PARCC 2016 SGP OVERVIEW
Damian W Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden
National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment
Dover, NH September 14th, 2016
BACKGROUND
• 2016 Marked the 2nd year of PARCC test administration
allowing for the calculation of student growth.
• The growth model designated to be used for calculation was
student growth percentiles (SGP).
• The Center for Assessment was contracted to perform SGP
analyses for 2016.
• Preparation for SGP analyses began in May, 2016 leading up to
nal SGP analyses being conducted in mid-July 2016
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BACKGROUND
• Based upon preliminary meetings between Pearson and
PARCC state leads, the following analytic assumptions were
determined.
• SGPs are calculated using theta values at both the consortium and state level.
• SGPs are calculated for all grade/content area progressions norm groups with
at least 1,000 students.
• SGPs are calculated for:
• Spring 2015 to Spring 2016
• Fall 2015 to Spring 2016.
BACKGROUND
• States participating in 2016 PARCC SGP analyses: Colorado, District of
Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, and
Rhode Island.
• A total of 2,552,132 unique students received SGPs for at least 1 grade/
content area in Spring 2016
• A total of 15,642 unique students received SGPs for at least 1 grade/content
area in Fall 2015.
• SGPs are calculated based upon test results for students taking the same tests
at the same time.
• Grade level ELA tests simpler to model that test taking patterns associated with Grade level
Mathematics combined with Algebra I, II, Geometry, Integrated Math I, II, and III.
• Preliminary norm groups established in June and nalized when nal data arrived in July.
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BACKGROUND
• ELA Norm Groups:
• Fall 2015 to Spring 2016:
• No SGP analyses
• Spring 2015 to Spring 2016:
• Grade 3 to 4, 4 to 5, 5 to 6, 6 to 7, 7 to 8, 8 to 9, 9 to 10, and 10 to 11
• Mathematics Norm Groups:
• Fall 2015 to Spring 2016:
• Algebra I to Geometry, Geometry to Algebra II
• Spring 2015 to Spring 2016:
• Grade 3 to 4, 4 to 5, 5 to 6, 6 to 7, 7 to 8
• Grade 6 to Algebra I, Grade 7 to Algebra 1, Grade 8 to Algebra I, Geometry to Algebra I, Integrated Math I to
Algebra I, Integrated Math II to Algebra I, Integrated Math III to Algebra I
• Grade 6 to Geometry, Grade 7 to Geometry, Grade 8 to Geometry, Algebra I to Geometry, Integrated Math 1
to Geometry, Integrated Math II to Geometry, Integrated Math III to Geometry
• Grade 7 to Algebra II, Grade 8 to Algebra II, Geometry to Algebra II, Algebra I to Algebra II, Integrated Math 1 to
Algebra II, Integrated Math II to Algebra II, Integrated Math III to Algebra II
• Grade 6 to Integrated Math I, Grade 7 to Integrated Math I, Grade 8 to Integrated Math I, Algebra I to Integrated
Math I, Geometry to Integrated Math I, Algebra II to Integrated Math I
• Grade 7 to Integrated Math II, Grade 8 to Integrated Math II, Integrated Math I to Integrated Math II
• Grade 7 to Integrated Math III, Grade 8 to Integrated Math III, Integrated Math II to Integrated Math III, Integrated
Math I to Integrated Math III
BACKGROUND
• SGPs are uniformly distributed and uncorrelated with prior achievement: All
students, regardless of starting point can demonstrate high/low growth.
• Median SGP for consortium and state norm groups are 50.
• Tests of uniformity and the existence of ceiling effects are performed for each
SGP norm-group analysis run.
• Scaled Score CSEMs provided by Pearson were incorporated for calculation of
SGP SEMs.
• For testing purposes, scale score based SGPs, student growth projections
(adequate growth percentiles) and SIMEX adjusted SGPs were calculated.
RESULTS
• All analyses successfully completed mid July.
• All state and consortium level analyses required approximately 24 hours to
complete.
• Goodness of t results were generally quite good (i.e., uniform distribution of
SGPs by prior achievement) with no indications of ceiling/ oor effects.
• Consortium-based median SGPs (by state, grade and content area) ranged
from 40 to 60.
• In some cases SGPs could be calculated at the consortium level but not the
state level due to insuf cient numbers of students in the state norm group.
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RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (MATHEMATICS)
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 4 (N = 422,426) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 5 (N = 417,351) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 6 (N = 414,501)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS)
Level 5 (6.6%) Level 5 (3.2%) Level 5 (4.4%)
Level 4 Level 4
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (32.3%)
Level 3 (29.2%) Level 3 (30.1%)
Level 3 (27.7%)
Level 2 (21.5%) Level 2 (26.4%) Level 2 (26.4%)
Level 1 (12%) Level 1 (11.5%) Level 1 (11%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to to
to
to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 858 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 92.7 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1470 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1202
Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 83.1 N = 254 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 5.8 12.0 71.9 N = 416 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 8.3 81.1 N = 302
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,696) 9.48 10.26 9.85 9.89 10.29 9.69 10.02 10.10 9.95 10.47 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,697) 9.81 9.78 9.89 10.16 10.07 10.05 9.76 10.07 10.10 10.31 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,697) 9.61 10.02 10.21 9.39 10.10 10.64 9.89 9.95 9.80 10.40 (9.3%) 100
2nd/[696,710) 9.62 9.76 10.08 10.25 9.35 10.44 9.88 10.12 9.85 10.66 (9.4%) 2nd/[697,709) 9.44 10.47 9.63 10.41 9.60 9.83 10.51 10.02 9.66 10.43 (10%) 2nd/[697,709) 9.67 9.83 9.79 10.52 10.03 9.60 10.18 9.62 10.25 10.53 (9.8%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[710,721) 9.32 10.04 9.94 10.17 10.48 9.93 9.66 9.59 10.53 10.34 (10.5%) 3rd/[709,718) 9.50 9.42 10.71 9.10 10.73 10.17 9.12 10.11 10.26 10.88 (9.7%) 3rd/[709,718) 9.49 10.05 10.15 9.72 10.19 10.04 9.58 10.26 9.95 10.58 (9.8%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[721,730) 9.70 10.29 9.66 9.90 10.48 9.78 10.08 10.36 9.44 10.32 (9.4%) 4th/[718,726) 9.62 10.04 9.83 10.04 9.66 9.95 10.90 9.94 9.59 10.43 (9.7%) 4th/[718,727) 9.34 9.51 10.59 10.18 9.97 9.79 9.85 10.27 9.99 10.49 (11%)
5th/[730,739) 9.56 9.91 10.49 9.56 9.60 10.14 10.27 9.60 10.22 10.65 (10%) 5th/[726,735) 9.06 10.77 9.44 10.51 10.17 9.66 10.07 9.57 10.53 10.23 (10.9%) 5th/[727,735) 9.97 10.63 8.77 10.35 10.11 10.45 9.98 9.85 9.51 10.39 (10%)
6th/[739,748) 9.37 10.73 8.99 10.92 9.85 9.81 9.91 9.93 10.25 10.22 (10.1%) 6th/[735,743) 10.23 9.06 10.79 9.78 10.36 9.94 9.71 9.86 10.18 10.10 (9.4%) 6th/[735,743) 9.41 10.28 10.50 10.52 9.25 9.58 9.99 10.03 10.29 10.15 (9.7%)
7th/[748,758) 9.44 9.49 10.88 9.09 10.20 10.06 9.96 10.59 9.67 10.62 (10.6%) 7th/[743,752) 9.27 10.35 9.78 9.78 9.65 10.10 10.05 10.57 9.86 10.58 (9.8%) 7th/[743,752) 9.52 9.53 9.94 9.87 10.19 10.04 10.35 10.18 10.04 10.34 (10.1%)
8th/[758,769) 9.82 10.08 9.50 10.22 10.36 10.17 9.72 9.99 9.79 10.35 (10.3%) 8th/[752,763) 9.65 10.11 9.86 10.34 9.47 10.43 10.19 9.53 9.60 10.81 (10.2%) 8th/[752,762) 9.57 9.89 10.36 10.08 9.29 10.57 9.60 9.81 9.84 10.98 (9.6%)
9th/[769,783) 9.48 10.19 10.48 10.09 9.62 9.70 10.16 9.81 10.02 10.44 (10.1%) 9th/[763,778) 9.42 9.76 10.27 9.98 10.36 9.79 9.57 10.11 10.23 10.52 (10.4%) 9th/[762,776) 9.26 10.40 9.80 9.90 10.57 9.40 10.13 10.05 9.73 10.76 (10.1%)
10th/[783,850] 9.42 9.88 10.02 9.89 10.05 10.10 9.94 10.04 10.16 10.50 (10%) 10th/[778,850] 9.56 10.20 9.76 9.98 10.00 9.99 10.21 10.10 10.04 10.18 (10.2%) 10th/[776,850] 9.69 9.81 10.00 10.03 10.05 10.21 10.01 10.11 10.06 10.03 (10.6%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 7 (N = 391,096) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 8 (N = 312,787)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS)
Level 5 (3.3%) Level 5 (2%)
Level 4 (20%)
Level 4 (27.6%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 3 (35.3%)
Level 3 (30.5%)
Level 2 (27.1%) Level 2 (31.3%)
Level 1 (11.5%) Level 1 (11.4%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 98.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 2244 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 77.0 22.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 5720
Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 9.3 74.4 N = 86 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.4 9.9 14.1 18.5 11.0 37.9 N = 626
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 to
1st/[650,697) 9.91 10.02 9.87 10.32 9.68 10.40 9.59 9.69 9.97 10.55 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,698) 10.90 8.50 10.63 9.98 9.81 10.39 9.52 9.96 10.01 10.31 (9.7%) 100
2nd/[697,709) 9.25 9.95 10.27 9.83 10.30 9.89 10.25 9.84 9.97 10.44 (10.2%) 2nd/[698,708) 9.92 9.79 10.00 9.57 10.59 9.90 9.86 10.10 9.62 10.66 (9.6%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[709,718) 9.53 10.06 9.78 9.90 10.29 9.69 9.77 10.58 10.01 10.39 (10%) 3rd/[708,716) 8.99 10.74 9.31 9.88 9.96 10.10 9.99 10.18 10.30 10.54 (9.6%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[718,726) 9.44 10.41 10.12 9.90 9.17 10.60 10.69 9.32 9.76 10.60 (9.8%) 4th/[716,723) 9.00 9.76 10.59 10.43 9.62 9.55 10.56 10.12 9.97 10.40 (10.7%)
5th/[726,734) 9.79 9.88 9.92 10.57 10.42 9.19 9.75 10.19 10.03 10.25 (10.2%) 5th/[723,729) 10.28 10.03 9.92 9.52 10.28 10.06 9.77 9.36 10.21 10.56 (8.9%)
6th/[734,742) 9.18 10.35 10.28 9.97 9.27 10.11 10.09 10.45 9.92 10.37 (9.9%) 6th/[729,736) 9.67 9.71 10.17 9.75 10.41 9.84 10.15 10.18 9.78 10.35 (10.7%)
7th/[742,750) 9.46 9.78 9.53 10.41 9.97 10.81 9.93 9.68 9.88 10.55 (9.3%) 7th/[736,743) 9.35 10.21 9.93 10.18 9.99 10.04 9.69 10.35 9.60 10.64 (10.2%)
8th/[750,760) 9.48 10.62 9.82 9.29 10.42 9.39 10.13 10.04 10.33 10.49 (10.4%) 8th/[743,751) 9.38 10.01 10.43 9.63 9.88 10.45 9.70 9.90 10.10 10.52 (9.8%)
9th/[760,773) 10.01 9.27 10.36 10.00 10.30 9.96 10.25 9.42 9.75 10.69 (10.3%) 9th/[751,763) 9.79 9.88 9.70 10.21 9.63 10.00 10.19 9.87 10.30 10.43 (10.4%)
10th/[773,850] 9.21 10.24 9.96 10.19 10.03 9.82 10.09 10.34 10.00 10.13 (10.2%) 10th/[763,850] 9.43 10.16 9.96 10.01 10.32 9.99 10.18 9.79 9.78 10.39 (10.4%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ALGEBRA I)
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,193) 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 12,884)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Geometry SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS)
Level 5 (1.1%)
Level 4 (7.8%)
Level 3 Level 5 (32.8%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 2 (48.4%)
Level 4 (57.2%)
Level 1 (25.6%)
Level 3 (8.6%)
Level 1
Level 2 (1.3%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99
1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [650,656) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 21
Lowest OSS: [650,685) 84.0 12.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [797,815) 0.0 3.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 11.1 3.7 14.8 18.5 11.1 7.4 N = 27
[815,850] 3.4 0.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 10.3 6.9 17.2 13.8 13.8 13.8 10.3 N = 29 Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 18.7 20.1 54.5 N = 134
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,687) 11.86 8.47 10.17 9.32 9.32 10.17 11.02 11.02 9.32 9.32 (9.9%) 100 1st/[650,749) 9.94 10.36 10.19 9.61 10.36 9.44 10.02 10.36 10.27 9.44 (9.4%) 100
2nd/[687,695) 7.44 13.22 11.57 12.40 9.09 9.09 9.09 5.79 11.57 10.74 (10.1%) 2nd/[749,760) 10.14 9.75 9.44 10.37 9.20 10.92 9.91 9.67 10.06 10.53 (10%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[695,702) 11.93 9.17 6.42 9.17 11.93 14.68 8.26 8.26 10.09 10.09 (9.1%) 3rd/[760,767) 8.26 9.36 11.23 8.85 11.06 11.06 8.94 10.13 8.94 12.17 (9.1%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[702,707) 7.32 8.94 7.32 10.57 12.20 8.94 8.13 16.26 6.50 13.82 (10.3%) 4th/[767,773) 8.62 10.60 10.13 11.63 8.62 8.31 11.00 8.78 11.87 10.44 (9.8%)
5th/[707,711) 8.93 8.93 14.29 8.93 8.93 6.25 12.50 10.71 13.39 7.14 (9.4%) 5th/[773,779) 10.32 9.64 9.44 9.98 8.77 9.24 10.25 9.71 10.59 12.07 (11.5%)
6th/[711,716) 13.22 9.09 9.92 9.92 7.44 9.92 14.05 7.44 11.57 7.44 (10.1%) 6th/[779,784) 8.21 11.55 9.56 9.72 12.75 10.60 11.08 8.69 8.76 9.08 (9.7%)
7th/[716,722) 7.09 15.75 12.60 7.87 7.87 14.17 6.30 10.24 7.87 10.24 (10.6%) 7th/[784,789) 11.86 8.40 11.29 8.15 9.72 11.37 8.32 12.93 9.31 8.65 (9.4%)
8th/[722,731) 9.17 5.00 7.50 12.50 12.50 9.17 9.17 10.83 10.83 13.33 (10.1%) 8th/[789,795) 9.73 10.13 10.05 10.20 9.89 9.65 9.97 10.60 10.68 9.11 (9.9%)
9th/[731,747) 10.74 11.57 11.57 9.92 7.44 9.09 9.92 9.09 11.57 9.09 (10.1%) 9th/[795,804) 9.54 9.83 8.59 11.07 11.36 10.12 10.27 10.05 8.89 10.27 (10.7%)
10th/[747,813] 10.74 9.92 9.92 9.09 11.57 9.92 10.74 10.74 7.44 9.92 (10.1%) 10th/[804,850] 8.62 10.46 10.98 9.80 8.47 9.58 9.95 9.58 10.83 11.72 (10.5%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 69,317) 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 172,218)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS)
Level 5 (0.3%)
Level 5 (7.3%)
Level 4 (17.7%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (56%) Level 3 (27.6%)
Level 2 (29.8%)
Level 3 (27.1%)
Level 1 (24.6%)
Level 2 (8.1%)
Level 1 (1.5%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range
Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1156
Extremes (Range)
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 57
Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [821,827) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 16.0 8.0 16.0 56.0 N = 25
Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 9.6 17.4 15.1 45.9 N = 218 [827,850] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 7.7 15.4 73.1 N = 26
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,725) 9.44 10.16 10.12 10.09 10.01 9.77 9.98 10.01 10.04 10.39 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,682) 9.77 9.71 10.85 9.82 9.74 9.47 9.78 10.23 10.12 10.52 (9.5%) 100
2nd/[725,737) 9.62 10.18 9.48 10.08 9.59 10.27 10.07 10.08 9.90 10.71 (9.8%) 2nd/[682,695) 9.27 10.44 9.88 9.85 10.37 10.46 9.99 9.92 9.68 10.14 (10.1%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[737,745) 9.65 10.23 9.99 10.10 9.82 9.93 10.87 9.99 9.91 9.52 (9.8%) 3rd/[695,704) 9.73 9.22 10.18 10.41 9.19 10.44 9.91 10.08 10.31 10.52 (8.7%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[745,751) 9.54 9.56 10.77 10.29 10.49 9.89 9.46 9.76 10.00 10.23 (9.4%) 4th/[704,713) 9.69 10.26 9.52 10.34 9.90 9.70 10.47 9.60 9.88 10.65 (11.1%)
5th/[751,757) 9.19 10.07 9.72 9.66 9.69 10.79 9.20 10.17 10.19 11.32 (10.6%) 5th/[713,721) 9.24 10.08 10.17 9.86 10.59 9.87 9.50 10.54 9.71 10.44 (9.7%)
6th/[757,762) 9.65 9.66 9.33 9.95 10.66 10.03 9.15 9.72 10.57 11.28 (9.6%) 6th/[721,729) 9.63 10.25 9.63 10.30 9.87 10.18 10.08 10.02 10.06 9.98 (10.1%)
7th/[762,768) 9.08 10.48 10.28 10.07 9.51 9.80 10.01 10.24 9.74 10.78 (10.7%) 7th/[729,737) 9.68 9.75 10.59 9.45 10.12 10.24 9.56 9.59 10.23 10.80 (9.3%)
8th/[768,774) 10.10 10.10 10.19 9.94 9.27 10.13 9.73 10.07 10.75 9.72 (9.8%) 8th/[737,748) 9.46 10.20 9.88 10.22 9.51 9.68 10.31 10.29 9.90 10.56 (11.3%)
9th/[774,782) 9.95 9.79 10.09 10.16 9.95 10.52 10.65 9.95 9.59 9.36 (10%) 9th/[748,760) 9.62 9.57 9.82 10.02 10.09 10.23 10.45 10.03 9.69 10.48 (9.8%)
10th/[782,850] 9.15 9.96 10.16 9.89 10.58 9.76 9.99 10.11 9.60 10.80 (10.7%) 10th/[760,847] 9.41 10.39 10.24 9.87 10.06 9.78 9.98 9.72 10.19 10.36 (10.3%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (GEOMETRY)
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 104,364) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 2,978) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,496)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra II SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS)
Level 5 (2.5%) Level 5 (2.2%)
Level 4 (27%) Level 5 (28.8%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (32.4%)
Level 3 (18.7%)
Level 3 (26.1%)
Level 2 (21.3%) Level 4 (61.2%)
Level 2 (26.3%)
Level 1 (30.8%)
Level 1 (12.7%) Level 3 (8.8%)
Level 1
Level 2 (1.1%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to to to
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [650,671) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 18 Lowest OSS: [675,717) 45.8 12.5 16.7 8.3 12.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 264
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [825,830) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.2 0.0 58.8 N = 17
Highest OSS: [805,811) 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 5.6 22.2 22.2 11.1 11.1 16.7 N = 18 Highest OSS: [798,806) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N = 25
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,695) 9.54 10.51 9.84 9.89 9.64 9.95 9.92 10.27 9.94 10.52 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,672) 9.59 9.93 8.90 11.30 8.90 11.99 7.88 10.27 9.59 11.64 (9.8%) 100 1st/[689,750) 11.33 11.33 9.33 10.67 9.33 9.33 8.67 11.33 9.33 9.33 (10%) 100
2nd/[695,707) 9.66 9.58 10.03 10.27 10.21 9.84 10.48 9.72 9.84 10.37 (10.2%) 2nd/[672,686) 10.88 10.88 10.54 9.18 9.86 8.50 12.24 10.88 9.86 7.14 (9.9%) 2nd/[750,761) 8.72 10.07 8.72 9.40 10.74 8.72 14.09 6.71 11.41 11.41 (10%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[707,717) 9.56 10.08 9.99 10.05 9.55 10.48 10.13 9.70 10.19 10.27 (10.2%) 3rd/[686,699) 9.12 8.79 9.45 9.77 10.75 11.07 9.45 11.07 8.47 12.05 (10.3%) 3rd/[761,766) 11.61 9.82 12.50 12.50 5.36 14.29 8.93 8.04 9.82 7.14 (7.5%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[717,725) 9.75 10.20 9.81 9.84 10.34 9.21 9.50 10.48 10.13 10.74 (9%) 4th/[699,711) 9.73 11.07 9.73 10.74 9.40 9.06 9.73 8.39 10.07 12.08 (10%) 4th/[766,771) 7.10 10.06 8.28 9.47 12.43 8.88 12.43 10.65 11.24 9.47 (11.3%)
5th/[725,735) 9.61 9.52 10.25 10.37 10.14 10.66 9.54 9.98 9.59 10.35 (10.9%) 5th/[711,722) 9.69 10.73 10.03 9.34 10.38 10.38 9.00 11.07 11.07 8.30 (9.7%) 5th/[771,776) 12.20 10.37 11.59 9.15 9.76 9.15 11.59 9.15 6.71 10.37 (11%)
6th/[735,744) 9.58 9.97 9.77 10.45 9.30 9.90 10.12 9.86 10.28 10.77 (9.5%) 6th/[722,735) 9.31 7.59 11.38 10.00 9.31 10.69 11.38 10.69 8.28 11.38 (9.7%) 6th/[776,780) 10.22 8.76 8.76 10.95 11.68 11.68 8.03 8.76 10.95 10.22 (9.2%)
7th/[744,755) 9.19 10.25 9.97 9.85 10.36 9.74 10.17 10.50 9.65 10.32 (10.4%) 7th/[735,748) 10.00 13.10 7.59 10.34 8.62 9.31 8.97 8.62 12.76 10.69 (9.7%) 7th/[780,785) 8.48 10.91 10.91 9.09 8.48 10.30 6.06 12.73 9.70 13.33 (11%)
8th/[755,767) 9.82 10.24 10.27 9.81 9.70 10.34 10.27 9.05 10.32 10.17 (9.9%) 8th/[748,761) 8.25 8.91 11.88 8.91 12.87 10.23 9.57 12.21 7.92 9.24 (10.2%) 8th/[785,790) 10.32 7.94 7.94 9.52 9.52 7.94 11.11 12.70 13.49 9.52 (8.4%)
9th/[767,783) 9.33 10.09 9.76 10.03 10.14 9.92 9.65 10.43 10.08 10.57 (10.4%) 9th/[761,779) 10.44 11.39 10.76 9.18 9.49 8.54 11.39 8.54 10.76 9.49 (10.6%) 9th/[790,798) 9.94 10.53 11.70 9.94 11.11 8.19 9.36 8.77 9.94 10.53 (11.4%)
10th/[783,850] 9.65 9.74 10.05 10.08 10.02 10.08 10.15 9.69 9.92 10.62 (10.1%) 10th/[779,849] 9.36 9.36 9.70 10.70 9.70 10.70 9.03 10.37 9.70 11.37 (10%) 10th/[798,850] 9.15 9.80 10.46 10.46 9.15 11.76 11.76 9.15 7.84 10.46 (10.2%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 5,934) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,101)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I SS)
Level 5 (6.5%) Level 5 (3.7%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (35.2%)
Level 4 (54.2%)
Level 3 (25.7%)
Level 3 (23.2%)
Level 2 (28.3%)
Level 2 (11.1%)
Level 1 (4.9%) Level 1 (7%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [650,675) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Lowest OSS: [650,680) 84.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [793,797) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 8.3 12.5 16.7 50.0 N = 24 Highest OSS: [774,781) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 16.7 12.5 12.5 16.7 4.2 12.5 4.2 16.7 N = 24
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,714) 9.45 10.48 9.97 9.62 10.48 10.48 10.65 9.79 9.97 9.11 (9.8%) 100 1st/[650,700) 12.99 9.09 9.09 11.69 7.79 9.09 12.99 9.09 10.39 7.79 (7%) 100
2nd/[714,730) 10.41 9.39 10.07 10.58 10.24 9.39 8.19 10.24 10.07 11.43 (9.9%) 2nd/[700,711) 9.09 14.77 11.36 3.41 14.77 9.09 3.41 12.50 10.23 11.36 (8%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[730,742) 9.50 10.88 9.15 9.67 11.23 8.12 11.05 9.15 10.71 10.54 (9.8%) 3rd/[711,724) 8.59 8.59 7.98 11.04 9.20 14.72 12.27 8.59 8.59 10.43 (14.8%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[742,750) 9.89 8.29 10.69 9.41 9.57 11.96 9.57 10.37 10.69 9.57 (10.6%) 4th/[724,731) 12.00 9.00 15.00 6.00 7.00 11.00 5.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 (9.1%)
5th/[750,759) 6.77 11.84 12.35 11.00 9.64 8.29 11.00 11.00 7.28 10.83 (10%) 5th/[731,738) 13.48 19.10 8.99 10.11 14.61 5.62 6.74 5.62 8.99 6.74 (8.1%)
6th/[759,766) 10.55 10.91 8.36 9.09 9.27 11.45 9.64 9.45 10.73 10.55 (9.3%) 6th/[738,747) 8.85 6.19 9.73 13.27 12.39 12.39 7.96 11.50 8.85 8.85 (10.3%)
7th/[766,774) 10.97 9.68 8.39 10.16 11.13 9.84 9.03 8.39 10.97 11.45 (10.4%) 7th/[747,758) 7.14 9.52 10.32 6.35 6.35 10.32 13.49 11.11 11.11 14.29 (11.4%)
8th/[774,782) 9.86 10.04 10.39 8.78 8.42 9.50 9.86 12.37 11.11 9.68 (9.4%) 8th/[758,769) 9.52 9.52 10.48 12.38 11.43 9.52 8.57 8.57 10.48 9.52 (9.5%)
9th/[782,795) 9.20 9.67 7.64 12.32 11.54 10.45 10.30 8.89 9.36 10.61 (10.8%) 9th/[769,785) 11.57 9.92 9.09 9.92 10.74 9.92 9.09 9.09 9.92 10.74 (11%)
10th/[795,850] 9.67 9.83 12.00 9.00 9.33 9.67 10.33 10.50 9.67 10.00 (10.1%) 10th/[785,841] 9.24 10.92 12.61 8.40 9.24 10.08 10.92 10.92 9.24 8.40 (10.8%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ALGEBRA II)
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 11,698) 2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 67,945) 2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 2,913)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Geometry) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics)
Level 5 (6.3%) Level 5 (2.3%)
Level 4 (19.4%) Level 5 (21.5%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (44.9%)
Level 3 (31.9%)
Level 4 (66.8%)
Level 3 (22.3%)
Level 2 (35.6%)
Level 2 (17.4%)
Level 3 (9%)
Level 1 (9.1%) Level 1 (10.7%)
Level 2
Level 1 (1.9%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [−15,−3.189) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Lowest OSS: [−15,−4.665) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 26 Lowest OSS: [−1.988,−1.293) 59.3 11.1 25.9 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 27
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [3.279,3.465) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 13.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 N = 23 Highest OSS: [3.628,3.868) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 10.7 10.7 21.4 46.4 N = 28 Highest OSS: [2.852,3.107) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 7.4 3.7 18.5 22.2 14.8 29.6 N = 27
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[−10,−1.059) 9.49 10.09 10.34 10.26 9.40 9.57 10.17 10.60 10.17 9.91 (10%) 100 1st/[−10,−1.283) 9.43 9.37 9.68 9.51 10.46 10.10 10.45 10.05 10.02 10.92 (10%) 100 1st/[−2.56,0.548) 10.27 9.25 10.62 9.25 10.96 10.96 10.27 9.59 10.27 8.56 (10%) 100
2nd/[−1.059,−0.5674) 10.02 10.62 9.16 9.59 11.73 10.27 9.85 8.82 8.90 11.04 (10%) 2nd/[−1.283,−0.9115) 9.50 10.58 10.50 10.12 9.63 10.21 9.48 9.88 9.90 10.21 (10%) 2nd/[0.548,0.969) 9.66 10.69 11.72 10.69 9.31 8.28 8.62 11.38 8.28 11.38 (10%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[−0.5674,−0.1289) 9.50 9.15 10.09 9.92 8.90 9.92 9.92 11.12 10.86 10.61 (10%) 3rd/[−0.9115,−0.6613) 10.23 10.76 9.25 10.67 10.12 9.53 9.83 10.01 9.65 9.95 (10%) 3rd/[0.969,1.23) 10.34 8.28 8.28 10.00 8.28 11.03 10.34 10.00 14.48 8.97 (10%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[−0.1289,0.2367) 9.13 9.81 11.01 9.56 8.96 11.09 10.49 9.13 10.75 10.07 (10%) 4th/[−0.6613,−0.4133) 9.01 9.95 10.29 10.01 10.02 10.41 9.97 9.54 10.27 10.52 (10%) 4th/[1.23,1.45) 7.90 10.65 9.28 11.00 8.25 7.90 12.37 8.25 11.68 12.71 (10%)
5th/[0.2367,0.583) 8.90 10.52 9.67 10.18 11.38 9.92 9.58 10.09 8.81 10.95 (10%) 5th/[−0.4133,−0.1657) 9.27 9.30 10.13 9.37 9.96 9.81 10.16 10.75 10.24 11.02 (10%) 5th/[1.45,1.63) 8.53 11.26 8.87 7.17 11.95 13.65 9.90 10.24 5.46 12.97 (10.1%)
6th/[0.583,0.8853) 10.53 9.76 9.33 11.30 9.42 9.33 9.93 10.19 9.93 10.27 (10%) 6th/[−0.1657,0.1018) 9.53 9.66 9.92 10.20 9.67 10.12 10.38 9.85 10.12 10.56 (10%) 6th/[1.63,1.81) 11.00 12.03 10.65 11.34 11.34 9.28 7.22 9.28 9.28 8.59 (10%)
7th/[0.8853,1.214) 9.05 10.33 10.42 9.05 9.56 9.22 9.14 10.42 12.04 10.76 (10%) 7th/[0.1018,0.4292) 9.57 10.37 10.28 10.06 10.50 9.35 10.06 10.10 9.72 9.99 (10%) 7th/[1.81,1.99) 10.96 8.90 10.62 8.56 10.62 11.30 8.56 10.96 9.25 10.27 (10%)
8th/[1.214,1.577) 9.74 10.00 10.43 8.97 10.00 10.34 11.28 9.91 9.23 10.09 (10%) 8th/[0.4292,0.8082) 9.31 10.27 9.89 10.14 9.66 10.83 9.31 9.81 9.97 10.81 (10%) 8th/[1.99,2.22) 9.31 10.34 8.97 12.07 11.03 8.28 11.03 10.34 11.38 7.24 (10%)
9th/[1.577,2.085) 9.49 9.23 8.89 10.09 11.71 10.43 10.51 10.00 8.29 11.37 (10%) 9th/[0.8082,1.335) 9.67 9.74 9.77 9.88 9.89 9.66 10.30 10.13 10.35 10.61 (10%) 9th/[2.22,2.55) 9.62 7.56 12.37 9.62 8.59 8.59 11.00 11.68 8.59 12.37 (10%)
10th/[2.085,6.686] 9.65 10.42 10.85 10.76 8.97 9.99 9.14 9.74 10.93 9.56 (10%) 10th/[1.335,5.135] 9.55 10.05 10.27 10.03 10.08 10.03 10.02 9.87 9.77 10.34 (10%) 10th/[2.55,4.57] 8.87 10.58 9.22 9.56 10.24 10.92 10.24 8.53 11.26 10.58 (10.1%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ELA)
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 4 (N = 418,864) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 5 (N = 415,473) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 6 (N = 413,032) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 7 (N = 406,161)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS)
Level 5 (3.9%)
Level 5 (8.6%) Level 5 (3.9%) Level 5 (5.9%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (35.2%) Level 4 (38.7%) Level 4 (34.4%)
Level 4 (34.7%)
Level 3 (23.4%)
Level 3 (28.2%) Level 3 (28%) Level 3 (30%)
Level 2 (19.5%)
Level 2 (18.2%) Level 2 (19.3%) Level 2 (19.4%)
Level 1 (18.1%)
Level 1 (10.4%) Level 1 (10%) Level 1 (10.2%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
to to
to
to
to
to to
to
to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1346 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 617 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 516 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1733
Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 70.2 N = 393 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 84 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 92.9 N = 197 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 15.3 20.1 60.4 N = 1151
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,685) 9.54 10.02 10.28 10.00 10.32 9.59 10.07 9.88 9.93 10.37 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,699) 9.54 10.21 10.13 9.89 10.14 9.77 10.06 9.94 9.91 10.41 (9.8%) 100 1st/[650,700) 9.75 10.16 10.10 10.14 9.92 9.94 9.73 10.01 9.90 10.36 (10%) 100 1st/[650,699) 9.58 10.14 10.15 10.18 9.95 9.59 9.95 9.96 10.06 10.44 (9.7%) 100
2nd/[685,702) 9.94 9.99 9.99 9.79 9.88 9.82 9.93 10.11 10.08 10.47 (9.7%) 2nd/[699,715) 9.54 9.65 9.90 10.12 10.22 10.13 10.01 9.93 9.94 10.56 (9.9%) 2nd/[700,714) 9.32 9.86 10.20 9.85 9.89 10.10 10.33 9.78 10.11 10.55 (9.6%) 2nd/[699,714) 9.54 9.89 9.65 9.60 10.17 10.57 10.50 9.65 9.86 10.55 (9.7%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[702,716) 9.11 10.14 9.68 10.30 9.92 10.27 10.20 9.93 9.83 10.64 (10.5%) 3rd/[715,726) 9.48 10.19 10.11 9.87 9.82 9.68 10.11 9.99 10.35 10.41 (10%) 3rd/[714,725) 9.27 10.09 9.53 9.96 10.35 10.09 10.00 10.15 10.00 10.57 (9.7%) 3rd/[714,725) 9.49 10.10 9.93 10.08 10.36 9.44 9.77 10.48 10.05 10.29 (10.2%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[716,728) 9.52 9.86 10.11 10.06 10.33 9.93 9.63 9.94 10.25 10.38 (10.2%) 4th/[726,735) 9.87 9.86 10.10 9.87 9.83 10.01 10.32 9.93 9.93 10.28 (9.5%) 4th/[725,735) 9.58 9.85 10.12 10.30 9.55 10.02 9.85 10.34 9.83 10.55 (10.4%) 4th/[725,734) 9.53 10.10 10.01 9.99 9.85 9.92 10.14 9.33 10.29 10.83 (10.3%)
5th/[728,738) 9.82 10.04 9.99 9.80 10.09 9.97 10.00 9.87 9.81 10.60 (9.5%) 5th/[735,744) 9.28 9.98 9.78 10.35 10.62 9.85 9.55 10.01 9.91 10.67 (10.6%) 5th/[735,743) 9.72 10.09 10.19 9.78 10.37 9.69 10.13 9.80 9.90 10.32 (9.2%) 5th/[734,742) 9.57 10.05 10.37 10.02 9.20 10.91 10.04 10.14 9.38 10.33 (9.7%)
6th/[738,749) 9.28 10.39 9.84 9.93 9.74 10.07 9.84 10.44 10.17 10.32 (10.4%) 6th/[744,752) 9.34 10.34 9.73 10.41 9.66 9.71 10.11 9.90 10.07 10.73 (9.3%) 6th/[743,752) 9.68 10.15 10.35 9.82 10.19 9.64 9.89 10.02 10.03 10.23 (10.7%) 6th/[742,750) 9.57 9.70 9.66 10.23 10.74 8.85 10.22 10.69 10.28 10.06 (10%)
7th/[749,759) 9.58 9.50 10.21 10.11 10.16 10.32 9.91 9.79 9.90 10.52 (9.1%) 7th/[752,761) 9.72 9.73 10.31 9.89 10.00 10.05 9.91 10.31 9.92 10.17 (9.9%) 7th/[752,761) 9.23 10.02 9.65 10.29 9.37 10.57 10.11 10.10 10.01 10.64 (10.2%) 7th/[750,758) 9.49 10.18 9.89 9.53 10.44 10.67 9.63 9.70 9.77 10.70 (9.6%)
8th/[759,772) 9.72 9.99 10.08 10.00 10.05 9.82 9.88 10.00 9.84 10.62 (10.4%) 8th/[761,772) 9.65 10.21 9.84 9.79 9.85 10.35 10.26 9.78 9.79 10.49 (10.4%) 8th/[761,771) 9.73 9.94 9.78 10.01 10.38 9.93 9.67 10.16 9.83 10.57 (10%) 8th/[758,768) 9.61 9.88 10.37 10.29 9.13 10.01 10.13 9.48 10.26 10.84 (10.4%)
9th/[772,790) 9.51 10.15 9.88 10.01 9.86 10.23 10.02 9.99 10.09 10.27 (10.4%) 9th/[772,787) 9.47 9.75 10.08 10.16 10.47 9.52 9.85 10.08 10.05 10.57 (10.4%) 9th/[771,784) 9.48 10.08 10.31 9.71 9.98 9.88 10.17 9.93 9.98 10.48 (9.7%) 9th/[768,781) 9.58 10.05 9.95 10.11 10.22 10.00 10.02 9.78 10.02 10.26 (10%)
10th/[790,850] 9.39 9.97 10.05 9.99 10.01 9.89 10.07 10.01 10.05 10.57 (10.2%) 10th/[787,850] 9.50 10.11 10.06 9.95 9.83 10.09 9.95 9.98 10.07 10.45 (10.1%) 10th/[784,850] 9.47 10.01 9.97 10.09 10.09 10.03 9.88 9.97 10.06 10.44 (10.5%) 10th/[781,850] 9.45 10.05 9.89 9.84 10.03 10.25 9.95 10.24 9.97 10.35 (10.4%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 8 (N = 395,857) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 9 (N = 232,915) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 10 (N = 104,692) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 11 (N = 86,252)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS)
Level 5 (12.4%) Level 5 (8.5%) Level 5 (8.1%) Level 5 (7.5%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Level 4 (29.4%)
Level 4 (23.9%)
Level 4 (31.2%) Level 4 (35.5%)
Level 3 (22.8%)
Level 3 (24.9%)
Level 3 (25.1%) Level 3 (25%)
Level 2 (20.3%)
Level 2 (20.6%)
Level 2 (17.6%) Level 2 (17.6%)
Level 1 (25.5%)
Level 1 (13.7%) Level 1 (13.3%) Level 1 (17%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score 5 9 to
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99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
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99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to
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to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 98.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1847 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 949 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 68.0 29.9 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 2352 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 689
Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 17.8 70.5 N = 821 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 10.3 75.4 N = 447 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 12.6 12.1 17.9 13.0 36.8 N = 1203 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.0 2.6 54.5 N = 235
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[650,692) 9.68 10.05 10.07 10.18 9.96 9.94 9.88 9.99 9.89 10.37 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,692) 9.63 10.04 10.10 10.06 9.89 9.99 10.16 9.68 9.98 10.48 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,688) 11.80 7.97 10.00 10.27 9.74 10.01 10.10 10.03 9.70 10.38 (10%) 100 1st/[650,673) 9.46 11.19 8.73 10.76 9.71 9.71 10.32 9.96 9.82 10.35 (9.9%) 100
2nd/[692,710) 9.42 10.05 9.93 9.69 10.04 9.85 10.43 10.00 9.88 10.68 (9.9%) 2nd/[692,710) 9.49 9.86 9.99 10.09 10.03 10.06 9.89 10.26 9.87 10.45 (9.6%) 2nd/[688,704) 9.22 10.08 10.53 9.86 10.00 9.98 9.81 9.62 10.10 10.81 (9.7%) 2nd/[673,691) 9.65 9.91 10.95 9.62 9.72 9.65 9.53 10.11 10.20 10.67 (9.7%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[710,723) 9.42 10.01 9.87 10.01 10.53 10.02 9.92 9.86 10.12 10.25 (9.9%) 3rd/[710,723) 9.52 10.17 10.41 9.69 9.58 10.12 10.10 9.93 10.10 10.38 (9.8%) 3rd/[704,716) 8.79 10.50 9.45 9.88 10.18 10.09 10.03 10.67 10.12 10.30 (9.6%) 3rd/[691,706) 9.28 10.13 9.13 10.32 10.15 10.21 10.31 9.80 10.01 10.64 (10.1%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[723,734) 9.77 9.95 10.05 10.21 9.60 10.02 10.04 9.81 9.97 10.58 (10.1%) 4th/[723,734) 9.50 9.86 9.84 10.01 10.46 9.87 9.93 9.86 10.05 10.62 (10.3%) 4th/[716,727) 9.80 9.90 9.88 10.53 9.27 10.21 10.24 9.83 10.00 10.34 (10.3%) 4th/[706,718) 9.90 9.79 10.42 10.02 9.79 10.07 10.10 10.03 9.76 10.11 (9.8%)
5th/[734,743) 9.49 9.86 10.16 9.79 10.07 9.99 9.92 10.14 10.04 10.55 (9.4%) 5th/[734,744) 9.59 10.03 9.89 10.06 9.91 9.95 10.08 10.28 9.66 10.54 (10.3%) 5th/[727,737) 9.60 10.02 10.37 9.44 10.67 9.72 9.56 9.85 10.44 10.34 (9.9%) 5th/[718,729) 9.62 10.01 10.10 9.84 10.55 9.96 9.79 10.04 9.69 10.39 (9.8%)
6th/[743,753) 9.41 10.27 9.80 10.12 10.08 9.95 9.94 10.01 10.03 10.40 (10.7%) 6th/[744,753) 9.32 10.09 10.23 10.35 9.75 10.08 9.83 9.52 10.45 10.37 (9.5%) 6th/[737,747) 9.38 9.55 10.19 10.40 10.26 9.90 9.98 10.13 9.04 11.16 (10.1%) 6th/[729,740) 9.02 10.21 10.00 9.83 9.62 9.84 10.09 9.95 10.54 10.91 (10.4%)
7th/[753,763) 9.38 10.10 9.96 10.10 10.22 9.95 9.99 9.88 10.00 10.43 (10.2%) 7th/[753,763) 9.69 9.91 9.99 9.62 10.08 9.79 10.36 10.00 10.15 10.40 (10.1%) 7th/[747,757) 9.43 10.14 9.62 10.11 9.96 10.65 9.78 9.80 10.01 10.52 (9.6%) 7th/[740,751) 9.50 9.47 9.91 10.08 10.32 10.22 9.99 9.74 10.22 10.55 (9.7%)
8th/[763,774) 9.88 9.77 10.08 9.83 10.10 9.74 9.82 10.47 9.78 10.55 (9.9%) 8th/[763,775) 9.43 10.00 9.99 10.10 9.96 10.02 10.02 10.28 9.54 10.66 (10.5%) 8th/[757,770) 9.87 10.48 10.26 9.41 9.66 9.22 10.47 9.99 10.60 10.04 (10.5%) 8th/[751,765) 10.10 10.04 10.01 9.94 9.81 10.21 9.93 10.22 9.62 10.11 (9.9%)
9th/[774,789) 9.45 10.01 9.88 10.06 10.01 10.21 10.19 9.59 9.97 10.64 (10%) 9th/[775,790) 9.59 10.10 10.01 10.09 9.90 10.02 9.82 9.87 10.01 10.59 (9.8%) 9th/[770,786) 9.17 9.65 10.06 10.30 9.79 10.31 9.82 10.59 10.29 10.03 (10%) 9th/[765,786) 9.12 10.34 10.02 10.17 10.02 9.99 10.04 9.93 9.81 10.56 (10.6%)
10th/[789,850] 9.44 10.11 10.04 10.11 9.87 9.95 9.90 10.25 10.06 10.28 (10.1%) 10th/[790,850] 9.45 9.98 10.07 9.92 10.07 10.14 10.00 10.01 10.13 10.22 (10.4%) 10th/[786,850] 9.69 10.06 9.87 10.73 10.04 9.72 10.55 9.58 9.31 10.45 (10.3%) 10th/[786,850] 9.62 9.98 10.04 9.89 9.94 9.94 9.95 9.98 10.64 10.03 (10%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
REPORTS
• We are currently putting together technical reports for each state and the
consortium as a whole. Technical reports will include:
• Documentation of data preparation, analyses conducted and model
speci cation.
• Data preparation summaries of matched/unmatched cases associated with
SGP analyses.
• Individual and summary SGP results at both state and consortium level.
• Goodness of t results for each SGP analysis norm-group.
• Reports are scheduled to be nished late October/early November.
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About this copy
PARCC 2016 SGP Overview — PARCC, November 2016.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.