and
system level recovery this year.
• Because student level recovery utilizes status comparisons between 2019 and
2022 and system level recovery utilizes growth comparisons between 2019 and
2022, status and growth was characterized in three ways:
• Below: Attainment/Growth of students is less in 2022 than in 2019
• Comparable: Attainment/Growth of students is approximately the same in
2022 as in 2019.
• Above: Attainment/Growth of students is greater in 2022 than in 2019
Status Recovery
Black Line: 2019 (covid) scaled-score
distribution.
Red line: 2022 scaled-score distribution.
The recovery from the pandemic on
student achievement (increase) is
illustrated as the area between the black
line (bottom) and the red line (top)
X-axis: Grade 5 percentile rank
The horizontal distance between the curves
at the proficiency cut level (horizontal
dashed blue line) illustrates the increase in
percent proficient.
Status Recovery
Red line: 2022 - 2021 scaled-score
distribution difference.
The recovery from the pandemic
(difference in the distributions) on
student achievement (increase) is
indicated by the red line.
X-axis: Grade 5 percentile rank
Average impact z = +0.23 standard
units.
Larger recovery for high achieving
students than lower achieving students.
Growth Recovery
Black Line: (pre-covid) conditional scaled-score
distribution — Grade 5/2019 conditioned on
Grade 4/2018
Red line: conditional scaled-score distribution
— Grade 5/2022 conditioned on Grade 4/2021
The recovery from the pandemic on student
achievement (increase) is illustrated as the area
between the black line (bottom) and the red
line (top)
X-axis: Grade 4 Scaled Score
Fixing a level on the x-axis, the vertical distance
between the curves is the average increase in
scale score associated with the recovery for a
student at that 5th-grade level.
Growth Recovery
Red line: SGP Difference Grade
5/2022 - Grade 4/2021
conditional scaled score
distribution
X-axis: Grade 4 Scaled Score
Median SGP 2019 Grade 5: 50
Median SGP 2022 Grade 5: 65
The largest acceleration in
growth was seen for quintiles 1
to 4, with median SGPs ranging
from 65 to 69.
Summary
We summarize the academic recovery both
overall and by achievement quintile
For Grade 5 mathematics, the overall
academic recovery for students was large (z
increase = 0.23 and median SGP increase
(over 2019) = +15)
Academic recovery was fairly uniform across
students.
SBA ELA Grade 8
Hawaii 2021 to 2022 COVID⌧19 Academic Recovery Special Education Students
Growth: Grade 6 2019 to Grade 8 2022 Status: Grade 8 2021 to Grade 8 2022 Summary
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
2021 Grade 8 Scaled Score
Observed
All Students
Academic Impact: Overall and by Quintile
2022 Grade 8 Scaled Score Decile Cuts
Grade 8 Scaled/Standardized Score and Achievement Level Cuts
Special Education Students
2018 to 2019 Mean Conditional Status
2021 Percentiles (Observed)
Overall
2021 to 2022 Mean Conditional Status (Observed) 1 2022 Percentiles (Observed)
2021 to 2022 Growth Impact 80 2021 to 2022 Status Impact Deterioration
2021 and 2022 Mean Scaled Scores
Deterioration Deterioration Deterioration Small N Small N
2022 Grade 8 Scaled Score
Participation
Total Status Growth
2300 2300 2021: 8.1% Proficient
2022: 8.0% Proficient
Growth/Status Change Legend
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Overall and Subgroup Percentile Ranks
Deterioration Stabilization Recovery
2019 & 2022 Grade 8 Median SGPs by Quintile 2021 & 2022 Grade 8 Mean Scaled (Standardized) Scores by Quintile
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
2019 Grade 8 Students 42.0 46.0 43.5 48.5 63.0 44.0 2021 Grade 8 Students 2400 (−1.13) 2504 (−1.13) 2568 (−1.13) 2627 (−1.13) 2691 (−1.13) 2448 (−1.13)
2022 Grade 8 Students 34.5 33.0 34.0 39.0 68.0 34.0 2022 Grade 8 Students 2389 (−1.22) 2498 (−1.22) 2561 (−1.22) 2623 (−1.22) 2690 (−1.22) 2438 (−1.22) Calculations suppressed
Academic Impact (Observed) −7.5 −13.0 −9.5 −9.5 5.0 −10.0 Change (Observed) −10 (−0.10) −6 (−0.06) −8 (−0.07) −4 (−0.03) −1 (−0.01) −10 (−0.09)
Count Observed 2019 777 255 96 18 7 1,153 Count Observed 2021 665 250 87 28 12 1,042
due to small group N (< 50)
Count Observed 2022 662 202 59 29 5 957 Count Observed 2022 809 247 104 46 15 1,221
2022 to 2021 Scaled/Standardized Score Difference
2022 to 2021 SGP Difference (Observed) 2022 to 2021 Grade 8 Status Change (Observed)
2022 to 2021 Conditional Status Difference (Observed) −0.51: Correlation SGP and Status Percentile Change
Conditional Status/Growth Change
25 0.55: Correlation SGP and Conditional Status Difference 25 0.25
2021 to 2022
2021 Grade 6 Scaled Score with Decile & Achievement Level Cuts Grade 8 Percentile Ranks and Scaled Scores (2021 Norm)
Overall Recovery
• Analysis of 2022 RISE and ACCESS data indicates many trends in Utah
to be happy about.
• In both ELA and mathematics, learning acceleration was at least at the
level of stabilization and, in many cases, could be considered genuine
recovery.
• Compared to a dozen other states where the Center conducted these
analyses, Utah comes out as the best in terms of pandemic recovery.
• Results from the 2023 data will be critical to assess whether these
exemplary rates of learning (beyond what the state experience pre-
COVID) are being maintained.
Recovery Year 2
From Fall 2022 to Summer 2023
SBA: Spring 2022 and Spring 2023 Assessments
Recovery Phase Year 2
• As mentioned previously, we distinguish between student level recovery and
system level recovery this year.
• Because student level recovery utilizes status comparisons between 2019 and
2023 and system level recovery utilizes growth comparisons between 2019 and
2023, status and growth was characterized in three ways:
• Below: Attainment/Growth of students is less in 2023 than in 2019
• Comparable: Attainment/Growth of students is approximately the same in
2023 as in 2019.
• Above: Attainment/Growth of students is greater in 2023 than in 2019
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2022 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic System Recovery Grade & Content Area
Behind Ahead System Recovery characterizes the extent
Status Change to which rates of student learning (i.e., growth)
have returned to pre−pandemic rates of learning.
Calculations suppressed
Behind Comparable Ahead
due to small group N (< 50)
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
All Students Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Economically Disadvantaged Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Non−Economically Disadvantaged Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Special Education Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Asian Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
White Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Hispanic Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Native Hawaiian Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
ELL Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Female Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Male Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2022 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic System Recovery
Grade, Content Area & Achievement Quintile
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile
All Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non−Economically Disadvantaged
Special Education
Asian
White
Hispanic
Native Hawaiian
ELL
Female
Male
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2022 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic System Recovery
Grade, Content Area & Achievement Quintile
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile
All Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non−Economically Disadvantaged
Special Education
Asian
White
Hispanic
Native Hawaiian
ELL
Female
Male
Recovery Phase Year 2
• Though student growth was not as high in 2023 as in 2022, results in Hawai’i
remained above pre-pandemic rates, particularly in Mathematics
Student level recovery
• It is critical to understand that recovery of the system does not imply student level
recovery
• Because students rates of learning slowed so dramatically during the pandemic,
rates of learning necessary to catch students up to where they would have been
would have to be equally dramatic (in the positive direction)
• The following figures illustrate the extent to which student attainment is behind
2019 attainment levels.
• Comparison to 2019 levels is a “low bar” as attainment levels in 2023 had the
pandemic not occurred would almost certainly have been higher than 2019 levels.
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2019 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery Grade & Content Area
Behind Ahead Student Recovery characterizes the extent
Status Change to which student attainment has returned
to pre−pandemic levels of attainment.
Calculations suppressed
Behind Comparable Ahead
due to small group N (< 50)
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
All Students Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Behind
Economically Disadvantaged Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Comparable Behind Behind Behind Behind
Non−Economically Disadvantaged Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Behind
Special Education Behind Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Asian Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
White Comparable Comparable Behind Comparable Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind
Hispanic Behind Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Comparable Behind Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Behind
Native Hawaiian Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Comparable Behind Comparable Behind Behind
ELL Comparable Comparable Comparable Ahead Ahead Ahead Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
Female Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Behind Behind Behind
Male Behind Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable Comparable
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2019 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery
Grade, Content Area & Achievement Quintile
Behind Ahead Student Recovery characterizes the extent
Status Change to which student attainment has returned
to pre−pandemic levels of attainment.
Calculations suppressed
Behind Comparable Ahead
due to small group N (< 50)
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile
All Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non−Economically Disadvantaged
Special Education
Asian
White
Hispanic
Native Hawaiian
ELL
Female
Male
SBA ELA and Mathematics
Hawaii 2019 to 2023 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery
Grade, Content Area & Achievement Quintile
Behind Ahead Student Recovery characterizes the extent
Status Change to which student attainment has returned
to pre−pandemic levels of attainment.
Calculations suppressed
Behind Comparable Ahead
due to small group N (< 50)
ELA Mathematics
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile
All Students
Economically Disadvantaged
Non−Economically Disadvantaged
Special Education
Asian
White
Hispanic
Native Hawaiian
ELL
Female
Male
Recovery Year 2
• In some grades and content areas, student are well behind where their 2019
counterparts were.
• This shows that even though Hawaii’s education system has bounced back well,
large deficits remain to be overcome for thousands of students
• Of particular concern is middle school math, especially for females.
Academic Impact/Recovery Across 6 States
Impact & Recovery
Mathematics
HI4 ELA
15 HI6
HI5
Utah showed large impacts and 10
HI8
HI7
Recovery
HI4
recovery 5
HI3
HI5
HI6
HI8
HI7
Utah’s academic recovery results 0 HI3
Academic Recovery
are the best I have seen −5
nationally −10
A critical “test” of this recovery −20
will be the 2023 results. If rates −25
Deterioration
of learning in 2023 extend those −30
of 2022, then Utah will have −35
come out of the pandemic −40
better than before it started
Large Impact Academic Impact Improvement
Now What
Leveraging Assessment Data to Help Students Overcome COVID-19 Academic Impacts
Exemplar Schools: Impact & Recovery
• Original discussions about examining ROI were redirected to examine Return on
Activities:
• Identify outlier schools in terms of impact/recovery.
• Investigate whether activities (or lack thereof) could potentially be responsible
for the school’s outlier status.
• For schools with plausible activities leading to exemplary recovery, investigate
links to relevant investment/funding.
• Step 1 is to find these outlier schools.
• We investigated schools along two dimensions:
• Academic Impact (2019 to 2021 decrease in student learning)
• Academic Recovery (2021 to 2022 increase in student learning relative to pre-
pandemic 2018-2019 learning)
Exemplar Schools: Impact & Recovery
• As can be seen, Utah and its schools experienced a largely positive 2021-2022
• We’ve created Excel spreadsheets with the identified schools to help to sort
through the many potential criteria to use to select exemplar schools
• As we discussed in Portsmouth, there was some concern that of low motivation
leading to poor results. To examine we filtered on students with very low to very
high and very high to very low growth.
• Filtering out these students led to non-appreciable changes to the impact-
recovery examinations of schools.
About this copy
COVID-19 Impact & Recovery — Utah Department of Education, October 2, 2023.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.