Idaho Growth Targets
Investigation of Transition Likelihood
Damian Betebenner
Center for Assessment
July 24th, 2024
Investigating Achievement Level
Transitions
• Idaho is in the process of establishing achievement level based
scaled score cuts associated with a student growth transition
table.
• Cuts are being established in an attempt to motivate a 1
transition/year growth rate.
• Idaho has subdivided each of Achievement Levels 1, 2 and 3 into 3
parts based upon scaled score tertiles. Level 4 is not subdivided.
• Using 2021 and 2022 ISAT data, the following analyses calculate
the probabilities of students transitioning as desired.
Investigating Achievement Level
Transitions
• The purpose of these analyses is to determine whether the growth goals thus established are
reasonable and fair for Idaho students.
• Reasonable goals imply that the chances of reaching the outcome are not unreasonably high.
• Fair goals imply that the chances of reaching the goal do not differ markedly based upon the
formulation of the model.
• We investigate Idaho’s growth-to-standard model in two similar ways:
• Transition probabilities: We calculate the conditional probability of transitioning from prior to
current achievement level
• Adequate Growth Percentiles (AGPs): We calculate growth-to-standard for each student to
each achievement level cut and summarize the distribution of AGPs.
• Both approaches present a probability of a student reaching the desired achievement outcome.
• AGPs are more nuanced in that they take account of the scale score starting point whereas
transition probabilities consider just the beginning achievement level.
Recommendations
• The tertile subdivision of achievement levels yields defensible
growth targets for students in both ELA and mathematics.
• For a vast majority of students the targets are reasonable.
• Targets for students (those at the bottom of the prior
achievement level) are unreasonable in some instances.
However, when aggregated to a group level (e.g., school)
these instances are likely to not adversely affect
interpretation.
Transition Probabilities
ELA/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
ELA/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Mathematics/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
ELA/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Adequate Growth Percentiles
Distribution of AGPs: ELA/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
1_1 Min: 31, 25th: 38, 50th: 45, 75th: 54, Max: 86
1_2 Min: 37, 25th: 44, 50th: 48, 75th: 54, Max: 64
1_3 Min: 35, 25th: 44, 50th: 48, 75th: 53, Max: 61
Prior Achievement Level
2_1 Min: 35, 25th: 45, 50th: 49, 75th: 53, Max: 63
2_2 Min: 36, 25th: 45, 50th: 51, 75th: 55, Max: 64
2_3 Min: 39, 25th: 45, 50th: 51, 75th: 59, Max: 66
3_1 Min: 26, 25th: 35, 50th: 40, 75th: 46, Max: 55
3_2 Min: 28, 25th: 38, 50th: 43, 75th: 48, Max: 58
3_3 Min: 30, 25th: 41, 50th: 46, 75th: 52, Max: 63
Min: 1, 25th: 24,
4 50th: 38, 75th: 50, Max: 69
Distribution of AGPs: ELA/All Grades
Current Achievement Level
1_1 Min: 31, 25th: 45, 50th: 54, 75th: 65, Max: 84
1_2 Min: 32, 25th: 47, 50th: 55, 75th: 62, Max: 74
1_3 Min: 33, 25th: 48, 50th: 58, 75th: 64, Max: 74
Prior Achievement Level
2_1 Min: 39, 25th: 51, 50th: 59, 75th: 65, Max: 75
2_2 Min: 43, 25th: 53, 50th: 59, 75th: 66, Max: 75
2_3 Min: 45, 25th: 56, 50th: 61, 75th: 68, Max: 78
3_1 Min: 34, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 53, Max: 63
3_2 Min: 35, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 52, Max: 62
3_3 Min: 34, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 51, Max: 62
Min: 1, 25th: 18,
4 50th: 31, 75th: 45, Max: 61
Summary
• The goal of these analyses was to determine whether the
growth model outlined in the introduction provides
reasonable and fair growth goals for students
• A reasonable target is one that provides a decent chance of
actually achieving the goal.
• A fair target is one that does not markedly differ based upon
the formulation of the model.
Summary: Reasonableness
• In general, the probability of students reaching their growth goal
appears to be reasonable.
• Transition probabilities in ELA ranged between 0.48 and 0.70 of
achieving the growth goal. In mathematics, the probabilities
ranged between 0.4 and 0.7.
• Median SGPs ranged from 38 to 51 in ELA and from 31 to 61 in
mathematics.
• Results from both models confirm that on average, the goals for
students are reasonable.
Summary: Fairness
• Fairness looks at the consistency of the AGPs across prior achievement levels as well
as consistency of the AGPs within each of the prior achievement levels.
• The results suggest that growth goals for higher achieving students is slightly
easier than for lower achieving students.
• Such a result is consistent with what has been found in several states that
students who are behind need to do more to catch-up.
• In some prior achievement levels (e.g., 1_1), there is a rather wide range of AGPs
necessary to reach the growth goal. This suggest much greater difficulty for
students at the bottom of the achievement level and much easier difficulty for
students at the top.
• In some cases, the targets appear unreasonable. Average across all students
within a school, the results will likely “average” out and not be of concern.
Transition Probabilities
Grades 4/ELA
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 5/ELA
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 6/ELA
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 7/ELA
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 8/ELA
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 4/Mathematics
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 5/Mathematics
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 6/Mathematics
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 7/Mathematics
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
Transition Probabilities
Grades 8/Mathematics
Current Achievement Level
Prior Achievement Level
About this copy
Idaho Growth Targets — Idaho Department of Education, July 24, 2024.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.