Rhode Island 2025 SGP Analyses

Rhode Island Department of Education · August 12, 2025

Rhode Island 2025 SGP Analyses — Rhode Island Department of Education, August 12, 2025.
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August 12, 2025

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  1. Rhode Island 2025 SGP Analyses Damian Betebenner The National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment August 12th, 2025 RIDE TAC Meeting This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
  2. SGP Results for 2025
  3. RICAS SGP Analyses in 2025: RICAS • Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for 2025 RICAS data: • Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the 2023, 2024 and 2025 students. These growth norms yield cohort mean (rounded)/median SGPs of 50. • Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using from 2017, 2018 and 2019 data. These growth norms (actually, coefficient matrices) are applied to 2023, 2024, and 2025 data. These growth growth analyses don’t have mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall COVID-19 academic recovery as well as potential scale drift • Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for 2025 data using both cohort and baseline growth norms. RI Academic Impact Discussion 2023
  4. RICAS SGP Analyses in 2025: PSAT/SAT • Two types of SGP analyses were conducted for PSAT to SAT data 2025 (single prior SAT growth data): • Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the 2024 and 2025 students. These growth norms yield cohort means/median SGPs of 50. • Baseline referenced analyses: Historical growth norms were created using from 2018 and 2019 data. These growth norms (actually, coefficient matrices) are applied to 2024, and 2025 data. These growth growth analyses don’t have mean/median SGPs of 50 and can be used to investigate overall COVID-19 academic recovery (NOTE: In the base year, mean/median of SGPs is 50) • No projections were calculated as the SAT (grade 11) is the last grade tested in Rhode Island. RI Academic Impact Discussion 2023
  5. RICAS/PSAT/SAT SGP Analyses • All analyses were conducted using data supplied by the Rhode Island Department of Education: • All analyses were conducted using the SGP package (version 2.2-2.0) • Source code for the SGP package and the Rhode Island analyses are available on on GitHub • Source Code for Analyses: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/ Rhode_Island • Source Code for SGP Package: https://github.com/CenterForAssessment/SGP • All analyses were conducted in June, July and August of 2025. • All analyses converged and goodness-of-fit plots confirmed successful analyses. RI Academic Impact Discussion 2023
  6. 2025 SGP Results • Mean/Median/Count for cohort referenced and baseline referenced SGP in ELA and mathematics are as follows: ELA Mathematics Grade Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced Cohort Referenced Baseline Referenced 11 (SAT) 49.6/50/9,219 50.1/51/9,219 49.5/50/9,293 50.7/51/9,293
  7. 2025 SGP Results • The cohort referenced results, not surprisingly, all center on 50. Goodness of fit plots all show excellent model fit (uniform distribution of percentiles across all levels of initial achievement) • The baseline referenced results (referenced to pre-pandemic growth norms/rates of learning) show: • ELA mostly near 50 with two exceptions: Grade 4 with a mean of 47.8 and Grade 7 with a mean of 54.5. • Mathematics Grades 5, 6, and 7 are well below 50 with Grade 4 above 50 and grades 8 and 11 near 50. • In the following section we dig deeper into results with regard to growth changes over time.
  8. In Depth Analysis of SGP Trends
  9. A Timeline of the Pandemic Pandemic Begins Spring 2019 Spring 2020 Spring 2023 Spring 2024 Spring 2025 Pre-pandemic (No testing) Academic Impact Academic Recovery Academic Recovery • Five years on from the onset of the pandemic, concerns regarding the academic impact of the pandemic on students. • We examine changes in growth over time to suggest: • Continued effects of the pandemic on the learning of students (i.e., ripple effects of the pandemic). • Possible scale drift/movement. Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 9
  10. Where Were They During the Pandemic? Pandemic Years (Spring 2020 to Current: 2024-2025 Summer 2021) 2019-2020: Grade PPK Grade 3 2020-2021: Grade PK 2019-2020: Grade PK Grade 4 2020-2021: Grade K 2019-2020: Grade K Grade 5 2020-2021: Grade 1 2019-2020: Grade 1 Grade 6 2020-2021: Grade 2 2019-2020: Grade 2 Grade 7 2020-2021: Grade 3 2019-2020: Grade 3 Grade 8 2020-2021: Grade 4 2019-2020: Grade 4 Grade 10 2020-2021 Grade 5 2019-2020: Grade 5 Grade 11 Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 2020-2021: Grade 6 10
  11. Examining growth trends over time • Taking account of what grades the students were in when the pandemic happened, we can examine both how this cohort grew over time as well as how the system “adapted” as they increased from grade to grade. • For example, one caution expressed following the pandemic was that students whose early literacy instruction was severely disrupted could face increased risk of downstream academic adversity due to inadequate foundational skills. • We consider, for example, the students currently in Grade 7 who were in Grade 2 (spring 2020) and Grade 3 (2020-2021 academic year). Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 11
  12. ELA Grade 7 2025 Grade 2 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 3 2020-2021 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 5 (N = 9,210) 2023−2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,094) 2024−2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,144) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Exceeding (2.6%) Exceeding (2.8%) Exceeding (6.2%) Meeting (26.6%) Meeting Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Meeting (32.1%) (22.5%) Partially Meeting (38.1%) Partially Meeting (49.5%) Partially Meeting (44.7%) Not Meeting (33.1%) Not Meeting (21.4%) Not Meeting (20.3%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−3.33,−3.21] 86.2 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 29 Lowest OSS: [−3.13,−3.12] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Lowest OSS: [−3.13,−3.06] 27.8 8.3 27.8 11.1 19.4 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 36 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.4931 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.7 20.0 31.1 40.0 N = 45 Highest OSS: [ 2.8776 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 11.1 25.9 55.6 N = 54 (2.49,3.43] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 32.5 62.5 N = 40 Highest OSS: [ 3.14989 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.8 1.8 10.7 82.1 N = 56 (2.88,3.15] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.8 7.7 84.6 N = 26 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−3.1,−2.2) 10.95 10.53 7.11 11.81 11.38 10.38 10.24 7.82 10.95 8.82 (7.6%) 100 1st/[−3.3,−2.3) 3.16 7.11 7.51 15.42 31.62 8.83 5.67 8.43 4.08 8.17 (8.3%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−3) 39.48 3.03 4.13 4.95 10.59 9.35 7.15 8.80 5.78 6.74 (8%) 100 2nd/[−2.2,−1.6) 15.18 8.49 11.49 10.59 7.19 11.29 8.99 8.89 8.09 9.79 (10.9%) 2nd/[−2.3,−1.7) 5.15 15.88 15.66 13.42 10.40 8.84 8.39 7.49 8.50 6.26 (9.8%) 2nd/[−3,−2.2) 21.60 3.25 5.33 7.50 9.27 7.50 9.96 10.55 9.76 15.29 (11.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.6,−1.2) 13.88 10.44 11.03 8.90 10.68 9.25 6.76 9.37 9.13 10.56 (9.2%) 3rd/[−1.7,−1.1) 14.39 13.39 13.69 10.09 11.29 7.89 9.29 6.99 6.79 6.19 (11%) 3rd/[−2.2,−1.8) 9.69 7.40 7.78 9.31 6.89 7.02 11.61 10.33 10.71 19.26 (8.6%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.2,−0.92) 11.91 10.69 13.67 9.70 10.47 8.82 9.15 7.39 7.83 10.36 (9.8%) 4th/[−1.1,−0.83) 19.84 11.38 12.70 10.32 9.39 8.33 7.41 8.60 6.35 5.69 (8.3%) 4th/[−1.8,−1.2) 7.82 6.34 7.72 8.81 8.61 9.60 8.71 12.67 12.08 17.62 (11%) 5th/[−0.92,−0.6) 11.00 9.38 10.90 11.40 9.49 10.70 9.28 8.88 9.38 9.59 (10.8%) 5th/[−0.83,−0.41) 20.46 11.83 13.52 9.61 9.52 7.65 7.21 7.65 6.94 5.60 (12.4%) 5th/[−1.2,−0.89) 7.30 7.66 5.30 8.95 8.60 9.07 8.95 11.90 12.13 20.14 (9.3%) 6th/[−0.6,−0.28) 8.69 9.26 9.84 8.40 9.93 12.13 11.46 9.74 11.56 8.98 (11.4%) 6th/[−0.41,−0.18) 20.31 13.12 11.25 7.66 9.84 8.44 9.06 6.56 6.41 7.34 (7%) 6th/[−0.89,−0.4) 6.94 5.99 6.46 9.13 8.56 8.94 8.08 10.36 17.49 18.06 (11.5%) 7th/[−0.28,−0.05) 9.92 8.92 10.48 9.63 9.77 10.76 10.48 9.49 9.92 10.62 (7.7%) 7th/[−0.18,0.2) 17.61 12.20 10.28 11.01 8.07 8.99 9.63 7.98 7.34 6.88 (12%) 7th/[−0.4,−0.02) 5.62 6.99 7.12 8.36 8.36 8.86 12.36 10.61 14.23 17.48 (8.8%) 8th/[−0.05,0.31) 9.09 8.69 10.59 9.19 8.29 11.59 11.89 9.79 9.59 11.29 (10.9%) 8th/[0.2,0.48) 13.86 12.65 10.63 10.23 10.50 7.54 6.86 10.90 7.81 9.02 (8.2%) 8th/[−0.02,0.52) 6.18 7.67 7.87 9.36 7.07 10.76 8.86 11.35 14.14 16.73 (11%) 9th/[0.31,0.73) 6.89 9.53 8.27 8.27 11.02 10.45 13.89 10.33 11.83 9.53 (9.5%) 9th/[0.48,0.97) 13.33 9.77 10.58 8.85 8.95 9.87 7.12 9.36 9.77 12.41 (10.8%) 9th/[0.52,1.1) 6.07 7.26 9.17 9.05 8.57 12.98 11.79 10.48 11.07 13.57 (9.2%) 10th/[0.73,3.2] 5.61 7.46 8.86 11.84 11.05 12.19 10.79 11.05 10.61 10.53 (12.4%) 10th/[0.97,3.4] 8.51 8.61 8.61 6.70 7.79 12.23 10.14 12.23 11.68 13.50 (12.1%) 10th/[1.1,3.1] 7.15 9.88 9.41 10.54 9.97 12.23 9.41 9.78 9.22 12.42 (11.6%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  13. ELA Grade 8 2025 Grade 3 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 4 2020-2021 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,201) 2023−2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,239) 2024−2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 9,217) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Exceeding (3.4%) Exceeding (4.9%) Exceeding (3.7%) Meeting Meeting (23.5%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level (28.1%) Meeting (27.4%) Partially Meeting (37.1%) Partially Meeting (44.2%) Partially Meeting (50.8%) Not Meeting (30.6%) Not Meeting (28.6%) Not Meeting (17.7%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−3.16,−3.14] 31.0 6.9 24.1 17.2 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 29 Lowest OSS: [−3.12,−3.08] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 37 Lowest OSS: [−2.95,−2.91] 80.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 40 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.961 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 2.9 5.7 8.6 2.9 77.1 N = 35 Highest OSS: [ 2.7012 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.7 0.0 2.3 0.0 11.6 11.6 67.4 N = 43 Highest OSS: [ 2.929 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.2 2.4 1.2 14.5 3.6 74.7 N = 83 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−3.3,−2.1) 15.52 15.27 16.03 19.21 8.14 7.89 5.09 4.96 3.44 4.45 (8.5%) 100 1st/[−3.2,−3.1) 39.53 7.91 2.17 5.34 11.26 14.03 4.74 5.14 4.15 5.73 (7.9%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−2.6) 12.89 24.27 4.76 3.37 9.06 9.06 6.27 8.83 11.61 9.87 (9.3%) 100 2nd/[−2.1,−1.5) 21.39 17.77 11.04 8.30 9.86 5.08 6.15 7.03 7.42 5.96 (11.1%) 2nd/[−3.1,−2.3) 23.82 5.67 3.75 7.50 9.42 10.99 9.34 7.68 10.21 11.61 (9.9%) 2nd/[−2.6,−2) 14.77 14.66 8.46 8.57 9.81 9.92 6.54 7.44 9.02 10.82 (9.6%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.5,−1.1) 20.54 13.16 10.21 9.84 6.89 7.38 7.63 8.98 8.00 7.38 (8.8%) 3rd/[−2.3,−1.7) 11.46 8.95 7.64 8.95 11.03 6.44 11.35 11.03 10.04 13.10 (9.9%) 3rd/[−2,−1.5) 11.36 10.69 9.00 9.45 9.00 10.35 7.87 9.45 10.12 12.71 (9.6%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.1,−0.77) 17.27 13.86 13.15 11.14 10.44 6.12 8.23 7.43 6.12 6.22 (10.8%) 4th/[−1.7,−1.1) 10.97 7.67 6.50 8.35 8.25 11.26 10.49 10.49 12.91 13.11 (11.1%) 4th/[−1.5,−1.1) 10.54 10.64 10.34 9.21 9.83 8.39 10.44 9.11 10.34 11.16 (10.6%) 5th/[−0.77,−0.46) 17.74 12.14 10.77 8.76 9.29 8.34 8.76 7.81 9.40 6.97 (10.3%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.75) 12.78 8.28 7.34 8.05 11.83 8.52 8.05 9.82 11.48 13.85 (9.1%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.75) 9.48 7.39 9.36 8.74 9.73 11.95 9.73 9.11 11.95 12.56 (8.8%) 6th/[−0.46,−0.24) 19.17 9.82 9.36 9.82 11.04 7.67 7.82 8.74 9.82 6.75 (7.1%) 6th/[−0.75,−0.36) 11.70 9.52 6.77 10.21 8.83 9.29 9.40 8.94 12.39 12.96 (9.4%) 6th/[−0.75,−0.43) 10.87 10.16 10.63 8.72 11.23 11.47 8.00 9.44 11.59 7.89 (9.1%) 7th/[−0.24,0.11) 18.25 11.89 8.66 10.78 8.29 8.39 8.57 7.65 8.20 9.31 (11.8%) 7th/[−0.36,0.05) 9.15 11.06 8.94 10.85 8.72 12.02 8.83 8.62 10.32 11.49 (10.2%) 7th/[−0.43,0.01) 10.54 11.91 11.91 8.57 9.85 10.54 10.28 9.00 8.91 8.48 (12.7%) 8th/[0.11,0.5) 15.14 11.24 10.86 9.52 8.29 9.24 9.14 8.67 7.62 10.29 (11.4%) 8th/[0.05,0.49) 11.33 11.56 11.67 10.89 8.78 10.00 7.22 8.67 10.11 9.78 (9.7%) 8th/[0.01,0.36) 10.82 12.70 11.82 7.67 8.81 10.44 10.06 10.19 7.42 10.06 (8.6%) 9th/[0.5,0.96) 11.23 11.97 11.97 6.59 10.38 11.23 8.06 9.89 8.91 9.77 (8.9%) 9th/[0.49,1.2) 13.04 11.89 11.03 9.68 9.49 9.59 9.68 8.25 8.72 8.63 (11.3%) 9th/[0.36,0.93) 8.74 10.45 8.32 8.10 11.73 9.91 10.66 9.28 10.02 12.79 (10.2%) 10th/[0.96,3.4] 10.98 11.18 10.79 6.61 10.20 10.88 9.43 9.43 11.56 8.94 (11.2%) 10th/[1.2,3.1] 12.30 11.34 10.57 8.93 9.41 9.89 9.61 9.13 6.72 12.10 (11.3%) 10th/[0.93,3.1] 10.63 8.44 10.63 9.49 9.96 6.36 13.47 7.31 9.39 14.33 (11.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  14. Mathematics Grade 7 2025 Grade 2 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 3 2020-2021 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 Math SGP, Grade 5 (N = 9,280) 2023−2024 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,156) 2024−2025 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,235) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Exceeding (3.2%) Exceeding (2.4%) Exceeding (3.2%) Meeting (27.3%) Meeting (27.7%) Meeting (23%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Partially Meeting (46.2%) Partially Meeting (49.9%) Partially Meeting (52.1%) Not Meeting (23.3%) Not Meeting (17.7%) Not Meeting (23.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−3.08,−2.93] 6.5 6.5 29.0 45.2 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 31 Lowest OSS: [−2.99,−2.92] 70.8 12.5 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Lowest OSS: [−2.84,−2.79] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 46 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.5157 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 30.6 5.6 52.8 N = 36 Highest OSS: [2.405,2.964) 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 44.0 N = 25 Highest OSS: [2.307,2.608) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 5.4 0.0 8.1 8.1 10.8 16.2 40.5 N = 37 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−2.8,−2.1) 1.41 2.82 9.86 14.63 10.94 11.05 7.15 13.00 8.78 20.37 (9.9%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−1.9) 8.82 15.46 9.28 13.17 7.90 10.19 11.80 7.22 7.79 8.36 (9.5%) 100 1st/[−3,−2) 20.71 2.33 12.85 11.52 8.75 11.52 7.31 7.20 9.08 8.75 (9.8%) 100 2nd/[−2.1,−1.6) 2.33 6.76 5.90 6.27 8.60 11.79 8.35 14.50 15.85 19.66 (8.8%) 2nd/[−1.9,−1.5) 13.45 12.78 14.25 10.25 8.79 10.52 7.06 7.32 7.59 7.99 (8.2%) 2nd/[−2,−1.7) 16.59 5.74 15.04 13.18 8.22 10.85 8.37 7.29 6.05 8.68 (7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.6,−1.2) 3.98 7.74 6.53 6.08 10.51 10.84 9.40 11.73 16.81 16.37 (9.7%) 3rd/[−1.5,−1.2) 14.58 13.43 13.89 9.18 9.76 8.38 9.07 6.89 4.82 9.99 (9.5%) 3rd/[−1.7,−1.3) 10.73 13.21 9.80 11.15 9.29 9.49 9.08 7.74 9.91 9.60 (10.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.2,−0.83) 5.65 7.10 7.98 9.20 9.98 9.98 9.09 10.86 13.08 17.07 (9.7%) 4th/[−1.2,−0.83) 18.05 14.95 13.04 7.75 7.66 7.66 7.57 7.75 7.29 8.30 (12%) 4th/[−1.3,−1) 12.53 13.74 12.64 10.66 8.02 7.69 8.24 7.47 9.34 9.67 (9.9%) 5th/[−0.83,−0.54) 6.50 8.43 9.24 9.24 9.95 9.14 12.49 10.86 10.36 13.81 (10.6%) 5th/[−0.83,−0.6) 21.46 12.30 9.54 9.91 6.52 7.90 7.90 6.90 7.78 9.79 (8.7%) 5th/[−1,−0.67) 12.42 11.95 10.91 12.04 8.18 9.31 8.28 10.44 8.94 7.53 (11.5%) 6th/[−0.54,−0.26) 8.21 9.00 8.89 11.92 6.97 10.69 10.57 8.55 10.12 15.07 (9.6%) 6th/[−0.6,−0.3) 19.52 12.21 10.44 8.14 7.83 8.25 8.77 9.60 8.46 6.78 (10.5%) 6th/[−0.67,−0.37) 15.13 10.98 10.68 9.40 9.20 9.89 8.01 8.70 9.59 8.41 (10.9%) 7th/[−0.26,0.08) 9.71 8.74 10.49 9.71 7.18 8.54 10.58 12.33 9.03 13.69 (11.1%) 7th/[−0.3,0.07) 16.14 11.56 10.79 8.98 8.12 7.55 8.12 10.32 9.65 8.79 (11.4%) 7th/[−0.37,−0.08) 15.86 14.33 8.86 8.32 9.63 8.32 7.99 8.53 8.53 9.63 (9.9%) 8th/[0.08,0.45) 9.14 10.12 8.05 8.60 7.18 10.45 9.25 10.66 11.43 15.13 (9.9%) 8th/[0.07,0.37) 16.78 13.65 9.36 8.97 8.71 10.01 7.67 9.62 6.37 8.84 (8.4%) 8th/[−0.08,0.27) 15.19 12.94 13.05 10.57 10.12 9.11 7.87 5.74 7.87 7.54 (9.6%) 9th/[0.45,0.98) 9.46 7.09 8.63 9.56 8.53 9.46 9.97 10.79 11.00 15.52 (10.5%) 9th/[0.37,0.87) 16.96 12.51 8.69 9.20 9.20 10.86 8.79 9.62 6.83 7.34 (10.6%) 9th/[0.27,0.78) 18.05 11.17 10.74 13.00 7.84 5.37 8.81 7.30 6.23 11.49 (10.1%) 10th/[0.98,2.9] 5.42 7.23 8.08 10.41 12.11 8.82 10.52 9.56 14.98 12.86 (10.1%) 10th/[0.87,3.2] 16.67 11.60 11.60 9.75 8.58 8.48 10.23 6.82 8.28 7.99 (11.2%) 10th/[0.78,3] 9.40 10.50 10.70 11.50 10.30 7.80 8.40 10.30 9.00 12.10 (10.8%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  15. Mathematics Grade 6 2025 Grade 1 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 2 2020-2021 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 Math SGP, Grade 4 (N = 9,327) 2023−2024 Math SGP, Grade 5 (N = 9,392) 2024−2025 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,208) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Exceeding (3.9%) Exceeding (5.4%) Exceeding (2.7%) Meeting (27.4%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Meeting (31.2%) Meeting (30.7%) Partially Meeting (40.3%) Partially Meeting (41.8%) Partially Meeting (53%) Not Meeting (24.6%) Not Meeting (22.1%) Not Meeting (16.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−2.78,−2.73] 58.3 29.2 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Lowest OSS: [−3.08,−3.03] 22.7 9.1 27.3 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Lowest OSS: [−2.98,−2.82] 42.2 22.2 35.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 45 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.4933 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 18.8 47.9 N = 48 Highest OSS: [ 2.4314 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 25.6 25.6 17.9 25.6 N = 39 Highest OSS: [ 2.3902 ] 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 5.1 0.0 8.5 6.8 3.4 27.1 16.9 30.5 N = 59 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−2.8,−2.2) 1.66 2.26 9.03 14.25 12.71 1.90 10.45 7.48 17.81 22.45 (9%) 100 1st/[−2.8,−2) 1.21 3.42 8.82 8.82 8.49 9.70 12.46 14.22 13.34 19.51 (9.7%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−1.8) 7.38 18.15 17.52 11.39 9.39 8.89 8.39 5.63 6.63 6.63 (8.7%) 100 2nd/[−2.2,−1.6) 5.04 9.24 5.67 8.93 14.08 5.99 10.71 11.66 10.82 17.86 (10.2%) 2nd/[−2,−1.5) 2.87 4.11 8.98 7.61 9.73 11.72 12.47 14.71 13.72 14.09 (8.5%) 2nd/[−1.8,−1.3) 13.97 17.82 13.29 10.50 8.86 9.83 7.13 6.26 6.17 6.17 (11.3%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.6,−1.3) 6.18 11.04 3.94 10.38 10.12 7.23 9.86 14.06 9.99 17.21 (8.2%) 3rd/[−1.5,−1) 3.97 8.67 8.46 9.20 10.66 12.02 8.88 11.49 14.00 12.64 (10.2%) 3rd/[−1.3,−1.1) 17.67 16.84 13.90 9.66 6.01 8.95 7.07 6.83 6.12 6.95 (9.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.3,−0.78) 7.49 7.83 6.64 6.64 11.83 10.89 7.83 10.55 11.40 18.89 (12.6%) 4th/[−1,−0.64) 6.67 8.43 9.45 10.84 12.14 12.42 10.75 10.84 8.25 10.19 (11.5%) 4th/[−1.1,−0.82) 18.22 13.57 11.86 11.37 6.97 9.78 6.85 6.60 6.72 8.07 (8.9%) 5th/[−0.78,−0.53) 7.45 5.24 10.76 5.66 11.03 10.48 8.14 8.83 12.00 20.41 (7.8%) 5th/[−0.64,−0.36) 10.92 11.38 11.03 12.64 10.46 9.54 10.69 8.74 6.44 8.16 (9.3%) 5th/[−0.82,−0.52) 21.24 13.39 12.32 9.02 7.27 6.60 6.30 7.76 8.15 7.95 (11.2%) 6th/[−0.53,−0.11) 9.27 7.24 7.15 6.88 9.89 10.86 9.18 12.36 12.62 14.56 (12.1%) 6th/[−0.36,−0.07) 10.80 11.77 12.42 12.74 9.29 10.26 9.83 10.15 7.02 5.72 (9.9%) 6th/[−0.52,−0.23) 17.77 10.15 11.07 8.12 8.63 9.14 10.46 8.32 9.34 7.01 (10.7%) 7th/[−0.11,0.15) 6.34 8.13 5.23 10.61 10.19 11.57 4.13 15.43 10.74 17.63 (7.8%) 7th/[−0.07,0.23) 13.48 12.28 13.70 11.74 9.35 10.11 6.63 7.83 6.85 8.04 (9.8%) 7th/[−0.23,0.06) 15.72 11.57 8.08 8.73 8.95 9.28 10.15 8.73 8.95 9.83 (9.9%) 8th/[0.15,0.53) 6.34 8.48 7.41 8.38 9.55 8.77 8.58 10.72 13.74 18.03 (11%) 8th/[0.23,0.57) 12.95 12.95 11.15 12.73 9.35 10.14 8.00 6.76 8.22 7.77 (9.5%) 8th/[0.06,0.37) 15.61 8.88 7.49 9.52 9.14 10.79 9.64 10.66 8.50 9.77 (8.6%) 9th/[0.53,0.98) 4.56 8.79 8.58 9.00 12.18 6.57 14.30 7.31 15.36 13.35 (10.1%) 9th/[0.57,1.1) 14.02 12.22 10.23 12.31 10.51 9.85 8.05 7.48 7.10 8.24 (11.2%) 9th/[0.37,0.86) 11.63 9.29 9.18 9.80 8.57 11.63 9.80 10.82 8.88 10.41 (10.6%) 10th/[0.98,2.8] 6.23 8.25 7.96 5.27 12.75 7.38 10.07 13.61 14.57 13.90 (11.2%) 10th/[1.1,2.9] 13.58 11.65 9.63 9.63 10.44 8.21 8.31 10.44 9.42 8.71 (10.5%) 10th/[0.86,3.2] 9.06 10.86 9.66 10.16 9.36 10.56 10.86 8.76 10.06 10.66 (10.9%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  16. Examining growth trends over time • We can also examine growth trends for the same grade over time. • Larger changes in growth for the same grade over a 1 year time span would be indicative of scale drift. • Smaller changes could represent changes in educational efficacy or (as we just investigated) different cohorts of students passing through the grade with differing educational needs due to pandemic related educational disruptions earlier in the students schooling. Pandemic Related Academic Recovery in Rhode Island 16
  17. ELA Grade 7 2023, 2024 2025 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,303) 2023−2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,239) 2024−2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,144) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Exceeding (5.5%) Exceeding (4.9%) Exceeding (6.2%) Prior Achievement Level Meeting (25.9%) Meeting Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Meeting (27.4%) (22.5%) Partially Meeting (36.9%) Partially Meeting (37.1%) Partially Meeting (38.1%) Not Meeting (31.7%) Not Meeting (30.6%) Not Meeting (33.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 1 5 1 5 Lowest OSS: [−3.12,−3.08] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 37 Lowest OSS: [−3.13,−3.12] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Lowest OSS: [−3.11,−3.04] 88.9 8.9 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 45 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.7012 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.7 0.0 2.3 0.0 11.6 11.6 67.4 N = 43 Highest OSS: [ 2.8776 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 11.1 25.9 55.6 N = 54 Highest OSS: [ 3.15263 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.5 1.9 5.7 77.4 N = 53 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 9 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 to 10 to to to to to to to to to 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 to 10 to to to to to to to to to 1st/[−3.1,−2.8) 22.53 9.89 6.08 6.32 9.89 11.92 8.46 9.06 5.84 10.01 (9%) 100 100 100 1st/[−3.2,−3.1) 39.53 7.91 2.17 5.34 11.26 14.03 4.74 5.14 4.15 5.73 (7.9%) 1st/[−3.1,−3) 39.48 3.03 4.13 4.95 10.59 9.35 7.15 8.80 5.78 6.74 (8%) 2nd/[−2.8,−2.1) 15.04 9.18 9.18 8.96 9.07 9.07 10.18 9.62 9.07 10.62 (9.7%) 2nd/[−3.1,−2.3) 23.82 5.67 3.75 7.50 9.42 10.99 9.34 7.68 10.21 11.61 (9.9%) 2nd/[−3,−2.2) 21.60 3.25 5.33 7.50 9.27 7.50 9.96 10.55 9.76 15.29 (11.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−2.1,−1.6) 10.16 7.27 7.59 8.98 11.87 11.23 11.55 11.34 8.02 11.98 (10.1%) 3rd/[−2.3,−1.7) 11.46 8.95 7.64 8.95 11.03 6.44 11.35 11.03 10.04 13.10 (9.9%) 3rd/[−2.2,−1.8) 9.69 7.40 7.78 9.31 6.89 7.02 11.61 10.33 10.71 19.26 (8.6%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.6,−1.1) 8.80 6.94 6.84 9.38 10.85 11.63 10.56 12.41 10.07 12.51 (11%) 4th/[−1.7,−1.1) 10.97 7.67 6.50 8.35 8.25 11.26 10.49 10.49 12.91 13.11 (11.1%) 4th/[−1.8,−1.2) 7.82 6.34 7.72 8.81 8.61 9.60 8.71 12.67 12.08 17.62 (11%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.78) 10.45 9.57 7.56 10.71 10.96 9.57 7.43 12.22 10.71 10.83 (8.5%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.75) 12.78 8.28 7.34 8.05 11.83 8.52 8.05 9.82 11.48 13.85 (9.1%) 5th/[−1.2,−0.89) 7.30 7.66 5.30 8.95 8.60 9.07 8.95 11.90 12.13 20.14 (9.3%) 6th/[−0.78,−0.43) 10.84 7.19 8.07 11.60 10.34 8.45 10.97 10.59 10.09 11.85 (8.5%) 6th/[−0.75,−0.36) 11.70 9.52 6.77 10.21 8.83 9.29 9.40 8.94 12.39 12.96 (9.4%) 6th/[−0.89,−0.4) 6.94 5.99 6.46 9.13 8.56 8.94 8.08 10.36 17.49 18.06 (11.5%) 7th/[−0.43,0.05) 6.33 10.92 9.17 9.27 10.55 9.36 11.19 11.56 12.02 9.63 (11.7%) 7th/[−0.36,0.05) 9.15 11.06 8.94 10.85 8.72 12.02 8.83 8.62 10.32 11.49 (10.2%) 7th/[−0.4,−0.02) 5.62 6.99 7.12 8.36 8.36 8.86 12.36 10.61 14.23 17.48 (8.8%) 8th/[0.05,0.45) 9.37 10.63 12.11 9.60 9.94 9.03 9.60 9.26 10.17 10.29 (9.4%) 8th/[0.05,0.49) 11.33 11.56 11.67 10.89 8.78 10.00 7.22 8.67 10.11 9.78 (9.7%) 8th/[−0.02,0.52) 6.18 7.67 7.87 9.36 7.07 10.76 8.86 11.35 14.14 16.73 (11%) 9th/[0.45,1.1) 11.14 10.94 8.73 9.64 8.73 9.74 11.35 8.23 9.64 11.85 (10.7%) 9th/[0.49,1.2) 13.04 11.89 11.03 9.68 9.49 9.59 9.68 8.25 8.72 8.63 (11.3%) 9th/[0.52,1.1) 6.07 7.26 9.17 9.05 8.57 12.98 11.79 10.48 11.07 13.57 (9.2%) 10th/[1.1,3.1] 8.06 7.87 9.58 11.57 7.97 12.90 9.96 9.20 8.06 14.80 (11.3%) 10th/[1.2,3.1] 12.30 11.34 10.57 8.93 9.41 9.89 9.61 9.13 6.72 12.10 (11.3%) 10th/[1.1,3.1] 7.15 9.88 9.41 10.54 9.97 12.23 9.41 9.78 9.22 12.42 (11.6%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  18. ELA Grade 8 2023, 2024 2025 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 9,421) 2023−2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 9,311) 2024−2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 9,217) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Exceeding (3.5%) Exceeding (4.6%) Exceeding (3.7%) Meeting (25.9%) Meeting Meeting (23.5%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Partially Meeting (42.3%) Partially Meeting (43.6%) Partially Meeting (44.2%) Not Meeting (28.3%) Not Meeting (27%) Not Meeting (28.6%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−2.95,−2.91] 80.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 40 Lowest OSS: [−2.96,−2.95] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Lowest OSS: [−2.96,−2.93] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.929 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.2 2.4 1.2 14.5 3.6 74.7 N = 83 Highest OSS: [ 3.06624 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 2.5 14.8 79.0 N = 81 Highest OSS: [ 3.06624 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 11.4 15.2 68.4 N = 79 (2.93,3.07] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 11.4 14.3 71.4 N = 35 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−3.1,−2.5) 57.97 1.07 3.61 2.28 8.70 6.02 5.89 5.09 4.42 4.95 (7.9%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−2.5) 35.14 9.23 2.14 2.03 12.27 9.23 6.08 8.11 8.00 7.77 (9.5%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−2.6) 12.89 24.27 4.76 3.37 9.06 9.06 6.27 8.83 11.61 9.87 (9.3%) 100 2nd/[−2.5,−1.9) 35.74 9.47 8.83 6.89 8.83 7.97 5.92 4.74 4.84 6.78 (9.9%) 2nd/[−2.5,−2) 32.67 8.14 10.14 9.20 10.02 7.67 5.19 5.07 5.31 6.60 (9.1%) 2nd/[−2.6,−2) 14.77 14.66 8.46 8.57 9.81 9.92 6.54 7.44 9.02 10.82 (9.6%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.9,−1.5) 23.94 13.49 8.52 8.01 8.22 7.61 6.09 7.81 8.22 8.11 (10.5%) 3rd/[−2,−1.4) 25.27 15.32 9.27 9.46 7.71 9.07 5.17 6.93 5.66 6.15 (11%) 3rd/[−2,−1.5) 11.36 10.69 9.00 9.45 9.00 10.35 7.87 9.45 10.12 12.71 (9.6%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.5,−1) 19.71 11.23 11.79 7.73 9.67 9.02 6.54 6.91 7.46 9.94 (11.5%) 4th/[−1.4,−1.1) 21.70 12.22 10.85 10.72 8.98 8.85 7.11 5.99 6.61 6.98 (8.6%) 4th/[−1.5,−1.1) 10.54 10.64 10.34 9.21 9.83 8.39 10.44 9.11 10.34 11.16 (10.6%) 5th/[−1,−0.71) 17.17 12.36 11.64 8.16 8.88 7.32 7.56 8.04 9.96 8.88 (8.8%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.78) 20.97 13.51 9.12 9.12 7.94 9.36 8.53 5.92 7.82 7.70 (9.1%) 5th/[−1.1,−0.75) 9.48 7.39 9.36 8.74 9.73 11.95 9.73 9.11 11.95 12.56 (8.8%) 6th/[−0.71,−0.4) 19.03 10.34 11.55 6.82 10.34 8.36 6.82 9.90 8.25 8.58 (9.6%) 6th/[−0.78,−0.38) 18.01 13.89 11.70 8.32 8.96 8.41 8.04 7.50 7.50 7.68 (11.7%) 6th/[−0.75,−0.43) 10.87 10.16 10.63 8.72 11.23 11.47 8.00 9.44 11.59 7.89 (9.1%) 7th/[−0.4,−0.09) 19.73 11.34 13.61 8.28 7.60 8.39 9.41 6.01 7.03 8.62 (9.4%) 7th/[−0.38,−0.07) 16.58 10.89 12.15 7.72 9.11 7.97 10.00 10.25 9.37 5.95 (8.5%) 7th/[−0.43,0.01) 10.54 11.91 11.91 8.57 9.85 10.54 10.28 9.00 8.91 8.48 (12.7%) 8th/[−0.09,0.35) 14.34 12.48 11.79 6.39 10.81 8.55 8.64 7.27 8.25 11.49 (10.8%) 8th/[−0.07,0.35) 14.23 11.81 12.71 7.97 9.28 9.89 10.60 7.57 7.27 8.68 (10.6%) 8th/[0.01,0.36) 10.82 12.70 11.82 7.67 8.81 10.44 10.06 10.19 7.42 10.06 (8.6%) 9th/[0.35,0.85) 14.12 12.38 9.66 9.34 8.79 8.90 9.88 7.27 7.71 11.94 (9.8%) 9th/[0.35,0.98) 14.82 8.93 8.22 7.51 9.24 9.54 12.59 9.04 8.43 11.68 (10.6%) 9th/[0.36,0.93) 8.74 10.45 8.32 8.10 11.73 9.91 10.66 9.28 10.02 12.79 (10.2%) 10th/[0.85,3.1] 9.28 8.38 10.81 7.39 8.92 6.94 11.08 7.57 11.80 17.84 (11.8%) 10th/[0.98,3.1] 9.48 6.99 9.10 7.95 8.62 8.62 11.88 6.90 13.31 17.15 (11.2%) 10th/[0.93,3.1] 10.63 8.44 10.63 9.49 9.96 6.36 13.47 7.31 9.39 14.33 (11.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  19. Mathematics Grade 7 2023, 2024 2025 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,313) 2023−2024 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,279) 2024−2025 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 9,235) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Exceeding (1.7%) Exceeding (2.7%) Exceeding (3.2%) Meeting (26%) Meeting (26.6%) Meeting (23%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Partially Meeting (49.2%) Partially Meeting (47.3%) Partially Meeting (49.9%) Not Meeting (23.1%) Not Meeting (23.4%) Not Meeting (23.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−2.86,−2.84] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 42 Lowest OSS: [−2.86,−2.77] 87.2 5.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 39 Lowest OSS: [−2.84,−2.79] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 46 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.4955 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.5 9.7 22.6 58.1 N = 31 Highest OSS: [2.328,2.71) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 2.6 10.5 10.5 15.8 55.3 N = 38 Highest OSS: [2.307,2.608) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 5.4 0.0 8.1 8.1 10.8 16.2 40.5 N = 37 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−3,−2) 30.30 0.00 12.58 8.22 14.51 7.06 6.03 8.22 6.16 6.93 (8.4%) 100 1st/[−3,−2) 7.63 13.85 14.94 11.34 9.05 8.18 8.07 10.47 9.05 7.42 (9.9%) 100 1st/[−3,−2) 20.71 2.33 12.85 11.52 8.75 11.52 7.31 7.20 9.08 8.75 (9.8%) 100 2nd/[−2,−1.6) 21.62 4.44 12.42 12.93 7.98 9.80 7.17 7.58 8.38 7.68 (10.6%) 2nd/[−2,−1.7) 10.92 9.05 11.86 13.57 7.18 10.92 9.20 10.92 9.05 7.33 (6.9%) 2nd/[−2,−1.7) 16.59 5.74 15.04 13.18 8.22 10.85 8.37 7.29 6.05 8.68 (7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.6,−1.2) 14.01 11.36 11.17 11.75 6.56 9.79 8.81 8.62 8.23 9.70 (11%) 3rd/[−1.7,−1.2) 8.98 12.43 10.24 11.25 9.15 9.66 10.75 9.49 8.14 9.91 (12.8%) 3rd/[−1.7,−1.3) 10.73 13.21 9.80 11.15 9.29 9.49 9.08 7.74 9.91 9.60 (10.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.2,−1) 10.59 13.09 11.03 10.59 6.32 7.50 8.53 12.06 8.82 11.47 (7.3%) 4th/[−1.2,−0.92) 10.07 13.31 9.23 12.71 11.15 9.47 10.07 10.07 7.79 6.12 (9%) 4th/[−1.3,−1) 12.53 13.74 12.64 10.66 8.02 7.69 8.24 7.47 9.34 9.67 (9.9%) 5th/[−1,−0.68) 11.13 10.70 9.85 10.27 8.56 10.79 9.76 9.93 10.19 8.82 (12.5%) 5th/[−0.92,−0.61) 13.29 11.64 12.71 11.54 9.21 9.41 7.66 8.24 9.21 7.08 (11.1%) 5th/[−1,−0.67) 12.42 11.95 10.91 12.04 8.18 9.31 8.28 10.44 8.94 7.53 (11.5%) 6th/[−0.68,−0.44) 10.76 9.41 11.49 9.66 7.82 10.39 9.66 10.15 10.64 10.02 (8.8%) 6th/[−0.61,−0.33) 12.57 12.46 12.57 11.30 10.14 9.50 9.19 7.60 7.71 6.97 (10.2%) 6th/[−0.67,−0.37) 15.13 10.98 10.68 9.40 9.20 9.89 8.01 8.70 9.59 8.41 (10.9%) 7th/[−0.44,−0.15) 9.94 10.85 9.94 9.49 9.15 11.30 9.15 9.49 9.15 11.53 (9.5%) 7th/[−0.33,−0.07) 12.84 14.46 12.84 9.85 13.09 9.48 6.86 7.11 6.86 6.61 (8.6%) 7th/[−0.37,−0.08) 15.86 14.33 8.86 8.32 9.63 8.32 7.99 8.53 8.53 9.63 (9.9%) 8th/[−0.15,0.2) 10.09 11.36 11.46 8.41 11.88 8.20 9.04 10.52 8.41 10.62 (10.2%) 8th/[−0.07,0.32) 14.44 16.45 10.83 12.64 9.33 9.53 9.23 6.82 5.92 4.81 (10.7%) 8th/[−0.08,0.27) 15.19 12.94 13.05 10.57 10.12 9.11 7.87 5.74 7.87 7.54 (9.6%) 9th/[0.2,0.76) 10.81 8.11 11.09 11.46 9.32 9.60 11.28 10.62 7.92 9.79 (11.5%) 9th/[0.32,0.81) 13.23 13.55 13.12 13.23 8.60 8.82 8.17 8.17 6.88 6.24 (10%) 9th/[0.27,0.78) 18.05 11.17 10.74 13.00 7.84 5.37 8.81 7.30 6.23 11.49 (10.1%) 10th/[0.76,3] 5.70 9.28 8.86 10.13 9.07 11.18 7.70 9.49 10.86 17.72 (10.2%) 10th/[0.81,3] 11.53 11.83 12.74 10.01 8.59 9.30 7.18 7.99 7.58 13.25 (10.7%) 10th/[0.78,3] 9.40 10.50 10.70 11.50 10.30 7.80 8.40 10.30 9.00 12.10 (10.8%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  20. Mathematics Grade 6 2023, 2024 2025 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2022−2023 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,264) 2023−2024 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,156) 2024−2025 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 9,208) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Exceeding (1.6%) Exceeding (2.4%) Exceeding (2.7%) Meeting (24.2%) Meeting (27.7%) Meeting (27.4%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Partially Meeting (50.7%) Partially Meeting (52.1%) Partially Meeting (53%) Not Meeting (23.6%) Not Meeting (17.7%) Not Meeting (16.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−3.03,−2.95] 62.1 34.5 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 29 Lowest OSS: [−2.99,−2.92] 70.8 12.5 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Lowest OSS: [−2.98,−2.82] 42.2 22.2 35.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 45 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 2.1798 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 2.9 8.8 14.7 5.9 23.5 14.7 20.6 N = 34 Highest OSS: [2.405,2.964) 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 44.0 N = 25 Highest OSS: [ 2.3902 ] 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 5.1 0.0 8.5 6.8 3.4 27.1 16.9 30.5 N = 59 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−3.1,−2) 12.77 10.93 6.82 8.23 9.20 8.23 11.47 11.26 8.87 12.23 (10%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−1.9) 8.82 15.46 9.28 13.17 7.90 10.19 11.80 7.22 7.79 8.36 (9.5%) 100 1st/[−3.1,−1.8) 7.38 18.15 17.52 11.39 9.39 8.89 8.39 5.63 6.63 6.63 (8.7%) 100 2nd/[−2,−1.7) 10.23 7.91 8.99 12.56 7.75 11.32 8.22 7.91 10.23 14.88 (7%) 2nd/[−1.9,−1.5) 13.45 12.78 14.25 10.25 8.79 10.52 7.06 7.32 7.59 7.99 (8.2%) 2nd/[−1.8,−1.3) 13.97 17.82 13.29 10.50 8.86 9.83 7.13 6.26 6.17 6.17 (11.3%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−1.7,−1.3) 9.53 10.45 11.12 6.94 9.03 10.54 8.70 8.53 9.78 15.38 (12.9%) 3rd/[−1.5,−1.2) 14.58 13.43 13.89 9.18 9.76 8.38 9.07 6.89 4.82 9.99 (9.5%) 3rd/[−1.3,−1.1) 17.67 16.84 13.90 9.66 6.01 8.95 7.07 6.83 6.12 6.95 (9.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−1.3,−1) 7.72 10.81 9.26 8.31 6.89 8.55 8.31 9.14 13.18 17.81 (9.1%) 4th/[−1.2,−0.83) 18.05 14.95 13.04 7.75 7.66 7.66 7.57 7.75 7.29 8.30 (12%) 4th/[−1.1,−0.82) 18.22 13.57 11.86 11.37 6.97 9.78 6.85 6.60 6.72 8.07 (8.9%) 5th/[−1,−0.69) 10.86 8.48 9.62 8.38 7.24 10.24 9.31 11.69 11.17 13.03 (10.4%) 5th/[−0.83,−0.6) 21.46 12.30 9.54 9.91 6.52 7.90 7.90 6.90 7.78 9.79 (8.7%) 5th/[−0.82,−0.52) 21.24 13.39 12.32 9.02 7.27 6.60 6.30 7.76 8.15 7.95 (11.2%) 6th/[−0.69,−0.41) 9.30 8.39 8.84 7.37 6.80 7.60 12.93 12.13 11.34 15.31 (9.5%) 6th/[−0.6,−0.3) 19.52 12.21 10.44 8.14 7.83 8.25 8.77 9.60 8.46 6.78 (10.5%) 6th/[−0.52,−0.23) 17.77 10.15 11.07 8.12 8.63 9.14 10.46 8.32 9.34 7.01 (10.7%) 7th/[−0.41,−0.14) 8.47 8.00 8.59 7.40 7.76 9.55 10.14 13.25 12.41 14.44 (9%) 7th/[−0.3,0.07) 16.14 11.56 10.79 8.98 8.12 7.55 8.12 10.32 9.65 8.79 (11.4%) 7th/[−0.23,0.06) 15.72 11.57 8.08 8.73 8.95 9.28 10.15 8.73 8.95 9.83 (9.9%) 8th/[−0.14,0.28) 6.41 7.13 7.67 8.57 9.21 10.92 10.47 12.09 12.91 14.62 (12%) 8th/[0.07,0.37) 16.78 13.65 9.36 8.97 8.71 10.01 7.67 9.62 6.37 8.84 (8.4%) 8th/[0.06,0.37) 15.61 8.88 7.49 9.52 9.14 10.79 9.64 10.66 8.50 9.77 (8.6%) 9th/[0.28,0.77) 6.35 7.99 5.36 7.44 8.32 12.80 10.72 13.46 13.13 14.44 (9.9%) 9th/[0.37,0.87) 16.96 12.51 8.69 9.20 9.20 10.86 8.79 9.62 6.83 7.34 (10.6%) 9th/[0.37,0.86) 11.63 9.29 9.18 9.80 8.57 11.63 9.80 10.82 8.88 10.41 (10.6%) 10th/[0.77,3.2] 6.86 6.96 11.18 9.39 10.34 11.18 13.50 7.91 10.65 12.03 (10.2%) 10th/[0.87,3.2] 16.67 11.60 11.60 9.75 8.58 8.48 10.23 6.82 8.28 7.99 (11.2%) 10th/[0.86,3.2] 9.06 10.86 9.66 10.16 9.36 10.56 10.86 8.76 10.06 10.66 (10.9%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  21. Summary • Cohort-referenced SGPs showed excellent fit and as such are suitable for use as part of accountability system calculations. • Baseline-referenced SGPs showed un-even results with some grade/content area pairs showing rates of learning above pre-pandemic levels and others showing rates of learning below pre-pandemic levels. • Extending these comparisons to prior years shows uneven types of changes undermining several education related mechanisms that could potentially explain the observed changes. • Continued problems with Equating/linking results over time can not be ruled out at this time as a potential explanation. Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 21
  22. Questions for TAC • Can you recommend additional analyses that can be used to try and disentangle: • Pandemic ripple effects (if they exist)? • Scale drift (if it exists)? • Actual changes in student growth over time (if they exist)? • Assuming baseline SGPs are calculated going forward, should RI considered re- establishing baseline norms (moving away from pre-pandemic norms). • One way to examine “form effects” would be to utilize MA data and examine cohort referenced growth by form? Is this something you’d recommend and that MA would be interested in pursuing? Pandemic Related Academic Impact in Rhode Island 22
  23. Questions