Talks archive, 2020–2026 – 2024 SGP Analyses and Results

2024 SGP Analyses and Results Including COVID-19 Impact & Recovery in New Hampshire Damian Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden Center for Assessment January 29th, 2025

Background Introductory Concepts and Terminology

Academic Recovery in 2024 • The availability of 2024 NHSAS data allows New Hampshire to update COVID-19 recovery analyses. • Spring 2024 marks the third year since the pandemic began and this is the third report: • Summer 2021: Academic Impact • Summer 2022: Academic Recovery Year 1 • Summer 2023: Academic Recovery Year 2 • Summer 2024: Academic Recovery Year 3

Two Types of Recovery in 2024: System & Student • We elaborate on the results from the previous recovery analyses in two ways: • System level recovery: Is the education system supporting rates of learning that are comparable to what it was prior to the pandemic? • Student level recovery: Are students achieving at levels that are comparable to what they were prior to the pandemic? • Previously, we focused mostly on system-level recovery: examining rates of learning in 2021 and 2022 compared to those prior to the pandemic. • We continue examining system level analyses but also focus on student- level recovery.

Two Types of Recovery: System & Student • System-level recovery • Comparison of 2019 and 2024 same-grade student growth: We examined the change in baseline student growth (SGPs) for 2019 students and 2024 students utilizing coefficient matrices derived from pre-pandemic cohorts of students. • Student-level recovery • Comparison of 2019 to 2024 same-grade achievement: We examined the equipercentile change in achievement for 2019 students and 2023 students at same-grade

Student-level recovery • It is critical to understand that recovery of the system does not imply student level recovery • Because students’ rates of learning slowed so dramatically during the pandemic, rates of learning necessary to catch students up to where they would have been would have to be equally dramatic (in the positive direction) • The following figures illustrate the extent to which student attainment is behind 2019 attainment levels. • Comparison to 2019 levels is a “low bar” as attainment levels in 2024, had the pandemic not occurred, would almost certainly have been higher than 2019 levels (based on “typical” rates of yearly improvement) student-level

System Recovery: Cohort-Based Comparison (NHSAS) Compare observed versus expected attainment for a cohort of students Grade 3 Grade 4 No Testing due to Grade 5 COVID-19 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8

Student Recovery: Cross-sectional Comparison (NHSAS) Compare observed versus expected attainment for a cohort of students Grade 3 Grade 4 No Testing due to Grade 5 Grade 6 COVID-19 Grade 7 Grade 8

Recovery Year 1 From Fall 2021 to Summer 2022 NHSAS: Spring 2021 and Spring 2022 Assessments WIDA: Spring 2021 and Spring 2022 Assessments

Recovery Phase Year 1 • Student growth (baseline referenced to pre-pandemic rates of learning) was examined by content area and grade as well as for the major student demographic subgroups. • Achievement (Student Recovery) and Growth (System Recovery) were characterized in three ways: • Lagging: Behind pre-pandemic levels (attainment or growth) • On Par: About the same as pre-pandemic levels (attainment or growth) • Leading: Ahead of pre-pandemic levels (attainment or growth) • Because learning slowed during the initial phase of the pandemic, to make up for those losses, learning must accelerate to rates above normal (i.e., leading)

SAS ELA and Mathematics New Hampshire 2019 to 2022 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery Grade & Content Area Lagging Leading Student Recovery characterizes the extent Status Change −0.38 −0.09 0.12 0.38 to which student attainment has returned to pre−pandemic levels of attainment. Calculations suppressed Lagging On Par Leading due to small group N (< 50) ELA Mathematics Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 All Students Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Economically Disadvantaged Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Non−Economically Disadvantaged Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging African American Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Asian On Par Lagging On Par On Par Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging White Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Hispanic Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Limited English Proficient Lagging Lagging Lagging Leading Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Special Education Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Female Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Male Lagging Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging

2022 SGP Results • Mean/Median/Count for cohort referenced and baseline referenced SGP in ELA and mathematics are as follows: ELA Mathematics Grade Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced

Recovery Year 1 • Analysis of 2022 NHSAS & WIDA ACCESS data indicated two things: • Rates of learning, on average, have returned or are close returning to normal, pre- pandemic levels. That is, the system has more or less recovered. • Student attainment, on average, is still lagging behind because rates of learning have not accelerated enough to catch students up. That is, students have not recovered. • In both ELA and mathematics, learning acceleration from the lows of the pandemic would be considered, on average, to be system stabilization. • System stabilization (a return to normal rates of learning) will be insufficient to catch students up. • Results from 2023 data will be important to assess the state of learning (beyond what the state experience pre-COVID) in New Hampshire.

Recovery Year 3 From Fall 2023 to Summer 2024 NHSAS: Spring 2023 and Spring 2024 Assessments WIDA: Spring 2023 and Spring 2024 Assessments

Recovery Phase Year 3 • We again distinguish between student-level recovery and system-level recovery this year. • Achievement (Student Recovery) and Growth (System Recovery) were characterized in three ways: • Lagging: Behind pre-pandemic levels • On Par: About the same as pre-pandemic levels • Leading: Ahead of pre-pandemic levels

SAS ELA and Mathematics New Hampshire 2019 to 2024 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery Grade & Content Area Lagging Leading Student Recovery characterizes the extent Status Change −0.38 −0.09 0.12 0.38 to which student attainment has returned to pre−pandemic levels of attainment. Calculations suppressed Lagging On Par Leading due to small group N (< 50) ELA Mathematics Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 All Students On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Economically Disadvantaged Lagging Lagging On Par On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Non−Economically Disadvantaged On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging African American On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Asian On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging White On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Hispanic On Par Lagging On Par On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Limited English Proficient On Par Lagging Lagging Leading On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Special Education On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Female On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Male On Par Lagging On Par On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging

2024 SGP Results • Mean/Median/Count for cohort referenced and baseline referenced SGP in ELA and mathematics are as follows: ELA Mathematics Grade Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced

2023 SGP Results • Mean/Median/Count for cohort referenced and baseline referenced SGP in ELA and mathematics are as follows: ELA Mathematics Grade Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced

SAS ELA and Mathematics New Hampshire 2019 to 2024 COVID⌧19 Academic System Recovery Grade & Content Area Lagging Leading System Recovery characterizes the extent Growth Change −30 −7 10 30 to which rates of student learning (i.e., growth) have returned to pre−pandemic rates of learning. Calculations suppressed Lagging On Par Leading due to small group N (< 50) ELA Mathematics Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 No Growth No Growth All Students Data On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par No Growth No Growth Economically Disadvantaged On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Non−Economically Disadvantaged On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth African American Lagging Leading On Par On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Asian On Par On Par Lagging On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par On Par Lagging Data Data No Growth No Growth White On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Hispanic On Par Leading On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Limited English Proficient On Par On Par On Par On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Lagging On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Special Education On Par On Par Leading On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Female On Par Leading On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data No Growth No Growth Male On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Data Data

WIDA ACCESS Composite WIDA NH 2020 to 2024 COVID⌧19 Academic Student Recovery Grade & Content Area Lagging Leading Student Recovery characterizes the extent Status Change −0.38 −0.09 0.12 0.38 to which student attainment has returned to pre−pandemic levels of attainment. Calculations suppressed Lagging On Par Leading due to small group N (< 50) Composite Grade 0 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 All Students On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging Lagging On Par On Par On Par Lagging Lagging Lagging WIDA ACCESS Composite WIDA NH 2020 to 2024 COVID⌧19 Academic System Recovery Grade & Content Area Lagging Leading System Recovery characterizes the extent Growth Change −30 −7 10 30 to which rates of student learning (i.e., growth) have returned to pre−pandemic rates of learning. Calculations suppressed Lagging On Par Leading due to small group N (< 50) Composite Grade 0 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 No Growth All Students Data On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par On Par Leading On Par

Recovery Phase Year 3 • Student growth in ELA in 2024 exceeded pre-pandemic growth (2019) and was similar to the results in 2023. • Student growth in mathematics in 2024 was slightly less than growth in 2019 and was less than growth observed in 2023.

Questions

Recovery Year 2 From Fall 2022 to Summer 2023 SAS: Spring 2022 and Spring 2023 Assessments

Recovery Phase Year 2 • We again distinguish between student-level recovery and system-level recovery this year. • Achievement (Student Recovery) and Growth (System Recovery) were characterized in three ways: • Lagging: Behind pre-pandemic levels • On Par: About the same as pre-pandemic levels • Leading: Ahead of pre-pandemic levels

Recovery Phase Year 2 • Student growth in ELA in 2023 exceeded growth in 2022. • Student growth in mathematics in 2023 was slightly less than growth in 2022. • In both ELA and mathematics, growth remained above pre-pandemic levels (i.e., • This increase in rates of learning led to some groups closing the gap and slowly catching up with pre-pandemic levels of achievement. • We are in the process of compiling results across the numerous states with whom the Center works. Thus far, New Hampshire appears to be performing better than many of the states in terms of accelerating student learning and, in turn, helping students recover.

About this copy

2024 SGP Analyses and Results — New Hampshire Department of Education, January 29, 2025.

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