ERB Growth Model Development

ERB · January 9, 2023

ERB Growth Model Development — ERB, January 9, 2023.
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January 9, 2023

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  1. ERB Growth Model Development Analyses and Results Damian Betebenner — Center for Assessment January 9th, 2023
  2. Data preparation • Current data being utilized for growth model proof of concept includes both CTP and Milestones: Reading Comprehension CTP Fall 49,549 73,204 0 Reading Comprehension CTP Spring 0 118,075 145,927 Reading Comprehension MS Fall 11,380 17,902 0 Reading Comprehension MS Winter 12,786 20,914 0 Reading Comprehension MS Spring 0 6,523 12,371
  3. Data preparation • LONG formatted data was produced as the first step in SGP analyses. • LEVEL was used as the indicator of GRADE • The R script utilized or data preparation is available here:
  4. SGP Analyses • With data prepared, the next step is to run SGP analyses using this data. • Three sets of analyses were conducted based upon discussions of student test taking: • CTP to CTP: Fall to Fall and Spring to Spring • MS to MS: Fall to Winter, Fall to Spring, Winter to Spring • MS to CTP: Fall to Spring • Specifying these analyses is done through configurations available here.
  5. SGP Analyses • As a first step we calculate SGPs for students based upon the configurations specified. • The SGP model utilized for ERB Reading Comprehension data takes account of: • The student’s prior score • The date in which the student took their test in the current window • The time span between when they took their current test and when they took their prior test • The R script utilized to run the SGP analyses is available here.
  6. SGP Analyses • Analyses ran with no errors and SGPs were produced for all cohorts. • Once LEVEL was used instead of GRADE, everything lined up and worked • A selection of Goodness of fit results are presented on the following slides • Based upon cutscores provided by Adrienne, I updated the ERB meta-data in the SGP package. Those outscores and other meta- data can be found here.
  7. SGP Results • Analyses ran with no errors and SGPs were produced for all cohorts. • Goodness of fit would benefit from larger sample sizes • Goodness of fit plots indicates some minor issues with ceilings on the exam (a few students repeatedly scoring perfectly on the exam). • Growth and achievement plots suggest an “unevenness” of the achievement level outscores
  8. ERB: 2022 Reading (Spring) ERB: 2022 Reading (Spring) Norm & Criterion Referenced Growth & Achievement Norm & Criterion Referenced Growth & Achievement Percentile Growth Trajectory Percentile Growth Trajectory Scale Score Scale Score 2022 Achievement Percentile 2022 Achievement Percentile 200 SGP trajectories SGP trajectories for for aa 1st 1st grade grade student student starting starting from from the the Level Level 1/Level 1/Level 22 cut. cut. 200 SGP trajectories SGP for aa 1st trajectories for 1st grade grade student student starting starting from from the the Level Level 2/Level 2/Level 33 cut. cut. Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10
  9. Jonah Mitchell Sample School How to interpret this student growth & achievement report Reading Scale Score Exceeds Expectations (Spring) Achievement Achievement Reading Levels (Spring) Scale Score Above Year's Growth Student Growth Growth Percentile Year's Growth Level Percentiles Meets Expectations Suggested Uses Below Year's Growth > Year's Growth 77th − 99th Review past growth to assess A Year's Growth 23rd − 76th student academic progress toward achievement goals. Develop remediation or enrich− ment plans based on rate of < Year's Growth 1st − 22nd growth needed to reach higher Does Not Meet achievement levels. Identify the rate of progress needed in order to reach or −− Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 maintain proficient status on the next year. 2020 2021 2022 2023 Scale Score −− 312 400 Achievement Level −− Does Not Meet Does Not Meet Achievement Growth Percentile −− 39 Growth Level −− At or Near Year's Growth Growth For more information please visit the () at or contact Cooperatively developed by & the Center for Assessment, Inc. Distributed by .
  10. Fall 2020 CTP to Fall 2021 CTP Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 2 (N = 1,804) 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 3 (N = 4,105) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) Exceeds Expectations (3.6%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Exceeds Expectations (39.2%) Meets Expectations (76.2%) Meets Expectations (44.3%) Does Not Meet (20.2%) Does Not Meet (16.5%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [260,314) 52.0 20.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Lowest OSS: [310,354) 81.8 13.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 701 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 22.9 48.6 N = 35 (701,710] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 84.4 N = 32 Highest OSS: [ 750 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 40.4 23.8 29.1 N = 265 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[126,287) 9.71 9.14 10.86 8.00 12.00 11.43 9.71 11.43 8.57 9.14 (9.7%) 100 1st/[260,406) 9.83 10.32 9.58 10.81 9.58 10.07 9.34 9.58 10.57 10.32 (9.9%) 100 2nd/[287,333) 7.33 12.00 11.33 10.67 7.33 6.00 10.67 11.33 10.00 13.33 (8.3%) 2nd/[406,437) 8.21 9.68 9.97 12.90 12.32 8.21 10.85 9.38 9.97 8.50 (8.3%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[333,367) 11.24 11.24 9.55 10.67 12.36 11.80 8.99 9.55 9.55 5.06 (9.9%) 3rd/[437,461) 12.66 9.50 9.76 10.29 6.07 8.97 6.86 11.61 11.08 13.19 (9.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[367,385) 10.24 7.83 12.65 10.24 11.45 5.42 10.84 7.83 10.24 13.25 (9.2%) 4th/[461,489) 8.45 12.26 8.72 9.54 10.35 12.81 11.44 8.45 8.72 9.26 (8.9%) 5th/[385,419) 10.75 9.68 6.99 9.14 6.45 15.05 8.06 13.44 9.14 11.29 (10.3%) 5th/[489,512) 9.09 8.91 10.95 10.58 10.95 7.98 11.87 12.99 8.91 7.79 (13.1%) 6th/[419,445) 8.76 13.36 12.90 9.68 11.98 13.36 4.61 6.91 11.52 6.91 (12%) 6th/[512,525) 7.69 10.41 15.84 11.31 8.14 9.95 10.86 0.45 14.48 10.86 (5.4%) 7th/[445,477) 11.63 9.88 10.47 13.95 4.65 9.88 12.21 6.40 8.72 12.21 (9.5%) 7th/[525,550) 10.91 11.31 10.51 3.03 16.16 6.26 10.30 13.13 7.07 11.31 (12.1%) 8th/[477,519) 11.31 11.31 7.14 10.71 4.76 13.10 4.17 19.64 5.36 12.50 (9.3%) 8th/[550,586) 10.18 8.55 10.39 13.03 6.11 11.20 9.98 11.81 8.55 10.18 (12%) 9th/[519,589) 7.91 8.47 10.17 12.99 17.51 3.39 18.64 0.00 12.99 7.91 (9.8%) 9th/[586,632) 9.35 9.83 12.23 6.47 16.07 9.59 6.24 8.63 14.15 7.43 (10.2%) 10th/[589,650] 11.16 9.77 12.09 9.77 10.70 7.91 11.16 9.77 11.63 6.05 (11.9%) 10th/[632,710] 10.27 13.62 6.47 12.05 8.04 12.95 8.26 11.83 16.52 0.00 (10.9%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  11. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 4 (N = 5,152) 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 5 (N = 4,859) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Exceeds Expectations (50.4%) Exceeds Expectations (57%) Meets Expectations (36.4%) Meets Expectations (36.6%) Does Not Meet (13.3%) Does Not Meet (6.3%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [350,397) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 20 Lowest OSS: [380,455) 94.3 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 35 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 790 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.2 0.0 26.1 36.7 N = 226 Highest OSS: [ 860 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.8 9.9 59.3 N = 91 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[310,445) 10.56 9.76 9.76 9.56 9.96 9.36 10.36 9.36 11.16 10.16 (9.7%) 100 1st/[350,497) 9.47 9.47 9.67 9.67 11.11 9.47 11.52 9.47 9.26 10.91 (10%) 100 2nd/[445,484) 9.18 10.35 10.16 11.33 8.20 9.96 11.91 9.18 9.96 9.77 (9.9%) 2nd/[497,521) 8.40 11.70 10.43 10.43 6.36 11.45 9.92 10.43 11.20 9.67 (8.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[484,513) 8.28 11.19 11.86 9.40 13.20 9.17 7.16 12.30 7.83 9.62 (8.7%) 3rd/[521,541) 10.86 8.77 14.61 7.31 11.69 10.44 7.10 9.81 9.81 9.60 (9.9%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[513,543) 10.79 9.35 7.01 7.55 11.51 10.61 11.87 8.09 10.79 12.41 (10.8%) 4th/[541,564) 10.47 10.08 6.98 12.02 8.53 11.82 10.47 8.14 10.08 11.43 (10.6%) 5th/[543,567) 7.96 11.30 11.48 12.41 8.15 9.81 7.96 10.56 12.41 7.96 (10.5%) 5th/[564,577) 9.01 9.63 13.98 9.63 6.83 9.32 9.32 15.22 8.70 8.39 (6.6%) 6th/[567,594) 11.72 11.13 9.77 12.11 10.35 10.16 10.16 8.40 6.84 9.38 (9.9%) 6th/[577,606) 10.92 10.19 7.86 12.08 12.66 9.02 8.59 7.57 9.46 11.64 (14.1%) 7th/[594,622) 6.80 9.48 9.48 7.22 9.69 9.07 11.55 12.37 12.78 11.55 (9.4%) 7th/[606,623) 9.01 7.51 13.81 8.71 9.31 9.31 11.41 14.11 7.81 9.01 (6.9%) 8th/[622,663) 13.36 10.12 10.93 8.50 11.54 11.54 8.70 10.32 6.28 8.70 (9.6%) 8th/[623,667) 9.23 10.74 10.59 8.02 13.01 8.77 9.83 11.65 8.62 9.53 (13.6%) 9th/[663,731) 7.35 9.28 13.54 10.44 8.51 7.16 16.83 9.67 6.96 10.25 (10%) 9th/[667,720) 10.09 9.87 7.17 14.80 7.62 11.43 10.99 7.85 10.54 9.64 (9.2%) 10th/[731,750] 10.56 11.24 8.52 11.07 9.03 14.65 9.20 18.91 1.87 4.94 (11.4%) 10th/[720,790] 11.38 11.57 9.51 10.63 9.14 7.84 10.45 10.82 12.13 6.53 (11%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  12. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 6 (N = 5,404) 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 7 (N = 4,536) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) Exceeds Expectations (14.7%) Exceeds Expectations (16.6%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Meets Expectations (34.2%) Meets Expectations (34.6%) Does Not Meet (51.1%) Does Not Meet (48.8%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [407,462) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Lowest OSS: [400,505) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 23 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 900 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 9.8 26.0 47.4 N = 173 Highest OSS: [ 950 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 32.2 0.0 37.9 N = 87 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[380,514) 10.47 9.53 10.47 9.53 10.65 9.91 9.91 9.91 8.79 10.84 (9.9%) 100 1st/[400,552) 8.55 10.39 9.24 10.39 9.93 9.93 11.09 10.85 9.70 9.93 (9.5%) 100 2nd/[514,549) 8.01 12.12 8.01 12.34 11.69 9.09 8.87 9.74 11.90 8.23 (8.5%) 2nd/[552,584) 12.62 8.81 11.43 9.05 9.05 11.19 7.38 11.43 8.33 10.71 (9.3%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[549,574) 10.37 8.44 12.13 7.56 9.14 11.95 10.90 8.44 9.31 11.78 (10.5%) 3rd/[584,607) 8.41 11.36 8.41 11.59 10.68 9.55 13.41 6.59 9.55 10.45 (9.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[574,601) 10.25 11.15 10.43 10.79 8.45 7.73 9.17 13.85 7.73 10.43 (10.3%) 4th/[607,631) 8.81 7.99 12.50 9.63 9.02 9.22 10.86 11.07 9.63 11.27 (10.8%) 5th/[601,623) 9.04 9.58 6.87 9.40 15.73 8.68 8.86 7.96 15.19 8.68 (10.2%) 5th/[631,651) 10.39 11.32 8.31 13.63 7.85 9.24 7.62 11.09 10.85 9.70 (9.5%) 6th/[623,646) 10.07 11.27 11.03 10.07 7.43 11.99 13.91 7.91 6.00 10.31 (7.7%) 6th/[651,672) 11.23 9.36 10.43 7.75 16.31 9.89 9.09 8.56 8.82 8.56 (8.2%) 7th/[646,681) 10.82 10.36 9.12 10.66 10.05 8.04 9.74 11.59 9.74 9.89 (12%) 7th/[672,705) 9.60 12.28 6.53 10.75 9.02 11.90 9.40 11.90 7.49 11.13 (11.5%) 8th/[681,722) 7.60 11.23 10.19 9.15 9.50 11.23 10.02 8.46 12.44 10.19 (10.7%) 8th/[705,746) 8.98 9.18 14.45 9.57 8.79 7.03 10.74 7.03 13.87 10.35 (11.3%) 9th/[722,773) 13.10 7.38 12.36 10.15 12.55 9.41 10.15 9.41 4.80 10.70 (10%) 9th/[746,806) 11.26 10.14 9.01 10.36 9.46 11.26 9.68 10.36 8.11 10.36 (9.8%) 10th/[773,860] 8.27 10.66 8.27 9.56 13.05 11.03 8.09 14.34 8.46 8.27 (10.1%) 10th/[806,900] 9.77 10.83 10.40 11.04 11.68 8.07 9.98 14.23 10.83 3.18 (10.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  13. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2021 Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall SGP, Grade 7 (N = 4,536) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Reading Comprehension Ctp Fall) Exceeds Expectations (16.6%) Prior Achievement Level Meets Expectations (34.6%) Does Not Meet (48.8%) Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [400,505) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 23 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 950 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 32.2 0.0 37.9 N = 87 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[400,552) 8.55 10.39 9.24 10.39 9.93 9.93 11.09 10.85 9.70 9.93 (9.5%) 100 2nd/[552,584) 12.62 8.81 11.43 9.05 9.05 11.19 7.38 11.43 8.33 10.71 (9.3%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[584,607) 8.41 11.36 8.41 11.59 10.68 9.55 13.41 6.59 9.55 10.45 (9.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[607,631) 8.81 7.99 12.50 9.63 9.02 9.22 10.86 11.07 9.63 11.27 (10.8%) 5th/[631,651) 10.39 11.32 8.31 13.63 7.85 9.24 7.62 11.09 10.85 9.70 (9.5%) 6th/[651,672) 11.23 9.36 10.43 7.75 16.31 9.89 9.09 8.56 8.82 8.56 (8.2%) 7th/[672,705) 9.60 12.28 6.53 10.75 9.02 11.90 9.40 11.90 7.49 11.13 (11.5%) 8th/[705,746) 8.98 9.18 14.45 9.57 8.79 7.03 10.74 7.03 13.87 10.35 (11.3%) 9th/[746,806) 11.26 10.14 9.01 10.36 9.46 11.26 9.68 10.36 8.11 10.36 (9.8%) 10th/[806,900] 9.77 10.83 10.40 11.04 11.68 8.07 9.98 14.23 10.83 3.18 (10.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  14. Fall Milestones to Spring Milestones Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022 Reading Comprehension MS Spring SGP, Grade 4 (N = 578) 2022 Reading Comprehension MS Spring SGP, Grade 5 (N = 746) Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [405,476) 70.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 20 Lowest OSS: [450,494) 66.7 16.7 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [697,733) 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.0 6.7 23.3 0.0 16.7 16.7 6.7 16.7 N = 30 Highest OSS: [ 790 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1 7.7 20.5 10.3 17.9 20.5 N = 39 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[343,463) 13.95 9.30 6.98 11.63 6.98 13.95 4.65 13.95 6.98 11.63 (7.4%) 100 1st/[368,513) 13.04 7.25 13.04 10.14 10.14 8.70 13.04 7.25 10.14 7.25 (9.2%) 100 2nd/[463,507) 8.96 10.45 17.91 5.97 7.46 10.45 16.42 8.96 7.46 5.97 (11.6%) 2nd/[513,539) 10.17 8.47 11.86 5.08 11.86 10.17 11.86 8.47 11.86 10.17 (7.9%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range Prior Scale Score Decile/Range 3rd/[507,521) 8.00 4.00 24.00 8.00 16.00 4.00 0.00 4.00 16.00 16.00 (4.3%) 3rd/[539,568) 10.26 12.82 6.41 10.26 11.54 7.69 11.54 14.10 5.13 10.26 (10.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[521,550) 12.16 10.81 4.05 13.51 12.16 12.16 4.05 10.81 12.16 8.11 (12.8%) 4th/[568,585) 9.80 5.88 11.76 17.65 9.80 0.00 13.73 3.92 19.61 7.84 (6.8%) 5th/[550,565) 4.76 9.52 11.90 14.29 7.14 23.81 0.00 16.67 4.76 7.14 (7.3%) 5th/[585,623) 12.61 10.81 9.01 7.21 9.91 16.22 4.50 9.01 11.71 9.01 (14.9%) 6th/[565,596) 12.79 8.14 11.63 9.30 11.63 4.65 11.63 11.63 6.98 11.63 (14.9%) 6th/[623,646) 4.62 13.85 10.77 7.69 10.77 13.85 13.85 6.15 7.69 10.77 (8.7%) 7th/[596,613) 15.79 7.89 10.53 5.26 21.05 15.79 0.00 7.89 5.26 10.53 (6.6%) 7th/[646,672) 15.38 9.23 3.08 18.46 7.69 10.77 6.15 6.15 16.92 6.15 (8.7%) 8th/[613,651) 12.99 9.09 7.79 10.39 11.69 11.69 11.69 2.60 15.58 6.49 (13.3%) 8th/[672,702) 12.50 6.25 20.31 4.69 10.94 6.25 10.94 10.94 6.25 10.94 (8.6%) 9th/[651,699) 1.61 9.68 17.74 8.06 9.68 1.61 16.13 17.74 4.84 12.90 (10.7%) 9th/[702,758) 8.26 12.84 5.50 11.93 12.84 15.60 0.00 17.43 9.17 6.42 (14.6%) 10th/[699,750] 20.31 3.12 15.62 6.25 14.06 10.94 4.69 12.50 7.81 4.69 (11.1%) 10th/[758,790] 12.00 12.00 10.67 13.33 8.00 12.00 4.00 10.67 17.33 0.00 (10.1%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  15. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022 Reading Comprehension MS Spring SGP, Grade 6 (N = 1,004) 2022 Reading Comprehension MS Spring SGP, Grade 7 (N = 856) Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [413,516) 71.0 16.1 9.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 31 Lowest OSS: [472,553) 50.0 14.3 21.4 7.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 28 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 824 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.0 54.3 8.6 20.0 N = 35 Highest OSS: [ 844 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6 0.0 16.3 7.0 39.5 9.3 9.3 N = 43 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[423,536) 11.11 13.89 9.72 9.72 8.33 9.72 9.72 8.33 9.72 9.72 (7.2%) 100 1st/[433,568) 10.67 8.00 12.00 8.00 12.00 12.00 9.33 10.67 6.67 10.67 (8.8%) 100 2nd/[536,578) 11.21 7.48 6.54 13.08 14.95 10.28 8.41 12.15 7.48 8.41 (10.7%) 2nd/[568,605) 14.13 10.87 10.87 7.61 8.70 7.61 11.96 6.52 13.04 8.70 (10.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range Prior Scale Score Decile/Range 3rd/[578,608) 9.00 15.00 13.00 5.00 10.00 6.00 7.00 11.00 11.00 13.00 (10%) 3rd/[605,631) 7.69 8.97 6.41 11.54 8.97 16.67 14.10 7.69 8.97 8.97 (9.1%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[608,627) 12.20 7.32 10.57 10.57 13.01 8.94 14.63 8.13 7.32 7.32 (12.3%) 4th/[631,659) 10.59 11.76 11.76 9.41 11.76 8.24 9.41 12.94 5.88 8.24 (9.9%) 5th/[627,658) 3.39 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 11.86 8.47 10.17 15.25 10.17 (5.9%) 5th/[659,674) 13.33 6.67 11.67 8.33 11.67 6.67 8.33 6.67 16.67 10.00 (7%) 6th/[658,698) 12.69 10.45 11.94 8.96 10.45 12.69 8.96 7.46 11.19 5.22 (13.3%) 6th/[674,707) 8.26 12.40 6.61 8.26 13.22 14.88 9.09 9.09 7.44 10.74 (14.1%) 7th/[698,721) 12.50 10.00 3.75 3.75 13.75 8.75 13.75 7.50 6.25 20.00 (8%) 7th/[707,726) 7.69 9.23 12.31 13.85 9.23 12.31 15.38 7.69 4.62 7.69 (7.6%) 8th/[721,747) 6.49 12.99 18.18 7.79 10.39 0.00 25.97 0.00 11.69 6.49 (7.7%) 8th/[726,771) 12.96 12.96 12.96 4.63 10.19 5.56 6.48 10.19 17.59 6.48 (12.6%) 9th/[747,817) 11.51 11.51 9.35 7.91 6.47 20.14 7.91 9.35 10.79 5.04 (13.8%) 9th/[771,800) 4.35 8.70 0.00 17.39 10.87 15.22 17.39 8.70 6.52 10.87 (5.4%) 10th/[817,860] 9.73 14.16 7.08 11.50 7.96 15.93 5.31 9.73 13.27 5.31 (11.3%) 10th/[800,900] 14.29 11.11 13.49 3.97 14.29 10.32 5.56 9.52 11.90 5.56 (14.7%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  16. Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022 Reading Comprehension MS Spring SGP, Grade 8 (N = 1,049) Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [468,550) 63.6 13.6 13.6 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [954,1] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 26.7 26.7 23.3 6.7 N = 30 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[430,605) 12.20 10.98 8.54 9.76 8.54 12.20 8.54 10.98 8.54 9.76 (7.8%) 100 2nd/[605,643) 8.79 10.99 10.99 13.19 9.89 7.69 9.89 10.99 8.79 8.79 (8.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range 3rd/[643,668) 11.24 8.99 5.62 16.85 11.24 13.48 4.49 7.87 10.11 10.11 (8.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[668,695) 13.57 3.57 17.14 0.00 9.29 10.71 14.29 10.71 12.86 7.86 (13.3%) 5th/[695,710) 10.23 13.64 6.82 4.55 22.73 4.55 18.18 5.68 0.00 13.64 (8.4%) 6th/[710,726) 12.79 15.12 5.81 18.60 0.00 16.28 0.00 8.14 13.95 9.30 (8.2%) 7th/[726,762) 6.62 7.28 16.56 11.92 5.30 9.27 11.26 11.26 11.26 9.27 (14.4%) 8th/[762,784) 11.63 8.14 5.81 5.81 24.42 6.98 13.95 5.81 15.12 2.33 (8.2%) 9th/[784,843) 14.17 11.67 8.33 12.50 5.00 9.17 7.50 13.33 8.33 10.00 (11.4%) 10th/[843,950] 12.07 11.21 6.90 14.66 10.34 12.93 3.45 15.52 6.03 6.90 (11.1%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  17. Questions