Idaho Growth Targets

Idaho Department of Education · July 24, 2024

Idaho Growth Targets — Idaho Department of Education, July 24, 2024.
Published

July 24, 2024

Event
State agency
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28
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  1. Idaho Growth Targets Investigation of Transition Likelihood Damian Betebenner Center for Assessment July 24th, 2024
  2. Introduction
  3. Investigating Achievement Level Transitions • Idaho is in the process of establishing achievement level based scaled score cuts associated with a student growth transition table. • Cuts are being established in an attempt to motivate a 1 transition/year growth rate. • Idaho has subdivided each of Achievement Levels 1, 2 and 3 into 3 parts based upon scaled score tertiles. Level 4 is not subdivided. • Using 2021 and 2022 ISAT data, the following analyses calculate the probabilities of students transitioning as desired.
  4. Investigating Achievement Level Transitions • The purpose of these analyses is to determine whether the growth goals thus established are reasonable and fair for Idaho students. • Reasonable goals imply that the chances of reaching the outcome are not unreasonably high. • Fair goals imply that the chances of reaching the goal do not differ markedly based upon the formulation of the model. • We investigate Idaho’s growth-to-standard model in two similar ways: • Transition probabilities: We calculate the conditional probability of transitioning from prior to current achievement level • Adequate Growth Percentiles (AGPs): We calculate growth-to-standard for each student to each achievement level cut and summarize the distribution of AGPs. • Both approaches present a probability of a student reaching the desired achievement outcome. • AGPs are more nuanced in that they take account of the scale score starting point whereas transition probabilities consider just the beginning achievement level.
  5. Recommendations • The tertile subdivision of achievement levels yields defensible growth targets for students in both ELA and mathematics. • For a vast majority of students the targets are reasonable. • Targets for students (those at the bottom of the prior achievement level) are unreasonable in some instances. However, when aggregated to a group level (e.g., school) these instances are likely to not adversely affect interpretation.
  6. Transition Probabilities
  7. Transition Probabilities ELA/All Grades Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  8. Transition Probabilities ELA/All Grades Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  9. Transition Probabilities Mathematics/All Grades Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  10. Transition Probabilities ELA/All Grades Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  11. Adequate Growth Percentiles
  12. Distribution of AGPs: ELA/All Grades Current Achievement Level 1_1 Min: 31, 25th: 38, 50th: 45, 75th: 54, Max: 86 1_2 Min: 37, 25th: 44, 50th: 48, 75th: 54, Max: 64 1_3 Min: 35, 25th: 44, 50th: 48, 75th: 53, Max: 61 Prior Achievement Level 2_1 Min: 35, 25th: 45, 50th: 49, 75th: 53, Max: 63 2_2 Min: 36, 25th: 45, 50th: 51, 75th: 55, Max: 64 2_3 Min: 39, 25th: 45, 50th: 51, 75th: 59, Max: 66 3_1 Min: 26, 25th: 35, 50th: 40, 75th: 46, Max: 55 3_2 Min: 28, 25th: 38, 50th: 43, 75th: 48, Max: 58 3_3 Min: 30, 25th: 41, 50th: 46, 75th: 52, Max: 63 Min: 1, 25th: 24, 4 50th: 38, 75th: 50, Max: 69
  13. Distribution of AGPs: ELA/All Grades Current Achievement Level 1_1 Min: 31, 25th: 45, 50th: 54, 75th: 65, Max: 84 1_2 Min: 32, 25th: 47, 50th: 55, 75th: 62, Max: 74 1_3 Min: 33, 25th: 48, 50th: 58, 75th: 64, Max: 74 Prior Achievement Level 2_1 Min: 39, 25th: 51, 50th: 59, 75th: 65, Max: 75 2_2 Min: 43, 25th: 53, 50th: 59, 75th: 66, Max: 75 2_3 Min: 45, 25th: 56, 50th: 61, 75th: 68, Max: 78 3_1 Min: 34, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 53, Max: 63 3_2 Min: 35, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 52, Max: 62 3_3 Min: 34, 25th: 42, 50th: 47, 75th: 51, Max: 62 Min: 1, 25th: 18, 4 50th: 31, 75th: 45, Max: 61
  14. Summary
  15. Summary • The goal of these analyses was to determine whether the growth model outlined in the introduction provides reasonable and fair growth goals for students • A reasonable target is one that provides a decent chance of actually achieving the goal. • A fair target is one that does not markedly differ based upon the formulation of the model.
  16. Summary: Reasonableness • In general, the probability of students reaching their growth goal appears to be reasonable. • Transition probabilities in ELA ranged between 0.48 and 0.70 of achieving the growth goal. In mathematics, the probabilities ranged between 0.4 and 0.7. • Median SGPs ranged from 38 to 51 in ELA and from 31 to 61 in mathematics. • Results from both models confirm that on average, the goals for students are reasonable.
  17. Summary: Fairness • Fairness looks at the consistency of the AGPs across prior achievement levels as well as consistency of the AGPs within each of the prior achievement levels. • The results suggest that growth goals for higher achieving students is slightly easier than for lower achieving students. • Such a result is consistent with what has been found in several states that students who are behind need to do more to catch-up. • In some prior achievement levels (e.g., 1_1), there is a rather wide range of AGPs necessary to reach the growth goal. This suggest much greater difficulty for students at the bottom of the achievement level and much easier difficulty for students at the top. • In some cases, the targets appear unreasonable. Average across all students within a school, the results will likely “average” out and not be of concern.
  18. Additional Results
  19. Transition Probabilities Grades 4/ELA Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  20. Transition Probabilities Grades 5/ELA Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  21. Transition Probabilities Grades 6/ELA Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  22. Transition Probabilities Grades 7/ELA Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  23. Transition Probabilities Grades 8/ELA Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  24. Transition Probabilities Grades 4/Mathematics Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  25. Transition Probabilities Grades 5/Mathematics Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  26. Transition Probabilities Grades 6/Mathematics Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  27. Transition Probabilities Grades 7/Mathematics Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
  28. Transition Probabilities Grades 8/Mathematics Current Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level