COVID-19 Impact & Recovery

Idaho Technical Advisory Committee · November 1, 2022

COVID-19 Impact & Recovery — Idaho Technical Advisory Committee, November 1, 2022.
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November 1, 2022

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Technical advisory committee
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  1. COVID-19 Impact & Recovery October 2022 Update Damian Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden — Center for Assessment Hawaii DOE November 30th, 2022
  2. Background Introductory Concepts and Terminology
  3. COVID-19 Pandemic • The COVID-19 Pandemic led to, arguably, the largest educational disruption in the history of the United States. • Two-and-a-half years into the pandemic and the impacts of the pandemic are still being felt. • The pandemic impacted students academically, emotionally, physically, and financially. • In this overview, we focus address three things: • Academic Impact: What is it and what was happened to students in Hawaii? • Academic Recovery: What is it and what is happening to students in Hawaii currently? • Now What?: How can impact and recovery data be leveraged to help students going forward? Evidence-based investigations of what is working.
  4. What is Academic Impact? • The pandemic and all the ensuing disruptions functioned/ functions as an “academic headwind”, impeding (in general) the academic progress of students. • Headwinds impede progress in two ways: ▪ They slow one’s rate of progress (speedometer) ▪ And by slowing one’s rate of progress, less distance is traveled (odometer). • In education, these two impediments manifest as: ▪ Decrease in student growth (i.e., decrease in velocity = deceleration). ▪ Decrease in student attainment.
  5. Learning acceleration/deceleration • Summarization of assessment data (either for diagnostic or accountability purposes) emphasizes two types of data results: Status (i.e., student attainment) and Growth (i.e., student academic progress) • With the pandemic, the emphasis has changed to look at the academic impact • Impact is synonymous with declaration • Recovery is synonymous with acceleration ▪ Deceleration, by definition, is the change in velocity (i.e., a decrease in growth) ▪ Acceleration, by definition, is the change in velocity (i.e., increase in growth ▪ To understand whether and the extent to which recovery is occurring, one must understand the magnitude of impact.
  6. Assessment Data • We investigated the impacts of the pandemic across two time frames: • Impact: Spring 2020 through Summer 2021 • Recovery: Fall 2021 through Summer 2022 • To investigate the impact, we utilized two primary sources of data • State summative assessment data (Smarter Balanced) • Impact: SBA Spring 2019 to Spring 2021 (Smarter Balanced testing canceled in 2020) • Recovery: Smarter Balanced Spring 2021 to Spring 2022 • State English Language Proficiency Data (ACCESS) • Impact: ACCESS Winter 2020 to Winter 2021 • Recovery: ACCESS Winter 2021 to Winter 2022
  7. Assessment Data • We investigated academic impact by using two complementary analyses: • Change in attainment (odometer): Equi-percentile scale score change (all grades) • Change in growth (speedometer): Baseline referenced student growth percentile change (grades for which growth is calculated)
  8. Impact From Spring 2020 to Summer 2021 Smarter Balanced: Spring 2019 and Spring 2021 Assessments ACCESS: Winter 2020 and Winter 2021 Assessments
  10. Status Impact Black Line: 2019 (pre-covid) scaled-score distribution. Red line: 2021 scaled-score distribution. The impact of the pandemic on student achievement (decrease) is illustrated as the area between the black line (top) and the red line (bottom) X-axis: Grade 7 percentile rank The horizontal distance between the curves at the proficiency cut level (horizontal dashed blue line) illustrates the decrease in the percent proficient. A dotted red line indicates the distribution of scores, including missing students derived through multiple imputations.
  11. Status Impact Red line: 2021-2019 scaled-score distribution difference. The impact of the pandemic (difference in the distributions) on student achievement (decrease) is indicated by the red line. X-axis: Grade 7 percentile rank Average impact z = -0.18 standard units. A dotted red line indicates the distribution of scores, including missing students derived through multiple imputations. Larger impact for high-achieving students than lower-achieving students.
  12. Growth Impact Black Line: (pre-covid) conditional scaled-score distribution — Grade 7/2019 conditioned on Grade Red line: conditional scaled-score distribution — Grade 7/2021 conditioned on Grade 5/2019 The impact of the pandemic on student achievement (decrease) is illustrated as the area between the black line (top) and red line (bottom) X-axis: Grade 5 Scaled Score Fixing a level on the x-axis, the vertical distance between the curves is the average decrease in scale score associated with the pandemic for a student at that 5th grade level A dotted red line indicates the distribution of scores including missing students derived through multiple imputation.
  13. Growth Impact Red line: SGP Difference Grade 7/2021 - Grade 5/2019 conditional scaled score distribution X-axis: Grade 5 Scaled Score Median SGP 2019 Grade 7: 50 Median SGP 2021 Grade 7: 30 Top quintile students median SGP dropped from 50 to 19, whereas bottom quintile students dropped from 51 to 46.
  14. Summary We summarize the academic impact both overall and by achievement quintile For Grade 7 mathematics, the overall academic impact for students was large (z decrease = -0.18 and median SGP decrease Academic impact was not uniform across students. For this grade/content area, higher-achieving students were more severely impacted than lower-achieving students.
  15. Overall Impact • ELA • Decreases in the percent proficient ranged from upper single digits in lower grades to lower single digits in higher grades. • Median (baseline) SGPs ranged from mid-30s (lower grades) to lower 40s (higher grades) • Impacts were categorized as moderate to large • Mathematics • Decreases in percent proficient were in the lower teens • Median (baseline) SGPs ranged from the mid-teens to the upper 20s. • Impacts were categorized as large to severe • Moderate, large, and severe impacts likely require multiple years of above-average (pre- pandemic) growth to recover to where students would have been had the pandemic not occurred.
  21. Recovery From Fall 2021 to Summer 2022 Smarter Balanced: Spring 2021 and Spring 2022 Assessments ACCESS: Winter 2021 and Winter 2022 Assessments
  22. Recovery Phase • During the 2021-2022 academic year, schooling returned to normal for most students. • The hope was that a return to normal would lead to recovery of the academic losses incurred by students. • Because learning slowed during the initial phase of the pandemic, to make up for those losses, learning must accelerate to rates above normal in order to catch up for those losses. • Data from two sources was utilized to examine whether recovery is occurring: • Smarter Balanced data from 2021 and 2022 • WIDA-ACCESS data from 2021 and 2022
  23. Four Academic Recovery Scenarios with SBA: V-, U-, L-, and No-recovery
  24. Baseline SGP: What is Recovery? • Given the negative pandemic impacts, any recovery implies learning acceleration. • However, not all acceleration can be considered recovery • Acceleration versus 2021 versus acceleration versus 2019 V-Shaped Recovery (> 60) 60 U-Shaped Recovery (50 to 60) Median 2021 Baseline SGP 50 Median 2022 Baseline SGP L-Shaped “Recovery” (40 to 50) Note: Any median SGP above 30 Downward Spiral (< 40) in 2022 would be considered 20 acceleration. But only values above 50 would be sufficient to begin catching students up to where they would have been absent the pandemic.
  25. Status Recovery Black Line: 2021 (covid) scaled-score distribution. Red line: 2022 scaled-score distribution. The recovery from the pandemic on student achievement (increase) is illustrated as the area between the black line (bottom) and the red line (top) X-axis: Grade 5 percentile rank The horizontal distance between the curves at the proficiency cut level (horizontal dashed blue line) illustrates the increase in percent proficient.
  26. Status Recovery Red line: 2022 - 2021 scaled-score distribution difference. The recovery from the pandemic (difference in the distributions) on student achievement (increase) is indicated by the red line. X-axis: Grade 5 percentile rank Average impact z = +0.23 standard units. Larger recovery for high achieving students than lower achieving students.
  27. Growth Recovery Black Line: (pre-covid) conditional scaled-score distribution — Grade 5/2019 conditioned on Grade 4/2018 Red line: conditional scaled-score distribution — Grade 5/2022 conditioned on Grade 4/2021 The recovery from the pandemic on student achievement (increase) is illustrated as the area between the black line (bottom) and the red line (top) X-axis: Grade 4 Scaled Score Fixing a level on the x-axis, the vertical distance between the curves is the average increase in scale score associated with the recovery for a student at that 5th-grade level.
  28. Growth Recovery Red line: SGP Difference Grade 5/2022 - Grade 4/2021 conditional scaled score distribution X-axis: Grade 4 Scaled Score Median SGP 2019 Grade 5: 50 Median SGP 2022 Grade 5: 65 The largest acceleration in growth was seen for quintiles 1 to 4, with median SGPs ranging from 65 to 69.
  29. Summary We summarize the academic impact both overall and by achievement quintile For Grade 7 mathematics, the overall academic impact for students was large (z decrease = -0.18 and median SGP decrease = Academic impact was not uniform across students. For this grade/content area, higher-achieving students were more severely impacted than lower-achieving students.
  33. Overall Recovery • Analysis of 2022 Smarter Balanced and ACCESS data indicates many trends in Hawaii to be happy about. • In both ELA and mathematics, learning acceleration was at least at the level of stabilization and, in many cases, could be considered genuine recovery. • Compared to a dozen other states where the Center conducted these analyses, Hawaii comes out as the best in terms of pandemic recovery. • Results from the 2023 data will be critical to assess whether these exemplary rates of learning (beyond what the state experience pre- COVID) are being maintained.
  34. Academic Impact/Recovery Across 6 States Impact & Recovery Mathematics HI4 ELA 15 HI6 HI5 Hawaii showed large impacts 10 HI8 HI7 Recovery HI4 and large recovery 5 HI3 HI5 HI6 HI8 HI7 Hawaii’s academic recovery 0 HI3 Academic Recovery results are the best I have seen −5 nationally −10 A critical “test” of this recovery −20 will be the 2023 results. If rates −25 Deterioration of learning in 2023 extend those −30 of 2022, then Hawaii will have −35 come out of the pandemic −40 better than before it started Large Impact Academic Impact Improvement
  37. Now What Leveraging Assessment Data to Help Students Overcome COVID-19 Academic Impacts
  38. Exemplar Schools: Impact & Recovery • Original discussions about examining ROI were redirected to examine Return on Activities: • Identify outlier schools in terms of impact/recovery. • Investigate whether activities (or lack thereof) could potentially be responsible for the school’s outlier status. • For schools with plausible activities leading to exemplary recovery, investigate links to relevant investment/funding. • Step 1 is to find these outlier schools. • We investigated schools along two dimensions: • Academic Impact (2019 to 2021 decrease in student learning) • Academic Recovery (2021 to 2022 increase in student learning relative to pre- pandemic 2018-2019 learning)
  40. Exemplar Schools: Impact & Recovery • As can be seen, Hawaii and its schools experienced a largely positive 2021-2022 • We’ve created Excel spreadsheets with the identified schools to help to sort through the many potential criteria to use to select exemplar schools • As we discussed in Portsmouth, there was some concern that of low motivation leading to poor results. To examine we filtered on students with very low to very high and very high to very low growth. • Filtering out these students led to non-appreciable changes to the impact- recovery examinations of schools.
  41. Questions