PARCC 2016 SGP Overview

PARCC · November 2016

PARCC 2016 SGP Overview — PARCC, November 2016.
Published

November 14, 2016

Event
Invited talk
Slides
14
Format
Converted from Keynote

This deck is an image-based copy of the original slides. Builds and animations are flattened; the slide text is reproduced below for search and screen readers.

Slide text
  1. PARCC 2016 SGP OVERVIEW Damian W Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment Dover, NH September 14th, 2016
  2. BACKGROUND • 2016 Marked the 2nd year of PARCC test administration allowing for the calculation of student growth. • The growth model designated to be used for calculation was student growth percentiles (SGP). • The Center for Assessment was contracted to perform SGP analyses for 2016. • Preparation for SGP analyses began in May, 2016 leading up to nal SGP analyses being conducted in mid-July 2016 fi
  3. BACKGROUND • Based upon preliminary meetings between Pearson and PARCC state leads, the following analytic assumptions were determined. • SGPs are calculated using theta values at both the consortium and state level. • SGPs are calculated for all grade/content area progressions norm groups with at least 1,000 students. • SGPs are calculated for: • Spring 2015 to Spring 2016 • Fall 2015 to Spring 2016.
  4. BACKGROUND • States participating in 2016 PARCC SGP analyses: Colorado, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Rhode Island. • A total of 2,552,132 unique students received SGPs for at least 1 grade/ content area in Spring 2016 • A total of 15,642 unique students received SGPs for at least 1 grade/content area in Fall 2015. • SGPs are calculated based upon test results for students taking the same tests at the same time. • Grade level ELA tests simpler to model that test taking patterns associated with Grade level Mathematics combined with Algebra I, II, Geometry, Integrated Math I, II, and III. • Preliminary norm groups established in June and nalized when nal data arrived in July. fi fi
  5. BACKGROUND • ELA Norm Groups: • Fall 2015 to Spring 2016: • No SGP analyses • Spring 2015 to Spring 2016: • Grade 3 to 4, 4 to 5, 5 to 6, 6 to 7, 7 to 8, 8 to 9, 9 to 10, and 10 to 11 • Mathematics Norm Groups: • Fall 2015 to Spring 2016: • Algebra I to Geometry, Geometry to Algebra II • Spring 2015 to Spring 2016: • Grade 3 to 4, 4 to 5, 5 to 6, 6 to 7, 7 to 8 • Grade 6 to Algebra I, Grade 7 to Algebra 1, Grade 8 to Algebra I, Geometry to Algebra I, Integrated Math I to Algebra I, Integrated Math II to Algebra I, Integrated Math III to Algebra I • Grade 6 to Geometry, Grade 7 to Geometry, Grade 8 to Geometry, Algebra I to Geometry, Integrated Math 1 to Geometry, Integrated Math II to Geometry, Integrated Math III to Geometry • Grade 7 to Algebra II, Grade 8 to Algebra II, Geometry to Algebra II, Algebra I to Algebra II, Integrated Math 1 to Algebra II, Integrated Math II to Algebra II, Integrated Math III to Algebra II • Grade 6 to Integrated Math I, Grade 7 to Integrated Math I, Grade 8 to Integrated Math I, Algebra I to Integrated Math I, Geometry to Integrated Math I, Algebra II to Integrated Math I • Grade 7 to Integrated Math II, Grade 8 to Integrated Math II, Integrated Math I to Integrated Math II • Grade 7 to Integrated Math III, Grade 8 to Integrated Math III, Integrated Math II to Integrated Math III, Integrated Math I to Integrated Math III
  6. BACKGROUND • SGPs are uniformly distributed and uncorrelated with prior achievement: All students, regardless of starting point can demonstrate high/low growth. • Median SGP for consortium and state norm groups are 50. • Tests of uniformity and the existence of ceiling effects are performed for each SGP norm-group analysis run. • Scaled Score CSEMs provided by Pearson were incorporated for calculation of SGP SEMs. • For testing purposes, scale score based SGPs, student growth projections (adequate growth percentiles) and SIMEX adjusted SGPs were calculated.
  7. RESULTS • All analyses successfully completed mid July. • All state and consortium level analyses required approximately 24 hours to complete. • Goodness of t results were generally quite good (i.e., uniform distribution of SGPs by prior achievement) with no indications of ceiling/ oor effects. • Consortium-based median SGPs (by state, grade and content area) ranged from 40 to 60. • In some cases SGPs could be calculated at the consortium level but not the state level due to insuf cient numbers of students in the state norm group. fl fi fi
  8. RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (MATHEMATICS) Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 4 (N = 422,426) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 5 (N = 417,351) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 6 (N = 414,501) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) Level 5 (6.6%) Level 5 (3.2%) Level 5 (4.4%) Level 4 Level 4 Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (32.3%) Level 3 (29.2%) Level 3 (30.1%) Level 3 (27.7%) Level 2 (21.5%) Level 2 (26.4%) Level 2 (26.4%) Level 1 (12%) Level 1 (11.5%) Level 1 (11%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 858 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 92.7 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1470 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1202 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 83.1 N = 254 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 5.8 12.0 71.9 N = 416 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 8.3 81.1 N = 302 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,696) 9.48 10.26 9.85 9.89 10.29 9.69 10.02 10.10 9.95 10.47 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,697) 9.81 9.78 9.89 10.16 10.07 10.05 9.76 10.07 10.10 10.31 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,697) 9.61 10.02 10.21 9.39 10.10 10.64 9.89 9.95 9.80 10.40 (9.3%) 100 2nd/[696,710) 9.62 9.76 10.08 10.25 9.35 10.44 9.88 10.12 9.85 10.66 (9.4%) 2nd/[697,709) 9.44 10.47 9.63 10.41 9.60 9.83 10.51 10.02 9.66 10.43 (10%) 2nd/[697,709) 9.67 9.83 9.79 10.52 10.03 9.60 10.18 9.62 10.25 10.53 (9.8%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[710,721) 9.32 10.04 9.94 10.17 10.48 9.93 9.66 9.59 10.53 10.34 (10.5%) 3rd/[709,718) 9.50 9.42 10.71 9.10 10.73 10.17 9.12 10.11 10.26 10.88 (9.7%) 3rd/[709,718) 9.49 10.05 10.15 9.72 10.19 10.04 9.58 10.26 9.95 10.58 (9.8%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[721,730) 9.70 10.29 9.66 9.90 10.48 9.78 10.08 10.36 9.44 10.32 (9.4%) 4th/[718,726) 9.62 10.04 9.83 10.04 9.66 9.95 10.90 9.94 9.59 10.43 (9.7%) 4th/[718,727) 9.34 9.51 10.59 10.18 9.97 9.79 9.85 10.27 9.99 10.49 (11%) 5th/[730,739) 9.56 9.91 10.49 9.56 9.60 10.14 10.27 9.60 10.22 10.65 (10%) 5th/[726,735) 9.06 10.77 9.44 10.51 10.17 9.66 10.07 9.57 10.53 10.23 (10.9%) 5th/[727,735) 9.97 10.63 8.77 10.35 10.11 10.45 9.98 9.85 9.51 10.39 (10%) 6th/[739,748) 9.37 10.73 8.99 10.92 9.85 9.81 9.91 9.93 10.25 10.22 (10.1%) 6th/[735,743) 10.23 9.06 10.79 9.78 10.36 9.94 9.71 9.86 10.18 10.10 (9.4%) 6th/[735,743) 9.41 10.28 10.50 10.52 9.25 9.58 9.99 10.03 10.29 10.15 (9.7%) 7th/[748,758) 9.44 9.49 10.88 9.09 10.20 10.06 9.96 10.59 9.67 10.62 (10.6%) 7th/[743,752) 9.27 10.35 9.78 9.78 9.65 10.10 10.05 10.57 9.86 10.58 (9.8%) 7th/[743,752) 9.52 9.53 9.94 9.87 10.19 10.04 10.35 10.18 10.04 10.34 (10.1%) 8th/[758,769) 9.82 10.08 9.50 10.22 10.36 10.17 9.72 9.99 9.79 10.35 (10.3%) 8th/[752,763) 9.65 10.11 9.86 10.34 9.47 10.43 10.19 9.53 9.60 10.81 (10.2%) 8th/[752,762) 9.57 9.89 10.36 10.08 9.29 10.57 9.60 9.81 9.84 10.98 (9.6%) 9th/[769,783) 9.48 10.19 10.48 10.09 9.62 9.70 10.16 9.81 10.02 10.44 (10.1%) 9th/[763,778) 9.42 9.76 10.27 9.98 10.36 9.79 9.57 10.11 10.23 10.52 (10.4%) 9th/[762,776) 9.26 10.40 9.80 9.90 10.57 9.40 10.13 10.05 9.73 10.76 (10.1%) 10th/[783,850] 9.42 9.88 10.02 9.89 10.05 10.10 9.94 10.04 10.16 10.50 (10%) 10th/[778,850] 9.56 10.20 9.76 9.98 10.00 9.99 10.21 10.10 10.04 10.18 (10.2%) 10th/[776,850] 9.69 9.81 10.00 10.03 10.05 10.21 10.01 10.11 10.06 10.03 (10.6%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 7 (N = 391,096) 2015−2016.2 Mathematics SS SGP, Grade 8 (N = 312,787) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) Level 5 (3.3%) Level 5 (2%) Level 4 (20%) Level 4 (27.6%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 3 (35.3%) Level 3 (30.5%) Level 2 (27.1%) Level 2 (31.3%) Level 1 (11.5%) Level 1 (11.4%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 98.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 2244 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 77.0 22.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 5720 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 9.3 74.4 N = 86 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.4 9.9 14.1 18.5 11.0 37.9 N = 626 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 to 1st/[650,697) 9.91 10.02 9.87 10.32 9.68 10.40 9.59 9.69 9.97 10.55 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,698) 10.90 8.50 10.63 9.98 9.81 10.39 9.52 9.96 10.01 10.31 (9.7%) 100 2nd/[697,709) 9.25 9.95 10.27 9.83 10.30 9.89 10.25 9.84 9.97 10.44 (10.2%) 2nd/[698,708) 9.92 9.79 10.00 9.57 10.59 9.90 9.86 10.10 9.62 10.66 (9.6%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[709,718) 9.53 10.06 9.78 9.90 10.29 9.69 9.77 10.58 10.01 10.39 (10%) 3rd/[708,716) 8.99 10.74 9.31 9.88 9.96 10.10 9.99 10.18 10.30 10.54 (9.6%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[718,726) 9.44 10.41 10.12 9.90 9.17 10.60 10.69 9.32 9.76 10.60 (9.8%) 4th/[716,723) 9.00 9.76 10.59 10.43 9.62 9.55 10.56 10.12 9.97 10.40 (10.7%) 5th/[726,734) 9.79 9.88 9.92 10.57 10.42 9.19 9.75 10.19 10.03 10.25 (10.2%) 5th/[723,729) 10.28 10.03 9.92 9.52 10.28 10.06 9.77 9.36 10.21 10.56 (8.9%) 6th/[734,742) 9.18 10.35 10.28 9.97 9.27 10.11 10.09 10.45 9.92 10.37 (9.9%) 6th/[729,736) 9.67 9.71 10.17 9.75 10.41 9.84 10.15 10.18 9.78 10.35 (10.7%) 7th/[742,750) 9.46 9.78 9.53 10.41 9.97 10.81 9.93 9.68 9.88 10.55 (9.3%) 7th/[736,743) 9.35 10.21 9.93 10.18 9.99 10.04 9.69 10.35 9.60 10.64 (10.2%) 8th/[750,760) 9.48 10.62 9.82 9.29 10.42 9.39 10.13 10.04 10.33 10.49 (10.4%) 8th/[743,751) 9.38 10.01 10.43 9.63 9.88 10.45 9.70 9.90 10.10 10.52 (9.8%) 9th/[760,773) 10.01 9.27 10.36 10.00 10.30 9.96 10.25 9.42 9.75 10.69 (10.3%) 9th/[751,763) 9.79 9.88 9.70 10.21 9.63 10.00 10.19 9.87 10.30 10.43 (10.4%) 10th/[773,850] 9.21 10.24 9.96 10.19 10.03 9.82 10.09 10.34 10.00 10.13 (10.2%) 10th/[763,850] 9.43 10.16 9.96 10.01 10.32 9.99 10.18 9.79 9.78 10.39 (10.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  9. RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ALGEBRA I) Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,193) 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 12,884) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Geometry SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) Level 5 (1.1%) Level 4 (7.8%) Level 3 Level 5 (32.8%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 2 (48.4%) Level 4 (57.2%) Level 1 (25.6%) Level 3 (8.6%) Level 1 Level 2 (1.3%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,656) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 21 Lowest OSS: [650,685) 84.0 12.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [797,815) 0.0 3.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 11.1 3.7 14.8 18.5 11.1 7.4 N = 27 [815,850] 3.4 0.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 10.3 6.9 17.2 13.8 13.8 13.8 10.3 N = 29 Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 18.7 20.1 54.5 N = 134 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,687) 11.86 8.47 10.17 9.32 9.32 10.17 11.02 11.02 9.32 9.32 (9.9%) 100 1st/[650,749) 9.94 10.36 10.19 9.61 10.36 9.44 10.02 10.36 10.27 9.44 (9.4%) 100 2nd/[687,695) 7.44 13.22 11.57 12.40 9.09 9.09 9.09 5.79 11.57 10.74 (10.1%) 2nd/[749,760) 10.14 9.75 9.44 10.37 9.20 10.92 9.91 9.67 10.06 10.53 (10%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[695,702) 11.93 9.17 6.42 9.17 11.93 14.68 8.26 8.26 10.09 10.09 (9.1%) 3rd/[760,767) 8.26 9.36 11.23 8.85 11.06 11.06 8.94 10.13 8.94 12.17 (9.1%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[702,707) 7.32 8.94 7.32 10.57 12.20 8.94 8.13 16.26 6.50 13.82 (10.3%) 4th/[767,773) 8.62 10.60 10.13 11.63 8.62 8.31 11.00 8.78 11.87 10.44 (9.8%) 5th/[707,711) 8.93 8.93 14.29 8.93 8.93 6.25 12.50 10.71 13.39 7.14 (9.4%) 5th/[773,779) 10.32 9.64 9.44 9.98 8.77 9.24 10.25 9.71 10.59 12.07 (11.5%) 6th/[711,716) 13.22 9.09 9.92 9.92 7.44 9.92 14.05 7.44 11.57 7.44 (10.1%) 6th/[779,784) 8.21 11.55 9.56 9.72 12.75 10.60 11.08 8.69 8.76 9.08 (9.7%) 7th/[716,722) 7.09 15.75 12.60 7.87 7.87 14.17 6.30 10.24 7.87 10.24 (10.6%) 7th/[784,789) 11.86 8.40 11.29 8.15 9.72 11.37 8.32 12.93 9.31 8.65 (9.4%) 8th/[722,731) 9.17 5.00 7.50 12.50 12.50 9.17 9.17 10.83 10.83 13.33 (10.1%) 8th/[789,795) 9.73 10.13 10.05 10.20 9.89 9.65 9.97 10.60 10.68 9.11 (9.9%) 9th/[731,747) 10.74 11.57 11.57 9.92 7.44 9.09 9.92 9.09 11.57 9.09 (10.1%) 9th/[795,804) 9.54 9.83 8.59 11.07 11.36 10.12 10.27 10.05 8.89 10.27 (10.7%) 10th/[747,813] 10.74 9.92 9.92 9.09 11.57 9.92 10.74 10.74 7.44 9.92 (10.1%) 10th/[804,850] 8.62 10.46 10.98 9.80 8.47 9.58 9.95 9.58 10.83 11.72 (10.5%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 69,317) 2015−2016.2 Algebra I SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 172,218) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) Level 5 (0.3%) Level 5 (7.3%) Level 4 (17.7%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (56%) Level 3 (27.6%) Level 2 (29.8%) Level 3 (27.1%) Level 1 (24.6%) Level 2 (8.1%) Level 1 (1.5%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1156 Extremes (Range) Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 57 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [821,827) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 16.0 8.0 16.0 56.0 N = 25 Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 9.6 17.4 15.1 45.9 N = 218 [827,850] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 7.7 15.4 73.1 N = 26 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,725) 9.44 10.16 10.12 10.09 10.01 9.77 9.98 10.01 10.04 10.39 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,682) 9.77 9.71 10.85 9.82 9.74 9.47 9.78 10.23 10.12 10.52 (9.5%) 100 2nd/[725,737) 9.62 10.18 9.48 10.08 9.59 10.27 10.07 10.08 9.90 10.71 (9.8%) 2nd/[682,695) 9.27 10.44 9.88 9.85 10.37 10.46 9.99 9.92 9.68 10.14 (10.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[737,745) 9.65 10.23 9.99 10.10 9.82 9.93 10.87 9.99 9.91 9.52 (9.8%) 3rd/[695,704) 9.73 9.22 10.18 10.41 9.19 10.44 9.91 10.08 10.31 10.52 (8.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[745,751) 9.54 9.56 10.77 10.29 10.49 9.89 9.46 9.76 10.00 10.23 (9.4%) 4th/[704,713) 9.69 10.26 9.52 10.34 9.90 9.70 10.47 9.60 9.88 10.65 (11.1%) 5th/[751,757) 9.19 10.07 9.72 9.66 9.69 10.79 9.20 10.17 10.19 11.32 (10.6%) 5th/[713,721) 9.24 10.08 10.17 9.86 10.59 9.87 9.50 10.54 9.71 10.44 (9.7%) 6th/[757,762) 9.65 9.66 9.33 9.95 10.66 10.03 9.15 9.72 10.57 11.28 (9.6%) 6th/[721,729) 9.63 10.25 9.63 10.30 9.87 10.18 10.08 10.02 10.06 9.98 (10.1%) 7th/[762,768) 9.08 10.48 10.28 10.07 9.51 9.80 10.01 10.24 9.74 10.78 (10.7%) 7th/[729,737) 9.68 9.75 10.59 9.45 10.12 10.24 9.56 9.59 10.23 10.80 (9.3%) 8th/[768,774) 10.10 10.10 10.19 9.94 9.27 10.13 9.73 10.07 10.75 9.72 (9.8%) 8th/[737,748) 9.46 10.20 9.88 10.22 9.51 9.68 10.31 10.29 9.90 10.56 (11.3%) 9th/[774,782) 9.95 9.79 10.09 10.16 9.95 10.52 10.65 9.95 9.59 9.36 (10%) 9th/[748,760) 9.62 9.57 9.82 10.02 10.09 10.23 10.45 10.03 9.69 10.48 (9.8%) 10th/[782,850] 9.15 9.96 10.16 9.89 10.58 9.76 9.99 10.11 9.60 10.80 (10.7%) 10th/[760,847] 9.41 10.39 10.24 9.87 10.06 9.78 9.98 9.72 10.19 10.36 (10.3%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  10. RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (GEOMETRY) Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 104,364) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 2,978) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,496) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra II SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) Level 5 (2.5%) Level 5 (2.2%) Level 4 (27%) Level 5 (28.8%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (32.4%) Level 3 (18.7%) Level 3 (26.1%) Level 2 (21.3%) Level 4 (61.2%) Level 2 (26.3%) Level 1 (30.8%) Level 1 (12.7%) Level 3 (8.8%) Level 1 Level 2 (1.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,671) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 18 Lowest OSS: [675,717) 45.8 12.5 16.7 8.3 12.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 24 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 264 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [825,830) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.2 0.0 58.8 N = 17 Highest OSS: [805,811) 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 5.6 22.2 22.2 11.1 11.1 16.7 N = 18 Highest OSS: [798,806) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N = 25 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,695) 9.54 10.51 9.84 9.89 9.64 9.95 9.92 10.27 9.94 10.52 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,672) 9.59 9.93 8.90 11.30 8.90 11.99 7.88 10.27 9.59 11.64 (9.8%) 100 1st/[689,750) 11.33 11.33 9.33 10.67 9.33 9.33 8.67 11.33 9.33 9.33 (10%) 100 2nd/[695,707) 9.66 9.58 10.03 10.27 10.21 9.84 10.48 9.72 9.84 10.37 (10.2%) 2nd/[672,686) 10.88 10.88 10.54 9.18 9.86 8.50 12.24 10.88 9.86 7.14 (9.9%) 2nd/[750,761) 8.72 10.07 8.72 9.40 10.74 8.72 14.09 6.71 11.41 11.41 (10%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[707,717) 9.56 10.08 9.99 10.05 9.55 10.48 10.13 9.70 10.19 10.27 (10.2%) 3rd/[686,699) 9.12 8.79 9.45 9.77 10.75 11.07 9.45 11.07 8.47 12.05 (10.3%) 3rd/[761,766) 11.61 9.82 12.50 12.50 5.36 14.29 8.93 8.04 9.82 7.14 (7.5%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[717,725) 9.75 10.20 9.81 9.84 10.34 9.21 9.50 10.48 10.13 10.74 (9%) 4th/[699,711) 9.73 11.07 9.73 10.74 9.40 9.06 9.73 8.39 10.07 12.08 (10%) 4th/[766,771) 7.10 10.06 8.28 9.47 12.43 8.88 12.43 10.65 11.24 9.47 (11.3%) 5th/[725,735) 9.61 9.52 10.25 10.37 10.14 10.66 9.54 9.98 9.59 10.35 (10.9%) 5th/[711,722) 9.69 10.73 10.03 9.34 10.38 10.38 9.00 11.07 11.07 8.30 (9.7%) 5th/[771,776) 12.20 10.37 11.59 9.15 9.76 9.15 11.59 9.15 6.71 10.37 (11%) 6th/[735,744) 9.58 9.97 9.77 10.45 9.30 9.90 10.12 9.86 10.28 10.77 (9.5%) 6th/[722,735) 9.31 7.59 11.38 10.00 9.31 10.69 11.38 10.69 8.28 11.38 (9.7%) 6th/[776,780) 10.22 8.76 8.76 10.95 11.68 11.68 8.03 8.76 10.95 10.22 (9.2%) 7th/[744,755) 9.19 10.25 9.97 9.85 10.36 9.74 10.17 10.50 9.65 10.32 (10.4%) 7th/[735,748) 10.00 13.10 7.59 10.34 8.62 9.31 8.97 8.62 12.76 10.69 (9.7%) 7th/[780,785) 8.48 10.91 10.91 9.09 8.48 10.30 6.06 12.73 9.70 13.33 (11%) 8th/[755,767) 9.82 10.24 10.27 9.81 9.70 10.34 10.27 9.05 10.32 10.17 (9.9%) 8th/[748,761) 8.25 8.91 11.88 8.91 12.87 10.23 9.57 12.21 7.92 9.24 (10.2%) 8th/[785,790) 10.32 7.94 7.94 9.52 9.52 7.94 11.11 12.70 13.49 9.52 (8.4%) 9th/[767,783) 9.33 10.09 9.76 10.03 10.14 9.92 9.65 10.43 10.08 10.57 (10.4%) 9th/[761,779) 10.44 11.39 10.76 9.18 9.49 8.54 11.39 8.54 10.76 9.49 (10.6%) 9th/[790,798) 9.94 10.53 11.70 9.94 11.11 8.19 9.36 8.77 9.94 10.53 (11.4%) 10th/[783,850] 9.65 9.74 10.05 10.08 10.02 10.08 10.15 9.69 9.92 10.62 (10.1%) 10th/[779,849] 9.36 9.36 9.70 10.70 9.70 10.70 9.03 10.37 9.70 11.37 (10%) 10th/[798,850] 9.15 9.80 10.46 10.46 9.15 11.76 11.76 9.15 7.84 10.46 (10.2%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 5,934) 2015−2016.2 Geometry SS SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 1,101) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I SS) Level 5 (6.5%) Level 5 (3.7%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (35.2%) Level 4 (54.2%) Level 3 (25.7%) Level 3 (23.2%) Level 2 (28.3%) Level 2 (11.1%) Level 1 (4.9%) Level 1 (7%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [650,675) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Lowest OSS: [650,680) 84.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 25 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [793,797) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 8.3 12.5 16.7 50.0 N = 24 Highest OSS: [774,781) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 16.7 12.5 12.5 16.7 4.2 12.5 4.2 16.7 N = 24 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,714) 9.45 10.48 9.97 9.62 10.48 10.48 10.65 9.79 9.97 9.11 (9.8%) 100 1st/[650,700) 12.99 9.09 9.09 11.69 7.79 9.09 12.99 9.09 10.39 7.79 (7%) 100 2nd/[714,730) 10.41 9.39 10.07 10.58 10.24 9.39 8.19 10.24 10.07 11.43 (9.9%) 2nd/[700,711) 9.09 14.77 11.36 3.41 14.77 9.09 3.41 12.50 10.23 11.36 (8%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[730,742) 9.50 10.88 9.15 9.67 11.23 8.12 11.05 9.15 10.71 10.54 (9.8%) 3rd/[711,724) 8.59 8.59 7.98 11.04 9.20 14.72 12.27 8.59 8.59 10.43 (14.8%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[742,750) 9.89 8.29 10.69 9.41 9.57 11.96 9.57 10.37 10.69 9.57 (10.6%) 4th/[724,731) 12.00 9.00 15.00 6.00 7.00 11.00 5.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 (9.1%) 5th/[750,759) 6.77 11.84 12.35 11.00 9.64 8.29 11.00 11.00 7.28 10.83 (10%) 5th/[731,738) 13.48 19.10 8.99 10.11 14.61 5.62 6.74 5.62 8.99 6.74 (8.1%) 6th/[759,766) 10.55 10.91 8.36 9.09 9.27 11.45 9.64 9.45 10.73 10.55 (9.3%) 6th/[738,747) 8.85 6.19 9.73 13.27 12.39 12.39 7.96 11.50 8.85 8.85 (10.3%) 7th/[766,774) 10.97 9.68 8.39 10.16 11.13 9.84 9.03 8.39 10.97 11.45 (10.4%) 7th/[747,758) 7.14 9.52 10.32 6.35 6.35 10.32 13.49 11.11 11.11 14.29 (11.4%) 8th/[774,782) 9.86 10.04 10.39 8.78 8.42 9.50 9.86 12.37 11.11 9.68 (9.4%) 8th/[758,769) 9.52 9.52 10.48 12.38 11.43 9.52 8.57 8.57 10.48 9.52 (9.5%) 9th/[782,795) 9.20 9.67 7.64 12.32 11.54 10.45 10.30 8.89 9.36 10.61 (10.8%) 9th/[769,785) 11.57 9.92 9.09 9.92 10.74 9.92 9.09 9.09 9.92 10.74 (11%) 10th/[795,850] 9.67 9.83 12.00 9.00 9.33 9.67 10.33 10.50 9.67 10.00 (10.1%) 10th/[785,841] 9.24 10.92 12.61 8.40 9.24 10.08 10.92 10.92 9.24 8.40 (10.8%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  11. RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ALGEBRA II) Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 11,698) 2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 67,945) 2015−2016.2 Algebra II SGP, Grade EOCT (N = 2,913) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Algebra I) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Geometry) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Level 5 (6.3%) Level 5 (2.3%) Level 4 (19.4%) Level 5 (21.5%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (44.9%) Level 3 (31.9%) Level 4 (66.8%) Level 3 (22.3%) Level 2 (35.6%) Level 2 (17.4%) Level 3 (9%) Level 1 (9.1%) Level 1 (10.7%) Level 2 Level 1 (1.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [−15,−3.189) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 22 Lowest OSS: [−15,−4.665) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 26 Lowest OSS: [−1.988,−1.293) 59.3 11.1 25.9 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 27 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [3.279,3.465) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 13.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 N = 23 Highest OSS: [3.628,3.868) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 10.7 10.7 21.4 46.4 N = 28 Highest OSS: [2.852,3.107) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 7.4 3.7 18.5 22.2 14.8 29.6 N = 27 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[−10,−1.059) 9.49 10.09 10.34 10.26 9.40 9.57 10.17 10.60 10.17 9.91 (10%) 100 1st/[−10,−1.283) 9.43 9.37 9.68 9.51 10.46 10.10 10.45 10.05 10.02 10.92 (10%) 100 1st/[−2.56,0.548) 10.27 9.25 10.62 9.25 10.96 10.96 10.27 9.59 10.27 8.56 (10%) 100 2nd/[−1.059,−0.5674) 10.02 10.62 9.16 9.59 11.73 10.27 9.85 8.82 8.90 11.04 (10%) 2nd/[−1.283,−0.9115) 9.50 10.58 10.50 10.12 9.63 10.21 9.48 9.88 9.90 10.21 (10%) 2nd/[0.548,0.969) 9.66 10.69 11.72 10.69 9.31 8.28 8.62 11.38 8.28 11.38 (10%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[−0.5674,−0.1289) 9.50 9.15 10.09 9.92 8.90 9.92 9.92 11.12 10.86 10.61 (10%) 3rd/[−0.9115,−0.6613) 10.23 10.76 9.25 10.67 10.12 9.53 9.83 10.01 9.65 9.95 (10%) 3rd/[0.969,1.23) 10.34 8.28 8.28 10.00 8.28 11.03 10.34 10.00 14.48 8.97 (10%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[−0.1289,0.2367) 9.13 9.81 11.01 9.56 8.96 11.09 10.49 9.13 10.75 10.07 (10%) 4th/[−0.6613,−0.4133) 9.01 9.95 10.29 10.01 10.02 10.41 9.97 9.54 10.27 10.52 (10%) 4th/[1.23,1.45) 7.90 10.65 9.28 11.00 8.25 7.90 12.37 8.25 11.68 12.71 (10%) 5th/[0.2367,0.583) 8.90 10.52 9.67 10.18 11.38 9.92 9.58 10.09 8.81 10.95 (10%) 5th/[−0.4133,−0.1657) 9.27 9.30 10.13 9.37 9.96 9.81 10.16 10.75 10.24 11.02 (10%) 5th/[1.45,1.63) 8.53 11.26 8.87 7.17 11.95 13.65 9.90 10.24 5.46 12.97 (10.1%) 6th/[0.583,0.8853) 10.53 9.76 9.33 11.30 9.42 9.33 9.93 10.19 9.93 10.27 (10%) 6th/[−0.1657,0.1018) 9.53 9.66 9.92 10.20 9.67 10.12 10.38 9.85 10.12 10.56 (10%) 6th/[1.63,1.81) 11.00 12.03 10.65 11.34 11.34 9.28 7.22 9.28 9.28 8.59 (10%) 7th/[0.8853,1.214) 9.05 10.33 10.42 9.05 9.56 9.22 9.14 10.42 12.04 10.76 (10%) 7th/[0.1018,0.4292) 9.57 10.37 10.28 10.06 10.50 9.35 10.06 10.10 9.72 9.99 (10%) 7th/[1.81,1.99) 10.96 8.90 10.62 8.56 10.62 11.30 8.56 10.96 9.25 10.27 (10%) 8th/[1.214,1.577) 9.74 10.00 10.43 8.97 10.00 10.34 11.28 9.91 9.23 10.09 (10%) 8th/[0.4292,0.8082) 9.31 10.27 9.89 10.14 9.66 10.83 9.31 9.81 9.97 10.81 (10%) 8th/[1.99,2.22) 9.31 10.34 8.97 12.07 11.03 8.28 11.03 10.34 11.38 7.24 (10%) 9th/[1.577,2.085) 9.49 9.23 8.89 10.09 11.71 10.43 10.51 10.00 8.29 11.37 (10%) 9th/[0.8082,1.335) 9.67 9.74 9.77 9.88 9.89 9.66 10.30 10.13 10.35 10.61 (10%) 9th/[2.22,2.55) 9.62 7.56 12.37 9.62 8.59 8.59 11.00 11.68 8.59 12.37 (10%) 10th/[2.085,6.686] 9.65 10.42 10.85 10.76 8.97 9.99 9.14 9.74 10.93 9.56 (10%) 10th/[1.335,5.135] 9.55 10.05 10.27 10.03 10.08 10.03 10.02 9.87 9.77 10.34 (10%) 10th/[2.55,4.57] 8.87 10.58 9.22 9.56 10.24 10.92 10.24 8.53 11.26 10.58 (10.1%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  12. RESULTS: GOODNESS OF FIT (ELA) Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 4 (N = 418,864) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 5 (N = 415,473) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 6 (N = 413,032) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 7 (N = 406,161) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) Level 5 (3.9%) Level 5 (8.6%) Level 5 (3.9%) Level 5 (5.9%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (35.2%) Level 4 (38.7%) Level 4 (34.4%) Level 4 (34.7%) Level 3 (23.4%) Level 3 (28.2%) Level 3 (28%) Level 3 (30%) Level 2 (19.5%) Level 2 (18.2%) Level 2 (19.3%) Level 2 (19.4%) Level 1 (18.1%) Level 1 (10.4%) Level 1 (10%) Level 1 (10.2%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1346 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 617 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 516 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1733 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 70.2 N = 393 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 84 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 92.9 N = 197 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 15.3 20.1 60.4 N = 1151 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,685) 9.54 10.02 10.28 10.00 10.32 9.59 10.07 9.88 9.93 10.37 (9.6%) 100 1st/[650,699) 9.54 10.21 10.13 9.89 10.14 9.77 10.06 9.94 9.91 10.41 (9.8%) 100 1st/[650,700) 9.75 10.16 10.10 10.14 9.92 9.94 9.73 10.01 9.90 10.36 (10%) 100 1st/[650,699) 9.58 10.14 10.15 10.18 9.95 9.59 9.95 9.96 10.06 10.44 (9.7%) 100 2nd/[685,702) 9.94 9.99 9.99 9.79 9.88 9.82 9.93 10.11 10.08 10.47 (9.7%) 2nd/[699,715) 9.54 9.65 9.90 10.12 10.22 10.13 10.01 9.93 9.94 10.56 (9.9%) 2nd/[700,714) 9.32 9.86 10.20 9.85 9.89 10.10 10.33 9.78 10.11 10.55 (9.6%) 2nd/[699,714) 9.54 9.89 9.65 9.60 10.17 10.57 10.50 9.65 9.86 10.55 (9.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[702,716) 9.11 10.14 9.68 10.30 9.92 10.27 10.20 9.93 9.83 10.64 (10.5%) 3rd/[715,726) 9.48 10.19 10.11 9.87 9.82 9.68 10.11 9.99 10.35 10.41 (10%) 3rd/[714,725) 9.27 10.09 9.53 9.96 10.35 10.09 10.00 10.15 10.00 10.57 (9.7%) 3rd/[714,725) 9.49 10.10 9.93 10.08 10.36 9.44 9.77 10.48 10.05 10.29 (10.2%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[716,728) 9.52 9.86 10.11 10.06 10.33 9.93 9.63 9.94 10.25 10.38 (10.2%) 4th/[726,735) 9.87 9.86 10.10 9.87 9.83 10.01 10.32 9.93 9.93 10.28 (9.5%) 4th/[725,735) 9.58 9.85 10.12 10.30 9.55 10.02 9.85 10.34 9.83 10.55 (10.4%) 4th/[725,734) 9.53 10.10 10.01 9.99 9.85 9.92 10.14 9.33 10.29 10.83 (10.3%) 5th/[728,738) 9.82 10.04 9.99 9.80 10.09 9.97 10.00 9.87 9.81 10.60 (9.5%) 5th/[735,744) 9.28 9.98 9.78 10.35 10.62 9.85 9.55 10.01 9.91 10.67 (10.6%) 5th/[735,743) 9.72 10.09 10.19 9.78 10.37 9.69 10.13 9.80 9.90 10.32 (9.2%) 5th/[734,742) 9.57 10.05 10.37 10.02 9.20 10.91 10.04 10.14 9.38 10.33 (9.7%) 6th/[738,749) 9.28 10.39 9.84 9.93 9.74 10.07 9.84 10.44 10.17 10.32 (10.4%) 6th/[744,752) 9.34 10.34 9.73 10.41 9.66 9.71 10.11 9.90 10.07 10.73 (9.3%) 6th/[743,752) 9.68 10.15 10.35 9.82 10.19 9.64 9.89 10.02 10.03 10.23 (10.7%) 6th/[742,750) 9.57 9.70 9.66 10.23 10.74 8.85 10.22 10.69 10.28 10.06 (10%) 7th/[749,759) 9.58 9.50 10.21 10.11 10.16 10.32 9.91 9.79 9.90 10.52 (9.1%) 7th/[752,761) 9.72 9.73 10.31 9.89 10.00 10.05 9.91 10.31 9.92 10.17 (9.9%) 7th/[752,761) 9.23 10.02 9.65 10.29 9.37 10.57 10.11 10.10 10.01 10.64 (10.2%) 7th/[750,758) 9.49 10.18 9.89 9.53 10.44 10.67 9.63 9.70 9.77 10.70 (9.6%) 8th/[759,772) 9.72 9.99 10.08 10.00 10.05 9.82 9.88 10.00 9.84 10.62 (10.4%) 8th/[761,772) 9.65 10.21 9.84 9.79 9.85 10.35 10.26 9.78 9.79 10.49 (10.4%) 8th/[761,771) 9.73 9.94 9.78 10.01 10.38 9.93 9.67 10.16 9.83 10.57 (10%) 8th/[758,768) 9.61 9.88 10.37 10.29 9.13 10.01 10.13 9.48 10.26 10.84 (10.4%) 9th/[772,790) 9.51 10.15 9.88 10.01 9.86 10.23 10.02 9.99 10.09 10.27 (10.4%) 9th/[772,787) 9.47 9.75 10.08 10.16 10.47 9.52 9.85 10.08 10.05 10.57 (10.4%) 9th/[771,784) 9.48 10.08 10.31 9.71 9.98 9.88 10.17 9.93 9.98 10.48 (9.7%) 9th/[768,781) 9.58 10.05 9.95 10.11 10.22 10.00 10.02 9.78 10.02 10.26 (10%) 10th/[790,850] 9.39 9.97 10.05 9.99 10.01 9.89 10.07 10.01 10.05 10.57 (10.2%) 10th/[787,850] 9.50 10.11 10.06 9.95 9.83 10.09 9.95 9.98 10.07 10.45 (10.1%) 10th/[784,850] 9.47 10.01 9.97 10.09 10.09 10.03 9.88 9.97 10.06 10.44 (10.5%) 10th/[781,850] 9.45 10.05 9.89 9.84 10.03 10.25 9.95 10.24 9.97 10.35 (10.4%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 8 (N = 395,857) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 9 (N = 232,915) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 10 (N = 104,692) 2015−2016.2 ELA SS SGP, Grade 11 (N = 86,252) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA SS) Level 5 (12.4%) Level 5 (8.5%) Level 5 (8.1%) Level 5 (7.5%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Level 4 (29.4%) Level 4 (23.9%) Level 4 (31.2%) Level 4 (35.5%) Level 3 (22.8%) Level 3 (24.9%) Level 3 (25.1%) Level 3 (25%) Level 2 (20.3%) Level 2 (20.6%) Level 2 (17.6%) Level 2 (17.6%) Level 1 (25.5%) Level 1 (13.7%) Level 1 (13.3%) Level 1 (17%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 99 Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 98.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 1847 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 949 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 68.0 29.9 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 2352 Lowest OSS: [ 650 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 689 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 17.8 70.5 N = 821 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 10.3 75.4 N = 447 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 12.6 12.1 17.9 13.0 36.8 N = 1203 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 850 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.0 2.6 54.5 N = 235 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[650,692) 9.68 10.05 10.07 10.18 9.96 9.94 9.88 9.99 9.89 10.37 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,692) 9.63 10.04 10.10 10.06 9.89 9.99 10.16 9.68 9.98 10.48 (9.7%) 100 1st/[650,688) 11.80 7.97 10.00 10.27 9.74 10.01 10.10 10.03 9.70 10.38 (10%) 100 1st/[650,673) 9.46 11.19 8.73 10.76 9.71 9.71 10.32 9.96 9.82 10.35 (9.9%) 100 2nd/[692,710) 9.42 10.05 9.93 9.69 10.04 9.85 10.43 10.00 9.88 10.68 (9.9%) 2nd/[692,710) 9.49 9.86 9.99 10.09 10.03 10.06 9.89 10.26 9.87 10.45 (9.6%) 2nd/[688,704) 9.22 10.08 10.53 9.86 10.00 9.98 9.81 9.62 10.10 10.81 (9.7%) 2nd/[673,691) 9.65 9.91 10.95 9.62 9.72 9.65 9.53 10.11 10.20 10.67 (9.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[710,723) 9.42 10.01 9.87 10.01 10.53 10.02 9.92 9.86 10.12 10.25 (9.9%) 3rd/[710,723) 9.52 10.17 10.41 9.69 9.58 10.12 10.10 9.93 10.10 10.38 (9.8%) 3rd/[704,716) 8.79 10.50 9.45 9.88 10.18 10.09 10.03 10.67 10.12 10.30 (9.6%) 3rd/[691,706) 9.28 10.13 9.13 10.32 10.15 10.21 10.31 9.80 10.01 10.64 (10.1%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[723,734) 9.77 9.95 10.05 10.21 9.60 10.02 10.04 9.81 9.97 10.58 (10.1%) 4th/[723,734) 9.50 9.86 9.84 10.01 10.46 9.87 9.93 9.86 10.05 10.62 (10.3%) 4th/[716,727) 9.80 9.90 9.88 10.53 9.27 10.21 10.24 9.83 10.00 10.34 (10.3%) 4th/[706,718) 9.90 9.79 10.42 10.02 9.79 10.07 10.10 10.03 9.76 10.11 (9.8%) 5th/[734,743) 9.49 9.86 10.16 9.79 10.07 9.99 9.92 10.14 10.04 10.55 (9.4%) 5th/[734,744) 9.59 10.03 9.89 10.06 9.91 9.95 10.08 10.28 9.66 10.54 (10.3%) 5th/[727,737) 9.60 10.02 10.37 9.44 10.67 9.72 9.56 9.85 10.44 10.34 (9.9%) 5th/[718,729) 9.62 10.01 10.10 9.84 10.55 9.96 9.79 10.04 9.69 10.39 (9.8%) 6th/[743,753) 9.41 10.27 9.80 10.12 10.08 9.95 9.94 10.01 10.03 10.40 (10.7%) 6th/[744,753) 9.32 10.09 10.23 10.35 9.75 10.08 9.83 9.52 10.45 10.37 (9.5%) 6th/[737,747) 9.38 9.55 10.19 10.40 10.26 9.90 9.98 10.13 9.04 11.16 (10.1%) 6th/[729,740) 9.02 10.21 10.00 9.83 9.62 9.84 10.09 9.95 10.54 10.91 (10.4%) 7th/[753,763) 9.38 10.10 9.96 10.10 10.22 9.95 9.99 9.88 10.00 10.43 (10.2%) 7th/[753,763) 9.69 9.91 9.99 9.62 10.08 9.79 10.36 10.00 10.15 10.40 (10.1%) 7th/[747,757) 9.43 10.14 9.62 10.11 9.96 10.65 9.78 9.80 10.01 10.52 (9.6%) 7th/[740,751) 9.50 9.47 9.91 10.08 10.32 10.22 9.99 9.74 10.22 10.55 (9.7%) 8th/[763,774) 9.88 9.77 10.08 9.83 10.10 9.74 9.82 10.47 9.78 10.55 (9.9%) 8th/[763,775) 9.43 10.00 9.99 10.10 9.96 10.02 10.02 10.28 9.54 10.66 (10.5%) 8th/[757,770) 9.87 10.48 10.26 9.41 9.66 9.22 10.47 9.99 10.60 10.04 (10.5%) 8th/[751,765) 10.10 10.04 10.01 9.94 9.81 10.21 9.93 10.22 9.62 10.11 (9.9%) 9th/[774,789) 9.45 10.01 9.88 10.06 10.01 10.21 10.19 9.59 9.97 10.64 (10%) 9th/[775,790) 9.59 10.10 10.01 10.09 9.90 10.02 9.82 9.87 10.01 10.59 (9.8%) 9th/[770,786) 9.17 9.65 10.06 10.30 9.79 10.31 9.82 10.59 10.29 10.03 (10%) 9th/[765,786) 9.12 10.34 10.02 10.17 10.02 9.99 10.04 9.93 9.81 10.56 (10.6%) 10th/[789,850] 9.44 10.11 10.04 10.11 9.87 9.95 9.90 10.25 10.06 10.28 (10.1%) 10th/[790,850] 9.45 9.98 10.07 9.92 10.07 10.14 10.00 10.01 10.13 10.22 (10.4%) 10th/[786,850] 9.69 10.06 9.87 10.73 10.04 9.72 10.55 9.58 9.31 10.45 (10.3%) 10th/[786,850] 9.62 9.98 10.04 9.89 9.94 9.94 9.95 9.98 10.64 10.03 (10%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  13. REPORTS • We are currently putting together technical reports for each state and the consortium as a whole. Technical reports will include: • Documentation of data preparation, analyses conducted and model speci cation. • Data preparation summaries of matched/unmatched cases associated with SGP analyses. • Individual and summary SGP results at both state and consortium level. • Goodness of t results for each SGP analysis norm-group. • Reports are scheduled to be nished late October/early November. fi fi fi