Rhode 2014-2015 SGP Analyses NECAP to PARCC Transition

Rhode Island Department of Education · November 23, 2015

Rhode 2014-2015 SGP Analyses NECAP to PARCC Transition — Rhode Island Department of Education, November 23, 2015.
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November 23, 2015

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  1. RHODE 2014-2015 SGP ANALYSES NECAP TO PARCC TRANSITION Damian W Betebenner National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment Providence, RI November 23rd, 2015
  2. TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION • Student growth review • Analyses and diagnostics associated with the 2014-2015.
  3. STUDENT GROWTH IN RHODE ISLAND • Analyses conducted for rst time in 2008 and have been performed annually since. Last performed for Fall 2013 NECAP administration. • Analyses conducted for both Mathematics and Reading. • Student growth percentiles were calculated and used, particularly as part of teacher evaluation work conducted under RttT. • Student growth projections were calculated but not used as part of accountability or reporting.targets for typical and higher growth a year in advance. fi
  4. THE TRANSITION TO PARCC • SGP analyses are norm-referenced and don’t require a vertical scale to be conducted. Depending upon whether results are disseminated, a likely cause of confusion: “How can you calculate growth across two different tests?” • Other PARCC SGP states we’re conducting analyses for: Massachusetts, New Jersey, Colorado • The Center conducted meetings with both SBAC and PARCC consortium members discussing issues related to calculating and using growth during assessment transitions.
  5. THE TRANSITION TO PARCC CORRELATIONS PRIOR YEAR TO CURRENT Grades Grades Grades Grades Grades 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 2010-11 to 0.87 (Math) 0.86 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 0.88 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 2011-2012 0.80 (Read) 0.77 (Read) 0.80 (Read) 0.82 (Read) 0.83 (Read) 2011-12 to 0.87 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 0.88 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 2012-13 0.81 (Read) 0.79 (Read) 0.81 (Read) 0.80 (Read) 0.83 (Read) 2012-13 to 0.87 (Math) 0.88 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 0.88 (Math) 0.87 (Math) 2013-14 0.80 (Read) 0.78 (Read) 0.80 (Read) 0.81 (Read) 0.82 (Read) 2013-14 to 0.81(Math) 0.72 (Math RR) 0.79 (Math) 0.71 (Math RR) 0.84 (Math) 0.76 (Math RR) 0.82 (Math) 0.73 (Math RR) 0.70 (Math) 2014-15 0.79 (Read) 0.77 (Read) 0.76 (Read) 0.74 (Read) 0.76 (Read) RR: Range restricted correlation removing top quartile of 2014-2015 scorers.
  6. Mathematics, Grade 3 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  7. Mathematics, Grade 4 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  8. Mathematics, Grade 5 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  9. Mathematics, Grade 6 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  10. Mathematics, Grade 7 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  11. Mathematics, Grade 8 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  12. Reading, Grade 3 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  13. Reading, Grade 4 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  14. Reading, Grade 5 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  15. Reading, Grade 6 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  16. Reading, Grade 7 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  17. Reading, Grade 8 Equipercentile Linkage 2013_2014 to 2014_2015 2014_2015 Scale Score RI PARCC NECAP 2013_2014 Scale Score
  18. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 4 (N = 9,551) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (12.7%) Proficient (18.9%) Part Proficient (50.4%) Below Proficient (18.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,652) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [824,834) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 60.0 N = 25 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[300,329) 10.13 9.70 11.75 9.05 10.24 9.81 9.70 9.16 10.99 9.48 (9.7%) 100 2nd/[329,336) 8.64 10.41 9.05 10.72 9.78 10.61 10.82 11.03 8.84 10.09 (10.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[336,339) 9.93 10.59 9.77 9.45 10.10 10.26 8.79 8.96 9.45 12.70 (6.4%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[339,344) 10.22 9.54 10.14 9.88 10.14 9.19 10.57 10.14 10.91 9.28 (12.2%) 5th/[344,347) 9.37 10.56 10.79 9.25 9.25 10.44 10.08 10.20 8.78 11.27 (8.8%) 6th/[347,350) 9.70 11.24 8.93 11.05 10.76 9.80 8.93 9.41 9.89 10.28 (10.9%) 7th/[350,354) 8.77 9.42 10.35 9.70 8.68 9.70 11.66 10.82 10.26 10.63 (11.2%) 8th/[354,356) 10.96 9.89 9.22 10.70 10.96 9.89 9.36 9.76 9.76 9.49 (7.8%) 9th/[356,363) 8.57 10.46 9.56 9.47 10.91 9.92 9.56 9.83 10.73 11.00 (11.6%) 10th/[363,380] 9.90 9.90 11.02 9.62 9.52 10.55 9.62 9.99 9.52 10.36 (11.2%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  19. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 5 (N = 9,759) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (11.9%) Proficient (23.6%) Part Proficient (47.5%) Below Proficient (17.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,654) 95.8 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [814,821) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 16.7 12.5 62.5 N = 24 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[400,429) 9.60 9.83 9.38 10.85 10.40 10.06 9.60 9.72 9.38 11.19 (9.1%) 100 2nd/[429,436) 10.30 9.66 10.72 9.34 9.98 8.92 9.98 10.62 10.72 9.77 (9.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[436,441) 9.49 10.79 10.39 9.79 10.19 10.09 10.59 8.19 10.49 9.99 (10.3%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[441,444) 9.21 9.93 9.01 9.83 10.85 9.83 9.21 10.34 9.62 12.18 (10%) 5th/[444,447) 9.95 10.20 10.44 10.20 8.72 9.83 10.93 10.81 10.57 8.35 (8.3%) 6th/[447,450) 8.96 10.10 10.56 9.99 10.45 9.41 10.22 8.38 10.79 11.14 (8.9%) 7th/[450,453) 9.30 9.79 9.30 11.18 9.79 10.39 9.69 11.57 8.61 10.39 (10.4%) 8th/[453,456) 10.02 10.44 10.86 9.29 10.02 9.60 9.81 8.87 11.48 9.60 (9.8%) 9th/[456,463) 9.80 9.72 9.10 10.03 10.11 10.49 10.19 10.34 9.49 10.73 (13.3%) 10th/[463,480] 9.56 9.86 10.56 10.36 10.06 9.46 9.96 9.96 10.16 10.06 (10.3%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  20. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,232) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (8.6%) Proficient (21%) Part Proficient (52.7%) Below Proficient (17.7%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,654) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 26 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [811,817) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8 8.3 12.5 58.3 N = 24 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[500,531) 10.36 10.03 9.59 9.92 9.92 9.92 9.92 10.03 9.59 10.69 (9.8%) 100 2nd/[531,538) 10.78 10.66 9.72 9.83 9.12 10.43 9.36 10.78 9.60 9.72 (9.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[538,542) 8.58 8.69 9.32 9.64 10.38 10.38 10.28 10.06 11.44 11.23 (10.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[542,546) 10.15 10.36 10.46 9.95 10.05 9.13 10.26 9.54 9.33 10.77 (10.6%) 5th/[546,548) 9.15 10.90 7.52 10.40 10.78 10.90 9.40 10.53 10.40 10.03 (8.6%) 6th/[548,551) 9.69 8.81 10.90 10.35 10.24 8.92 10.57 9.80 9.36 11.34 (9.8%) 7th/[551,555) 9.25 10.79 11.51 8.43 9.56 9.97 9.66 9.66 9.56 11.61 (10.5%) 8th/[555,558) 9.93 9.93 9.82 10.35 9.82 10.56 10.14 9.71 11.09 8.66 (10.3%) 9th/[558,562) 9.84 9.58 9.71 9.06 8.53 9.19 11.15 11.15 9.45 12.34 (8.3%) 10th/[562,580] 9.03 10.90 9.88 9.97 11.24 9.54 9.20 10.05 9.88 10.31 (12.7%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  21. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,137) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (10%) Proficient (21.2%) Part Proficient (51.8%) Below Proficient (16.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 92.6 3.7 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 54 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [825,833) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 27.3 18.2 50.0 N = 22 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[600,629) 11.38 8.86 9.52 9.63 9.30 9.63 10.50 10.07 10.50 10.61 (10%) 100 2nd/[629,637) 9.43 10.70 10.70 10.45 10.32 8.41 9.81 9.94 10.06 10.19 (8.6%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[637,641) 8.91 10.22 10.35 9.44 9.31 11.14 9.04 9.96 9.04 12.58 (8.4%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[641,645) 9.59 9.69 10.73 9.88 10.07 8.64 10.16 9.88 10.64 10.73 (11.5%) 5th/[645,648) 10.15 8.87 9.33 10.39 10.15 9.80 10.62 10.74 10.27 9.68 (9.4%) 6th/[648,652) 9.24 9.76 9.45 9.24 9.87 8.93 9.76 10.59 10.80 12.36 (10.5%) 7th/[652,655) 9.71 10.86 9.71 10.02 10.44 11.27 8.87 9.71 10.13 9.29 (10.5%) 8th/[655,660) 9.30 9.86 9.41 9.86 9.19 11.07 10.41 9.41 10.41 11.07 (9.9%) 9th/[660,666) 9.95 10.25 11.04 9.95 10.55 9.25 8.46 9.95 9.15 11.44 (11%) 10th/[666,680] 9.83 9.08 8.87 10.26 9.51 10.47 10.47 10.04 10.58 10.90 (10.2%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  22. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 8 (N = 9,029) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (10.7%) Proficient (20.6%) Part Proficient (49.1%) Below Proficient (19.6%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 81.1 14.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 90 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [830,836) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 13.0 17.4 26.1 39.1 N = 23 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[700,728) 10.64 9.19 8.46 11.85 9.43 10.16 10.40 9.43 11.00 9.43 (9.2%) 100 2nd/[728,734) 8.54 9.80 9.55 9.30 11.06 9.92 9.55 11.18 10.55 10.55 (8.8%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[734,739) 10.55 9.83 10.79 8.51 9.83 9.83 10.67 8.87 10.43 10.67 (9.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[739,744) 10.80 10.10 10.02 9.23 8.97 9.76 9.84 10.45 9.84 10.98 (12.7%) 5th/[744,747) 8.43 8.73 9.19 12.50 10.54 10.69 10.24 9.94 10.39 9.34 (7.4%) 6th/[747,751) 9.50 9.78 10.35 9.60 10.07 9.22 10.07 9.69 10.35 11.38 (11.8%) 7th/[751,754) 10.04 10.04 10.04 8.85 9.51 10.04 9.91 10.30 9.78 11.49 (8.4%) 8th/[754,760) 9.19 9.84 9.84 9.56 9.47 10.96 10.49 9.47 11.51 9.66 (11.9%) 9th/[760,767) 9.99 8.63 9.88 10.56 10.44 9.99 11.12 9.53 8.63 11.24 (9.8%) 10th/[767,780] 9.27 9.88 9.88 8.86 10.08 10.39 10.49 10.79 9.78 10.59 (10.9%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  23. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Reading SGP, Grade 9 (N = 7,515) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Reading) Distinction (7.6%) Proficient (27.7%) Part Proficient (47.5%) Below Proficient (17.2%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 98.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 50 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [821,827) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 10.3 24.1 13.8 44.8 N = 29 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[800,831) 11.53 10.66 9.34 8.03 9.64 10.95 9.20 10.80 9.49 10.36 (9.1%) 100 2nd/[831,838) 10.18 10.57 9.66 11.36 9.92 8.88 9.66 9.14 10.57 10.05 (10.2%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[838,842) 8.54 8.69 10.21 9.91 10.37 10.21 10.37 10.06 9.76 11.89 (8.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[842,847) 9.49 10.36 9.86 9.36 10.74 9.24 9.24 10.11 10.61 10.99 (10.7%) 5th/[847,850) 8.55 10.09 9.40 10.94 8.38 10.43 9.74 12.65 10.60 9.23 (7.8%) 6th/[850,854) 9.43 10.48 10.48 9.43 10.06 9.85 9.22 9.96 9.64 11.43 (12.7%) 7th/[854,858) 11.20 9.08 8.77 10.44 8.77 9.38 11.50 8.93 9.68 12.25 (8.8%) 8th/[858,861) 8.78 10.03 10.82 9.56 10.82 10.03 9.87 10.03 9.72 10.34 (8.5%) 9th/[861,869) 9.75 10.27 9.03 9.96 10.06 9.96 9.75 9.86 10.57 10.78 (13%) 10th/[869,880] 10.06 9.69 10.82 9.81 9.31 9.56 10.57 10.31 9.81 10.06 (10.6%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  24. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Mathematics SGP, Grade 4 (N = 9,614) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Distinction (21.1%) Proficient (17.4%) Part Proficient (40%) Below Proficient (21.5%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,658) 95.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 23 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [807,816) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 3.8 11.5 19.2 57.7 N = 26 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[300,325) 10.19 9.85 10.19 9.06 10.31 8.95 10.08 10.42 10.31 10.65 (9.2%) 100 2nd/[325,331) 9.28 10.12 10.00 11.45 8.43 11.57 9.40 10.00 10.72 9.04 (8.6%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[331,335) 8.36 9.92 10.63 9.68 12.54 8.24 11.83 8.96 8.36 11.47 (8.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[335,339) 10.75 10.49 9.70 10.14 8.92 12.15 8.39 9.18 10.31 9.97 (11.9%) 5th/[339,343) 9.58 10.63 9.11 9.77 9.96 8.82 9.58 11.95 10.25 10.34 (11%) 6th/[343,345) 6.63 9.81 8.75 12.73 11.01 8.49 12.20 9.02 9.55 11.80 (7.8%) 7th/[345,349) 10.51 9.43 11.14 8.72 9.70 10.15 10.78 9.25 10.51 9.79 (11.6%) 8th/[349,352) 11.36 11.74 8.74 9.24 8.99 12.36 9.36 9.61 8.24 10.36 (8.3%) 9th/[352,356) 9.59 9.88 9.88 10.57 10.76 9.20 9.78 10.57 10.27 9.49 (10.6%) 10th/[356,380] 9.10 9.27 10.37 10.37 9.52 10.20 10.12 9.61 9.95 11.48 (12.2%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  25. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Mathematics SGP, Grade 5 (N = 9,845) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Distinction (18.5%) Proficient (20.8%) Part Proficient (41.8%) Below Proficient (18.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,655) 89.7 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 29 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [806,812) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1 23.1 53.8 N = 26 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[400,425) 9.87 10.17 10.28 9.04 9.76 10.07 9.46 10.59 9.97 10.79 (9.9%) 100 2nd/[425,432) 9.39 9.15 9.86 11.97 10.09 9.86 9.39 8.69 9.86 11.74 (8.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[432,437) 9.35 10.13 9.84 10.13 10.80 9.35 9.74 11.09 9.84 9.74 (10.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[437,442) 9.01 10.06 10.44 9.20 9.20 10.63 11.10 9.30 9.96 11.10 (10.7%) 5th/[442,445) 10.53 9.45 9.45 10.53 9.45 9.77 8.27 10.85 11.71 9.99 (9.5%) 6th/[445,448) 10.57 9.79 10.57 9.92 8.51 10.18 10.82 9.54 10.31 9.79 (7.9%) 7th/[448,451) 8.57 10.73 9.98 9.32 10.83 9.79 9.70 9.60 9.60 11.86 (10.8%) 8th/[451,455) 8.28 9.00 10.26 9.63 10.89 9.81 10.71 11.07 10.08 10.26 (11.3%) 9th/[455,460) 9.98 11.49 10.28 10.99 9.17 9.68 9.88 8.97 9.78 9.78 (10.1%) 10th/[460,480] 10.12 9.37 9.46 9.65 9.84 10.60 9.74 10.50 10.03 10.69 (10.7%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  26. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Mathematics SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,306) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Distinction (21.2%) Proficient (15.7%) Part Proficient (45.8%) Below Proficient (17.3%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 94.1 2.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 34 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [799,804) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 20.0 12.0 16.0 44.0 N = 25 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[500,526) 8.89 9.44 9.44 9.56 9.44 10.22 10.33 10.44 10.67 11.56 (9.7%) 100 2nd/[526,532) 9.76 9.23 10.03 10.69 10.16 11.35 8.97 9.10 9.63 11.08 (8.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[532,537) 10.25 9.96 10.34 10.15 9.77 8.33 9.58 10.54 9.87 11.21 (11.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[537,540) 9.62 10.29 10.07 9.62 10.41 10.18 9.39 9.39 10.86 10.18 (9.5%) 5th/[540,543) 8.27 9.51 10.42 10.76 8.38 10.65 10.19 10.42 10.42 10.99 (9.5%) 6th/[543,547) 10.39 11.78 8.91 9.55 10.30 9.74 10.02 9.55 9.37 10.39 (11.6%) 7th/[547,550) 8.29 8.64 9.58 10.28 11.45 9.81 9.93 10.16 9.93 11.92 (9.2%) 8th/[550,553) 10.64 8.92 12.01 9.61 10.30 9.04 9.27 9.04 10.18 10.98 (9.4%) 9th/[553,558) 8.71 10.80 9.00 10.23 8.81 10.80 10.13 11.55 9.85 10.13 (11.3%) 10th/[558,580] 9.56 9.76 9.76 9.35 10.48 10.17 10.07 10.07 10.28 10.48 (10.5%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  27. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Mathematics SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,199) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Distinction (23%) Proficient (19.3%) Part Proficient (40.1%) Below Proficient (17.7%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 35 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [796,800) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 13.0 17.4 30.4 34.8 N = 23 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[600,624) 9.57 9.45 9.92 9.33 10.15 9.45 10.15 10.27 10.97 10.74 (9.3%) 100 2nd/[624,631) 10.33 10.21 9.54 10.44 9.09 9.88 8.87 9.88 11.00 10.77 (9.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[631,636) 9.91 9.18 9.49 9.28 9.49 9.28 10.11 10.43 11.37 11.47 (10.4%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[636,639) 9.47 12.22 10.67 8.61 12.91 8.09 8.43 10.15 9.29 10.15 (6.3%) 5th/[639,643) 9.32 9.24 8.23 10.79 8.77 11.80 9.94 9.63 10.40 11.88 (14%) 6th/[643,646) 10.89 8.51 10.76 10.01 10.51 8.89 10.64 10.51 9.89 9.39 (8.7%) 7th/[646,649) 8.89 10.95 9.02 9.92 10.82 8.89 9.28 10.18 10.70 11.34 (8.4%) 8th/[649,652) 9.01 10.52 11.59 9.23 8.26 10.84 10.73 9.98 9.98 9.87 (10.1%) 9th/[652,658) 9.86 9.77 8.53 11.19 9.95 9.86 10.30 9.33 9.77 11.46 (12.2%) 10th/[658,680] 9.70 9.70 9.80 9.09 9.90 9.70 10.51 10.40 9.90 11.31 (10.8%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  28. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2014−2015 Mathematics SGP, Grade 8 (N = 6,629) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Distinction (27.1%) Proficient (5.3%) Part Proficient (43.1%) Below Proficient (24.5%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 80.3 18.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 132 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [783,790) 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 14.3 21.4 50.0 N = 28 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[700,724) 10.02 9.84 9.29 10.56 9.65 11.66 8.93 10.56 10.20 9.29 (8.3%) 100 2nd/[724,730) 9.85 9.70 10.13 10.41 8.86 9.00 10.13 8.58 11.11 12.24 (10.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[730,734) 10.29 9.60 8.92 10.29 10.29 9.19 12.07 10.29 8.78 10.29 (11%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[734,737) 9.23 11.72 11.97 10.47 8.23 8.73 8.48 10.72 9.23 11.22 (6%) 5th/[737,739) 10.09 9.57 8.89 10.09 10.60 10.26 8.72 10.60 10.77 10.43 (8.8%) 6th/[739,742) 10.48 9.54 9.89 9.07 10.72 10.25 10.95 8.72 10.72 9.66 (12.8%) 7th/[742,745) 9.09 11.69 10.52 11.30 7.79 8.83 9.22 10.65 10.00 10.91 (11.6%) 8th/[745,747) 10.49 7.87 10.30 11.42 10.86 8.99 10.11 9.93 9.93 10.11 (8.1%) 9th/[747,750) 11.10 10.48 9.86 8.75 9.74 10.11 9.74 9.86 9.74 10.60 (12.2%) 10th/[750,774] 8.84 10.87 9.71 10.14 9.57 10.14 10.14 9.71 10.58 10.29 (10.4%)
  29. Daniel Belzer Sample School Level 5 How to interpret this student growth & achievement report Distinction High Level 4 RI PARCC High Typical Scale Score Typical Low Typical Proficient Level 3 RI PARCC Low Achievement Levels Part Proficient Level 2 Below Proficient NECAP RI PARCC RI PARCC Level 1 Student Growth Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Percentile Scale Score 355 764 Achievement Level Distinction Level 4 Achievement Growth Percentile 58 Growth Level High Typical Growth Suggested Uses ● Review past growth to assess Level 5 student academic progress toward RI PARCC achievement goals. Distinction High ● Develop remediation or enrich− ● High Typical ment plans based on rate of Typical Level 4 growth needed to reach higher Low Typical RI PARCC achievement levels. ● Identify the rate of progress Proficient ● Low needed in order to reach or Level 3 maintain proficient status on the RI PARCC next year. Level 2 Part Proficient Below Proficient NECAP RI PARCC RI PARCC Level 1 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Scale Score 361 781 Achievement Level Distinction Level 4 Achievement Growth Percentile 70 Growth Level High Typical Growth For more information please visit the Rhode Island Department of Education (RIDE) at www.ride.ri.gov/ or contact 401−222−4600 Cooperatively developed by the RIDE & the Center for Assessment, Inc. Distributed by the RIDE.
  30. Mathematics School Median SGP 2012⌧2013 to 2013⌧2014 Median SGP 2013−2014 Growth Growth Median SGP 2012−2013
  31. Mathematics School Median SGP 2013⌧2014 to 2014⌧2015 Median SGP 2014−2015 Growth Growth Median SGP 2013−2014
  32. Reading School Median SGP 2012⌧2013 to 2013⌧2014 Median SGP 2013−2014 Growth Growth Median SGP 2012−2013
  33. Reading School Median SGP 2013⌧2014 to 2014⌧2015 Median SGP 2014−2015 Growth Growth Median SGP 2013−2014
  34. CONCLUSIONS • Correlations between prior and current were close to what has been observed historically and suf cient for valid growth analyses. • Despite fears, there do not appear to be signi cant oor or ceilings impacting growth analyses. fl fi fi