How Student Growth Percentiles Transform ERB Data into Actionable Insights Damian W Betebenner National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment Austin, TX April 4th, 2025

About Me • Recovering Academic • At the Center for Assessment since 2007 • Developed student growth percentile (SGP) methodology that is currently used by approximately with 25 state assessments as well as ERB and with several other educational assessments. • Currently live just outside of Boston, Massachusetts with wife, daughter, and dog.

Topics • What is student growth and why is it critical to pay attention to? • What is a student growth percentile (SGP)? • How to turn SGPs into actionable insights?

What is student growth?

Terminology • Achievement: A point in time measure/indication of what a student knows and can do. Also referred to as status, attainment. Reported as a scaled score, percentile • Growth: The “change” in the level of achievement associated with an individual student measure at least two points in time. • Improvement: The “change” in the level of achievement associated with two groups of students formed by school or demographic groups (e.g., 2024 versus 2025 outcomes for Grade 4 students in a given school). This is the most common metric of change. • Not all change is “growth”. There are different types of changes and

Why Student Growth? If you care about student achievement, then you care about student growth. • Where you are is a function of where you started and how quickly you’ve travelled since. • Student growth and student attainment/achievement are related in this way. • Distance=Rate x Time • Those who start behind tend to stay behind and those that start ahead tend to stay ahead.

Student Growth Introductory Concepts A Math Story Problem • Whose high jump changed more? Explain your answer. • Whose high jump change is more remarkable? Explain your answer. • Which high jumper improved more? Explain your answer.

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts • There are 3 general approaches of calculating student growth: • Growth as an amount of change (i.e., gain). • Growth as a norm/peer referenced quantity. • Growth as a criterion referenced quantity.

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts • Growth as an amount of change: • What could be more simple? • Like height or weight just calculate the amount of change. • Requires a vertical scale (which ERB has) • Growth = Score Time 2 - Score Time 1 • Not as simple as it seems: • Comparisons between students often leads to wrong conclusions • Interpreting change requires context.

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts Back to the story problem!

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts • Which high jumper improved more: ▪ Judy improved 2 inches. ▪ Anna improved 6 inches. ▪ An inch is an inch!!! ▪ But is an inch really an inch??? ▪ 2 inches for an elite jumper is far more remarkable than 6 inches for a novice.

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts •This is analogous to height/weight measures for infants. •Growth amounts are tricky to interpret and require context. •Peer based comparisons used by growth analyses are a way to acquire that context. An infant male toddler is measured at 2 and 3 years of age and is shown to have grown 4 inches. The magnitude of increase—4 inches—is a well understood quantity that any parent can grasp and calculate at home using a simple yardstick. However, parents leaving their pediatrician’s office knowing only how much their child has grown would likely be wanting for more information: Parents are not interested in an absolute magnitude of growth, but instead in a norm-referenced quantity locating that 4 inch increase alongside the height increases of similar children. 12

Student Growth: Introductory Concepts • Peer-based analyses are also called norm-referenced analyses. • Like with infant height/weight charts, peers are children/student with similar characteristics. • For growth analyses using large scale assessments, peers are students with (at least) the same scale score history on the same tests. • Peer based norms are invaluable in providing context for stakeholders to understand student growth. • The ERB SGP Model creates growth norms for all students using regression (i.e., peer-based) analyses. • These norms allow stakeholders to understand what an ambitious yet reasonable expectation is for each student.

What is a student growth percentile (SGP)?

Student Growth Percentiles • Research on the SGP model began in 2007. • Based upon work in Colorado, the norm-referenced model was extended to include a criterion-referenced component. • Work in other states incorporating the model into state reporting and accountability systems occurred in subsequent years and student growth became more common across state assessment systems. • Goal or the model is to create an individual level growth metric that is informative to different stakeholders ranging from parents to policy makers. • Currently, more than two dozen states and several assessment organizations use SGPs for diagnostic and accountability purposes.

Student Growth Percentiles • Different growth models answer different questions. • Different stakeholder groups ask different questions. • Parents are most concerned about how their child is doing. • To effectively engage parents and communities in a productive conversation about student learning (i.e. growth), a growth model should describe: • What is? How much are students learning/growing. • What should be? How much would we like students to grow/learn. • What is reasonable? How much is it reasonable to expect students to grow/ learn. • Most other growth models do not provide a student level metric. They provide a school summary used for accountability purposes.

Student Growth Percentiles • The calculation of SGPs requires the use of data to derive growth norms. • The production of growth norms utilizes large scale assessment results together with quantile regression analyses to identify growth across 99 levels conditional upon prior achievement. • These established growth norms are then used to produce individual student growth percentiles.

Growth Model: Other Options • Almost all current growth model use large amounts of data to create “norms” against which student growth is judged. • Growth models utilize various forms of regression to adjust for initial student achievement (and, in some instances) other demographic characteristics. • Other growth models include value-added models, value- table models

History of student growth with ERB • Began work with ERB to develop SGPs on their suite of assessments in 2022. • Worked with Dr. Adrienne Hu to refine the methodology to ERB assessment. • ERB began utilizing SGP data in 2024. • ERB creates separate growth norms utilizing historical assessment data for each grade, content area and time-span across which growth is reported. • These historical growth norms are utilized to calculate SGPs in real-time and new assessment data is collected.

Properties of SGPs • An SGP is an individual indicator of student growth (i.e., learning) • An SGP is an integer ranging from 1 to 99 where an SGP of 1 indicate very low growth and an SGP of 99 indicates very high growth. • All students regardless of starting place can have high or low growth — growth is uncorrelated with prior achievement. • Growth is uncorrelated from year-to-year. High growth one year doesn’t indicate growth in the following year. • In the baseline year, SGPs are uniformly distributed between 1 and 99 a mean/median of 50. Groups with mean/median SGPs above 50 demonstrate, on average, higher growth than the baseline cohort and mean/ median SGPs below 50 demonstrate, on average, lower growth than the baseline cohort. • Growth analyses do not include demographic adjustments. Growth differs for different demographic subgroups. • Growth by ethnicity ranges from a median SGP of low 40s to high 50s (depending upon grade and content area) • Economically disadvantaged students have median SGP in mid to low 40s (depending upon grade and content area) • Special needs students have median SGP in low 40s (depending upon grade and content area)

How to turn SGPs into actionable insights?

Turning Data into Information • SGPs are just another piece of data given to people who are drowning in data. • The key: How to turn this data into information that transforms educational processes/practices that improves learning for students. • If student learning/growth improves, then achievement/attainment results will follow. • Growth is the leading indicator, achievement/status is the lagging indicator. • It’s all about growth!

Student Level Insights • Like all data derived from assessments, care must be taken with interpretation — especially with individual student level data — and triangulated with other evidence including classroom observation and other assessment results. • Broadly, an SGP for a student will tell one whether the student learned a lot or little over the previous year. • Depending upon the vocabulary used to described student growth, one can answer the question: • Did the student make significantly less than a year’s worth of learning. • Did the student make about a year’s worth of learning. • Did the student make significantly more than a year’s worth of learning.

Student Level Insights Advanced Reading Achievement DEMO Reading Scale Score Catch Up Target Growth Proficient Catch Up Target Level Percentiles Very High 81st − 99th High 61st − 80th Part Proficient Typical 40th − 60th Low 20th − 39th Unsatisfactory Very Low 1st − 19th Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Scale Score 476 542 574 Achievement Level Achievement Target Part Proficient Part Proficient Proficient (572) Part Proficient Proficient (599) Achievement Growth Percentile 62 72 Growth Level Growth Target High High Catch Up (70) Catch Up (69) Growth

Student Level Insights Mathematics Advanced Move Up Achievement Target DEMO Mathematics Catch Up Keep Up Target Scale Score Target Growth Proficient Level Percentiles Very High 81st − 99th High 61st − 80th Part Proficient Typical 40th − 60th Low 20th − 39th Unsatisfactory Very Low 1st − 19th Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Scale Score 469 500 470 Achievement Level Achievement Target Proficient Proficient Part Proficient Proficient (523)/Advanced (544) Proficient (519) Achievement Growth Percentile 54 5 Growth Level Growth Target Typical Very Low Keep Up (48)/Move Up (75) Catch Up (70) Growth

Group Level Insights • SGPs were designed to be an individual level metric that can be aggregated to examine average student growth for any relevant subgroup: • Grades within school • Classes within school • Relevant demographic subgroups • Groups receiving targeted intervention (e.g., curricular intervention designed in improve their learning). • Mean/median SGPs below 50

Indiana School Performance ILEARN Growth Group Level Insights& Prior Achievement Reading2024 ILEARN ELA Higher Achievement Higher Achievement School Size Lower Growth Higher Growth 2023 Prior Percent at/above Proficient 50 Students 100 Students 250 Students 500 Students Achievement Lower Growth Higher Growth Summary Statistics Correlation: 0.34 Lower Achievement Lower Achievement Correlation (N ≥ 10): 0.34 Growth 2024 Median Student Growth Percentile

The Bigger Picture • Growth is everything in that it is what we purport to have some control over. • However, achievement is the coin of the realm • Achievement trend data is almost exclusively used as an indicator of educational quality: • Is achievement (e.g., median achievement percentile, percent proficient, …) consistently high. • Is achievement increasing (improvement). • Achievement trends are NOT the right tool for performance management vis-a-vis educational quality.

Outcomes, outcomes, outcomes! • I want to be successful. • I want to be thin. • I want to be admired. We live in a society • I want to be powerful. obsessed with ends • I want to be famous. • I want to have a million followers. • I want to be the best. • I want to be liked. • I want to have it all. • I want to be the fastest. • I want to have the perfect family. • I want to win.

A Focus on Outcomes (at the expense of a focus on process) Process vs. Product Means vs. Ends Journey vs. Destination Development vs. Result Learning vs. Attainment Growth vs. Achievement

Processes, Impacts, and Outcomes Assessment Indicators Proximal-Leading Distal-Lagging Growth/Learning Achievement/Status lead to lead to Processes Impacts Outcomes The diverse set of factors and activities including instructional practices, professional climate, and student experiences, that are implemented or cultivated to support student learning.

Two Axioms 1. Achievement and Growth (i.e., learning) are different but are connected: Learning precedes achievement. Learning is a proximal indicator whereas achievement is distal. 2. Students enter and exit the education system.

Know what you want to accomplish and focus on the process rather than the outcome. Nick Saban

An illustration • Achievement is to water temperature as growth is to the heat supplied. • Status based accountability systems judge the systems based upon “water temperature.” • What the school provides is the heat!

An illustration • These systems will reach a state of thermal equilibrium. • This is similar to schools: If the achievement level of students entering the school and the rates of learning remain constant over time, achievement will reach equilibrium. • This is why examining achievement trend data is potentially misleading.

Education is not the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire. William Butler Yeats

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How Student Growth Percentiles Transform ERB Data into Actionable Insights — ERB, April 4, 2025.

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