2025 New Mexico MSSA
SGP Analyses and Results
Damian Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden
Center for Assessment
December 2nd, 2025
MSSA SGP Analyses in 2025: MSSA
• SGP analyses have been conducted for 2023, 2024 and 2025
• Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms
from the 2023 and 2024 students. These growth norms yield cohort
mean (rounded)/median SGPs of 50.
• No Baseline referenced analyses were conducted as historical (e.g. pre-
pandemic) growth norms have not yet been established.
• No Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for any of the years.
RI Academic Impact Discussion 2023
2025 SGP Results
• Mean/Median for cohort referenced referenced SGP in ELA and
Mathematics are as follows:
ELA Mathematics
Grade
Cohort Referenced Cohort Referenced
2025 SGP Results: ELA
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,819) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,426) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,400)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA)
Advanced (17.9%) Advanced (21.5%) Advanced (16.4%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (14.6%)
Proficient (23.7%)
Proficient (20.5%)
Near Proficient (39.2%)
Near Proficient (29.8%)
Near Proficient (32.8%)
Novice (28.3%) Novice (25.2%) Novice (30.1%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99
1 5 1 5 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 363 Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 81.8 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 422
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Lowest OSS: [ 600 ] 65.7 21.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 543
Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.8 0.0 0.1 19.5 8.5 19.2 19.0 N = 1013 Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9 6.8 17.2 18.2 33.9 N = 570
(489,490] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 12 (589,590] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N=2 Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 9.2 1.2 5.3 13.1 21.7 14.6 32.2 N = 773
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[300,319) 10.50 12.60 8.48 9.08 9.53 11.63 10.50 7.80 10.13 9.75 (6.7%) 100 1st/[400,426) 10.99 8.89 10.27 9.31 10.69 10.27 9.91 9.67 10.21 9.79 (8.2%) 100 1st/[500,525) 10.55 9.45 10.36 10.16 9.58 10.42 10.29 9.97 9.26 9.97 (7.6%) 100
2nd/[319,332) 9.35 10.64 9.47 12.29 9.23 8.87 8.99 10.96 9.59 10.60 (12.5%) 2nd/[426,436) 10.31 9.97 10.22 10.26 10.07 9.38 10.31 9.48 9.82 10.17 (10%) 2nd/[525,536) 10.20 10.02 9.79 10.33 10.51 8.98 10.15 9.70 9.88 10.42 (10.9%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[332,337) 9.91 9.35 10.41 10.64 10.36 11.76 7.78 10.75 10.41 8.62 (9%) 3rd/[436,444) 9.32 9.51 9.61 10.24 9.75 10.43 9.17 10.67 10.53 10.77 (10.1%) 3rd/[536,542) 10.06 9.93 10.18 9.93 8.48 10.82 9.68 10.25 10.31 10.37 (7.8%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[337,344) 11.06 10.73 11.11 8.78 6.04 11.29 11.90 9.85 8.55 10.69 (10.9%) 4th/[444,450) 10.23 10.75 10.07 9.60 9.50 8.98 10.28 9.81 9.97 10.80 (9.4%) 4th/[542,549) 9.13 11.05 9.72 9.92 9.76 10.51 10.01 10.09 9.84 9.97 (11.8%)
5th/[344,350) 8.62 9.84 9.05 10.42 13.07 9.37 10.11 8.68 10.16 10.69 (9.5%) 5th/[450,456) 9.64 9.98 9.88 10.18 10.57 10.32 10.23 9.93 9.59 9.69 (10%) 5th/[549,555) 10.04 9.41 9.99 10.08 10.84 9.32 9.99 9.77 8.96 11.60 (10.9%)
6th/[350,356) 8.86 10.46 11.84 9.08 10.40 10.72 5.73 11.78 10.99 10.14 (9.5%) 6th/[456,462) 9.42 10.03 9.70 9.89 9.84 11.02 9.37 10.31 10.03 10.40 (10.4%) 6th/[555,561) 8.86 9.76 10.56 9.89 10.21 9.44 10.25 9.62 10.74 10.65 (11%)
7th/[356,361) 9.89 9.89 10.33 9.73 10.49 6.68 15.38 8.59 8.10 10.92 (9.3%) 7th/[462,468) 9.52 10.32 10.51 10.13 9.71 9.38 9.99 10.04 9.61 10.80 (10.3%) 7th/[561,565) 9.66 11.24 9.38 9.79 9.72 10.07 10.41 9.72 9.86 10.14 (7.1%)
8th/[361,369) 10.81 9.46 8.96 10.93 9.50 11.35 8.20 9.88 10.77 10.13 (12%) 8th/[468,474) 9.87 10.35 10.16 9.58 10.40 10.01 10.35 9.00 10.89 9.39 (10.1%) 8th/[565,571) 9.81 10.14 10.19 9.86 9.47 10.34 10.24 10.29 9.76 9.90 (10.1%)
9th/[369,378) 9.05 10.39 10.94 9.10 10.49 10.04 10.09 9.40 10.00 10.49 (10.1%) 9th/[474,481) 9.62 9.56 9.83 10.26 9.78 10.52 9.88 10.52 9.09 10.95 (9.2%) 9th/[571,579) 8.76 9.51 10.14 10.39 10.31 9.93 9.09 10.48 9.60 11.78 (11.7%)
10th/[378,390] 10.41 9.98 11.28 11.57 23.34 6.46 5.64 13.11 4.15 4.05 (10.5%) 10th/[481,490] 9.81 9.92 10.88 10.12 9.69 9.61 13.06 8.65 9.09 9.17 (12.3%) 10th/[579,590] 9.57 10.01 10.23 10.71 11.28 9.13 9.96 10.14 10.80 8.17 (11.2%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
2025 SGP Results: ELA
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,231) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 20,679)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA)
Advanced (16.9%) Advanced (19.1%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (22.9%) Proficient (21.4%)
Near Proficient (41%) Near Proficient (42.1%)
Novice (19.2%) Novice (17.5%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 700 ] 64.6 19.4 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 356 Lowest OSS: [ 800 ] 86.5 12.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 267
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.5 7.4 12.6 19.1 17.8 33.1 N = 792 Highest OSS: [ 889 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 1.0 5.3 7.0 7.8 14.2 17.5 14.9 24.0 N = 1453
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[600,622) 10.19 9.92 10.25 10.36 9.59 9.81 9.53 9.59 10.14 10.63 (9%) 100 1st/[700,721) 9.94 9.63 10.50 10.50 10.62 10.12 9.44 9.50 9.81 9.94 (7.8%) 100
2nd/[622,634) 9.84 9.74 10.33 10.18 9.79 10.03 10.18 10.08 9.79 10.03 (10.1%) 2nd/[721,733) 10.59 9.90 9.40 9.65 10.19 10.09 9.80 9.75 10.14 10.49 (9.7%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[634,641) 9.22 10.24 9.41 9.47 10.36 9.47 9.85 9.73 10.11 12.14 (7.8%) 3rd/[733,743) 8.97 9.55 10.79 10.01 9.97 9.88 10.17 9.59 10.55 10.50 (11.7%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[641,649) 9.99 9.71 9.95 9.67 10.23 9.71 10.07 10.63 10.71 9.31 (12.3%) 4th/[743,749) 10.23 10.65 8.56 9.99 10.29 11.25 9.63 9.87 9.46 10.05 (8.1%)
5th/[649,655) 9.30 10.75 9.96 10.08 9.78 10.63 9.30 9.96 8.76 11.47 (8.2%) 5th/[749,754) 9.20 9.86 10.78 9.31 9.42 9.48 10.57 10.46 9.86 11.06 (8.9%)
6th/[655,659) 10.10 9.07 9.70 9.59 10.45 9.41 10.96 9.64 10.10 10.96 (8.6%) 6th/[754,762) 10.41 10.01 10.19 9.36 10.05 10.23 9.51 9.69 9.87 10.69 (13.4%)
7th/[659,667) 9.27 10.35 10.11 10.27 9.35 10.23 9.87 10.07 10.55 9.95 (12.4%) 7th/[762,767) 9.24 9.81 9.35 11.42 9.71 10.18 10.02 9.97 10.12 10.18 (9.3%)
8th/[667,672) 9.95 10.64 9.78 9.95 10.55 9.82 9.65 9.47 9.69 10.51 (11.4%) 8th/[767,773) 9.86 11.10 9.62 9.74 9.62 9.09 9.20 10.45 10.75 10.57 (8.1%)
9th/[672,680) 8.76 9.31 9.53 10.23 9.53 10.51 10.83 9.69 9.42 12.19 (9.1%) 9th/[773,781) 9.20 9.94 10.27 10.04 9.76 10.32 10.36 9.57 8.83 11.71 (10.4%)
10th/[680,689] 10.23 10.72 9.61 9.96 11.97 8.18 9.87 10.28 10.10 9.07 (11.1%) 10th/[781,790] 9.52 10.25 13.71 8.45 10.64 9.41 8.76 10.41 9.68 9.18 (12.6%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
2025 SGP Results: Mathematics
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2025 Math SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,845) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,453) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,405)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics)
Advanced (4.5%) Advanced (3.9%)
Advanced (11%)
Proficient (19.5%) Proficient (21.5%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (20%)
Near Proficient (31.1%) Near Proficient (28.5%)
Near Proficient (25.1%)
Novice (44.9%) Novice (46.2%) Novice (43.9%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [600,601) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 20
Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 124 Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 60
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 1.1 27.3 14.0 27.7 N = 278 Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 5.0 3.3 10.0 11.4 19.0 12.4 29.0 N = 458
Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 8.4 1.7 4.9 1.6 7.0 9.5 15.6 17.2 10.8 23.3 N = 687
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[300,319) 12.41 10.50 12.94 13.63 4.40 12.79 7.11 11.03 8.01 7.16 (9.5%) 100 1st/[400,414) 9.39 10.24 9.34 9.79 10.74 9.67 10.07 10.29 10.46 10.01 (8.7%) 100 1st/[500,525) 10.03 9.83 9.93 10.13 9.63 10.53 9.43 10.28 9.78 10.43 (9.7%) 100
2nd/[319,329) 9.27 8.03 9.66 12.42 13.88 11.18 5.73 8.54 10.56 10.73 (9%) 2nd/[414,430) 11.25 9.52 9.79 11.21 10.06 9.15 9.97 9.56 9.19 10.29 (10.7%) 2nd/[525,535) 9.46 8.01 11.47 9.81 10.27 10.97 10.42 10.07 9.91 9.61 (9.8%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[329,335) 13.04 9.66 11.07 10.92 5.51 11.32 8.59 11.27 9.86 8.75 (10%) 3rd/[430,435) 9.66 9.74 11.74 9.08 8.66 9.99 9.74 10.07 10.74 10.57 (5.9%) 3rd/[535,539) 9.32 11.92 8.90 10.41 10.75 7.98 9.57 9.66 9.99 11.50 (5.8%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[335,340) 10.88 7.33 9.86 16.29 5.65 13.16 8.47 8.83 8.05 11.48 (8.4%) 4th/[435,441) 9.90 10.52 9.55 10.30 10.52 10.21 8.89 10.61 9.33 10.17 (11.1%) 4th/[539,546) 9.90 11.09 8.91 9.63 9.46 10.48 9.90 10.04 10.24 10.34 (14.4%)
5th/[340,345) 10.93 8.61 10.36 12.16 8.53 7.61 9.36 11.46 11.59 9.40 (11.5%) 5th/[441,446) 9.30 10.40 10.10 9.70 10.00 10.40 10.50 9.10 9.95 10.55 (9.8%) 5th/[546,550) 10.23 8.37 11.14 10.36 9.87 9.15 9.69 11.14 9.63 10.42 (8.1%)
6th/[345,350) 9.80 11.40 9.96 12.17 5.08 14.94 8.21 9.75 8.47 10.22 (9.8%) 6th/[446,451) 9.57 10.20 10.76 9.78 9.31 10.03 9.69 10.54 9.48 10.63 (11.5%) 6th/[550,555) 8.43 10.35 10.88 10.54 10.59 9.68 10.01 9.20 9.24 11.07 (10.2%)
7th/[350,356) 9.51 11.38 7.65 8.72 12.41 9.47 9.61 11.05 9.65 10.54 (10.8%) 7th/[451,458) 9.32 10.03 9.36 10.55 10.87 10.27 10.31 9.16 10.43 9.71 (12.3%) 7th/[555,561) 9.76 9.45 9.72 10.30 9.45 10.12 9.27 9.45 10.93 11.55 (10.9%)
8th/[356,362) 10.46 6.27 11.50 9.65 12.37 8.28 9.05 9.86 10.35 12.21 (9.2%) 8th/[458,463) 9.92 10.41 9.60 9.71 9.71 9.60 9.87 11.54 9.55 10.09 (9.1%) 8th/[561,567) 10.55 10.36 8.76 9.89 9.75 9.70 10.08 10.79 10.36 9.75 (10.4%)
9th/[362,371) 9.25 11.86 9.71 10.81 8.06 12.09 9.53 9.02 10.72 8.93 (11%) 9th/[463,471) 9.39 9.69 10.17 9.30 10.02 10.02 10.51 9.30 10.70 10.90 (10.1%) 9th/[567,574) 8.30 9.06 10.94 9.77 10.74 10.53 10.23 10.08 10.03 10.33 (9.6%)
10th/[371,390] 9.67 10.37 10.28 9.29 10.23 8.92 13.12 9.48 9.90 8.73 (10.8%) 10th/[471,490] 9.94 10.44 9.76 11.16 9.67 9.31 10.35 9.85 9.40 10.12 (10.9%) 10th/[574,590] 9.93 12.47 9.31 10.47 8.46 10.16 9.58 10.07 9.49 10.07 (11%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
2025 SGP Results: Mathematics
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2025 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,268) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 8 (N = 20,719)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics)
Advanced (7.1%) Advanced (6.8%)
Proficient (12.6%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (22.7%)
Near Proficient (20.2%)
Near Proficient (24%)
Novice (60.4%)
Novice (46.1%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99
1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [700,703) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 21
Lowest OSS: [ 800 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 208
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 889 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 19.3 3.6 0.0 8.3 12.0 17.2 14.6 23.4 N = 192
Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 18.9 5.9 7.1 12.4 18.6 15.0 21.8 N = 339
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[600,616) 10.07 9.79 10.13 10.46 9.57 9.51 9.90 10.35 10.02 10.18 (8.8%) 100 1st/[700,717) 9.44 11.20 9.69 9.94 9.82 9.75 10.20 9.31 10.32 10.32 (7.7%) 100
2nd/[616,627) 10.05 9.28 10.48 10.74 9.54 10.65 9.79 9.62 9.54 10.31 (5.7%) 2nd/[717,732) 10.14 8.55 10.14 9.31 10.34 10.34 9.90 11.10 9.78 10.38 (12.1%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[627,638) 10.29 10.07 10.22 9.08 10.18 9.60 10.07 9.71 10.81 9.96 (13.4%) 3rd/[732,736) 9.16 11.52 11.59 9.30 10.80 8.80 9.23 9.08 9.87 10.66 (6.7%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[638,642) 9.24 9.83 9.68 11.45 9.76 9.39 9.90 11.45 9.17 10.12 (6.7%) 4th/[736,742) 9.18 11.93 8.27 10.70 10.12 10.66 9.47 9.97 9.79 9.90 (13.3%)
5th/[642,648) 9.03 10.59 10.67 8.60 9.98 10.80 10.03 9.77 9.59 10.93 (11.4%) 5th/[742,744) 8.53 10.43 10.03 11.45 9.64 10.19 9.08 10.43 9.87 10.35 (6.1%)
6th/[648,654) 10.76 9.40 9.20 10.76 10.45 9.28 9.75 10.02 11.00 9.36 (12.7%) 6th/[744,747) 11.04 8.52 11.55 9.50 9.08 9.08 9.92 9.59 11.36 10.34 (10.4%)
7th/[654,659) 8.49 9.36 10.02 9.64 9.64 10.94 10.02 11.21 9.69 11.00 (9.1%) 7th/[747,753) 9.39 8.91 10.21 8.74 11.02 10.90 9.99 10.59 9.99 10.25 (11.2%)
8th/[659,667) 9.06 11.06 9.76 9.67 10.46 9.53 9.90 9.34 10.59 10.64 (10.6%) 8th/[753,759) 9.16 11.45 8.82 11.11 8.91 10.22 10.35 9.41 9.20 11.37 (11.4%)
9th/[667,676) 9.59 9.33 10.32 10.02 9.54 9.80 9.97 10.45 10.28 10.71 (11.5%) 9th/[759,767) 9.38 9.48 9.76 9.57 10.43 9.00 10.38 9.90 11.19 10.90 (10.1%)
10th/[676,690] 9.65 10.49 10.24 9.60 12.35 9.21 9.85 9.06 9.21 10.34 (10.1%) 10th/[767,790] 9.61 9.88 10.05 10.97 9.53 9.70 9.75 10.23 9.88 10.40 (11%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
2025 SGP Results
• The cohort referenced results, not surprisingly, all center on 50. Goodness
of fit plots all show excellent model fit (uniform distribution of percentiles
across all levels of initial achievement)
• In the following section we dig deeper into results with regard to growth
changes over time.
In Depth Analysis of SGP Trends
A Timeline of the Pandemic
Pandemic
Begins
Spring 2019 Spring 2020 Spring 2023 Spring 2024 Spring 2025
Pre-pandemic (No testing) Academic Impact Academic Recovery Academic Recovery
• Five years on from the onset of the pandemic, concerns regarding the academic
impact of the pandemic on students.
• We examine changes in growth over time to suggest:
• Continued effects of the pandemic on the learning of students (i.e., ripple effects
of the pandemic).
• Possible scale drift/movement.
Where Were They During the Pandemic?
Pandemic Years (Spring 2020 to
Current: 2024-2025
Summer 2021)
2019-2020: Grade PPK
Grade 3
2020-2021: Grade PK
2019-2020: Grade PK
Grade 4
2020-2021: Grade K
2019-2020: Grade K
Grade 5
2020-2021: Grade 1
2019-2020: Grade 1
Grade 6
2020-2021: Grade 2
2019-2020: Grade 2
Grade 7
2020-2021: Grade 3
2019-2020: Grade 3
Grade 8
2020-2021: Grade 4
2019-2020: Grade 4
Grade 10
2020-2021 Grade 5
2019-2020: Grade 5
Grade 11
2020-2021: Grade 6 12
Examining cohort growth trends over time
• Taking account of what grades the students were in when the
pandemic happened, we can examine both how this cohort grew
over time as well as how the system “adapted” as they increased
from grade to grade.
• For example, one caution expressed following the pandemic was
that students whose early literacy instruction was severely
disrupted could face increased risk of downstream academic
adversity due to inadequate foundational skills.
• We consider, for example, the students currently in Grade 7 who
were in Grade 2 (spring 2020) and Grade 3 (2020-2021 academic
year).
ELA Grade 4 2023, 2024 2025
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 20,037) 2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 20,233) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,819)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA)
Advanced (15.9%)
Advanced (21.1%) Advanced (17.9%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (16.2%) Proficient (14.6%)
Proficient (15.3%)
Near Proficient (41.1%)
Near Proficient (37.5%) Near Proficient (39.2%)
Novice (26.9%) Novice (26%) Novice (28.3%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 87.8 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 831 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 96.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 599 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 363
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.5 4.3 9.8 18.3 20.7 21.3 N = 1003 Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 0.7 22.2 13.3 28.2 N = 920 Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.8 0.0 0.1 19.5 8.5 19.2 19.0 N = 1013
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[300,324) 15.96 7.88 10.62 8.55 11.97 5.54 9.64 10.93 8.60 10.31 (9.6%) 100 1st/[300,322) 11.26 10.31 7.75 14.66 7.64 10.00 12.15 6.65 9.74 9.84 (9.4%) 100 1st/[300,319) 10.50 12.60 8.48 9.08 9.53 11.63 10.50 7.80 10.13 9.75 (6.7%) 100
2nd/[324,331) 11.69 7.89 10.46 9.64 8.59 13.15 9.12 8.94 9.64 10.87 (8.5%) 2nd/[322,331) 9.25 10.62 11.43 8.17 7.35 13.23 11.11 9.31 9.25 10.29 (9.1%) 2nd/[319,332) 9.35 10.64 9.47 12.29 9.23 8.87 8.99 10.96 9.59 10.60 (12.5%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[331,336) 8.50 12.92 5.34 13.03 12.00 9.30 10.05 8.44 10.33 10.10 (8.7%) 3rd/[331,339) 10.23 11.06 8.59 11.01 12.06 6.81 8.89 10.10 11.06 10.19 (11.4%) 3rd/[332,337) 9.91 9.35 10.41 10.64 10.36 11.76 7.78 10.75 10.41 8.62 (9%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[336,343) 10.90 8.39 12.88 10.52 6.75 10.66 8.73 10.85 10.27 10.03 (10.3%) 4th/[339,345) 9.64 10.56 9.58 8.54 10.13 9.95 12.45 8.60 10.19 10.37 (8.1%) 4th/[337,344) 11.06 10.73 11.11 8.78 6.04 11.29 11.90 9.85 8.55 10.69 (10.9%)
5th/[343,350) 9.14 11.07 9.09 8.79 11.80 9.09 10.81 9.35 10.64 10.21 (11.6%) 5th/[345,353) 9.32 9.66 10.68 10.59 8.35 12.03 9.03 10.47 9.24 10.64 (11.7%) 5th/[344,350) 8.62 9.84 9.05 10.42 13.07 9.37 10.11 8.68 10.16 10.69 (9.5%)
6th/[350,356) 9.33 10.05 10.05 12.35 9.69 9.73 8.88 9.82 8.79 11.31 (11.1%) 6th/[353,358) 9.49 9.83 10.72 9.05 11.49 8.55 10.88 9.44 10.77 9.77 (8.9%) 6th/[350,356) 8.86 10.46 11.84 9.08 10.40 10.72 5.73 11.78 10.99 10.14 (9.5%)
7th/[356,361) 9.09 9.96 9.40 10.95 9.09 10.51 10.70 9.83 10.02 10.45 (8.1%) 7th/[358,364) 10.08 10.08 10.55 9.62 9.90 9.30 9.20 11.01 10.31 9.94 (10.7%) 7th/[356,361) 9.89 9.89 10.33 9.73 10.49 6.68 15.38 8.59 8.10 10.92 (9.3%)
8th/[361,368) 10.58 10.11 10.91 6.65 10.44 10.11 10.91 11.38 9.74 9.18 (10.7%) 8th/[364,371) 9.31 10.03 9.10 11.67 9.41 11.31 11.11 9.56 9.51 9.00 (9.6%) 8th/[361,369) 10.81 9.46 8.96 10.93 9.50 11.35 8.20 9.88 10.77 10.13 (12%)
9th/[368,377) 9.20 10.45 9.30 11.70 9.49 10.07 8.87 10.26 9.49 11.17 (10.4%) 9th/[371,379) 9.52 10.82 10.34 9.38 10.39 9.76 9.14 10.20 9.14 11.30 (10.3%) 9th/[369,378) 9.05 10.39 10.94 9.10 10.49 10.04 10.09 9.40 10.00 10.49 (10.1%)
10th/[377,390] 9.67 10.58 10.26 8.99 10.36 18.93 9.17 8.39 8.90 4.74 (10.9%) 10th/[379,390] 10.26 10.57 9.02 14.49 5.38 10.35 21.65 4.97 9.30 4.01 (10.8%) 10th/[378,390] 10.41 9.98 11.28 11.57 23.34 6.46 5.64 13.11 4.15 4.05 (10.5%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
Examining growth trends over time
• We can also examine growth trends for the same grade over time.
• Larger changes in growth for the same grade over a 1 year time
span would be indicative of scale drift.
• Smaller changes could represent changes in educational efficacy or
(as we just investigated) different cohorts of students passing
through the grade with differing educational needs due to
pandemic related educational disruptions earlier in the students
schooling.
ELA Grade 7 2025
Grade 2 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 3 2020-2021
Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives
2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,307) 2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,415) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,231)
SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA)
Advanced (14.1%) Advanced (14.2%) Advanced (16.9%)
Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level
Proficient (21.4%) Proficient (22.5%)
Proficient (22.9%)
Near Proficient (33.8%) Near Proficient (28.3%)
Near Proficient (41%)
Novice (30.7%) Novice (35%)
Novice (19.2%)
Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile
Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test
Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range
Student Growth Percentile Range
Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score
5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
1 5 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5
to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 595 Lowest OSS: [ 700 ] 64.6 19.4 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 356
Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range)
Lowest OSS: [ 600 ] 56.9 26.3 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 835
Extremes (Range)
Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4 22.2 8.2 29.2 N = 572 Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.5 7.4 12.6 19.1 17.8 33.1 N = 792
(589,590] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N=2 Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 2.8 21.0 11.5 16.4 32.3 N = 713 (789,790] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 10
Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles
19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution
9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1
to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1st/[400,420) 12.85 9.74 10.70 7.11 10.22 11.88 7.53 10.15 9.81 10.01 (7.1%) 100 1st/[500,522) 10.74 9.51 9.97 10.48 9.46 10.64 9.46 9.56 10.07 10.12 (9.5%) 100 1st/[600,622) 10.19 9.92 10.25 10.36 9.59 9.81 9.53 9.59 10.14 10.63 (9%) 100
2nd/[420,431) 11.08 7.74 9.54 11.04 11.71 9.58 10.26 10.02 8.81 10.21 (10.2%) 2nd/[522,531) 12.93 8.06 10.49 10.68 9.31 10.43 8.99 9.74 9.24 10.12 (7.8%) 2nd/[622,634) 9.84 9.74 10.33 10.18 9.79 10.03 10.18 10.08 9.79 10.03 (10.1%)
Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range *
3rd/[431,439) 10.63 9.40 10.86 9.59 9.87 9.35 10.96 8.22 10.72 10.39 (10.4%) 3rd/[531,540) 8.93 10.14 10.01 9.31 10.39 9.10 10.68 10.47 9.89 11.09 (11.8%) 3rd/[634,641) 9.22 10.24 9.41 9.47 10.36 9.47 9.85 9.73 10.11 12.14 (7.8%)
Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution
4th/[439,447) 9.02 9.76 9.31 11.36 9.23 9.35 9.60 10.95 10.66 10.75 (12%) 4th/[540,547) 9.25 10.09 10.00 10.89 9.39 10.52 10.00 9.48 10.47 9.91 (10.4%) 4th/[641,649) 9.99 9.71 9.95 9.67 10.23 9.71 10.07 10.63 10.71 9.31 (12.3%)
5th/[447,452) 10.83 10.66 11.10 7.49 13.89 8.91 9.57 9.24 8.04 10.28 (9%) 5th/[547,552) 10.25 9.60 9.42 9.19 10.54 10.01 9.72 10.78 9.42 11.07 (8.3%) 5th/[649,655) 9.30 10.75 9.96 10.08 9.78 10.63 9.30 9.96 8.76 11.47 (8.2%)
6th/[452,458) 9.95 9.95 9.33 9.59 10.67 10.83 9.95 9.27 9.90 10.57 (9.5%) 6th/[552,558) 9.85 9.85 10.32 10.18 10.46 9.48 10.13 9.53 9.53 10.69 (10.5%) 6th/[655,659) 10.10 9.07 9.70 9.59 10.45 9.41 10.96 9.64 10.10 10.96 (8.6%)
7th/[458,463) 8.68 9.51 10.40 11.07 8.11 10.65 9.46 10.03 11.69 10.40 (9.5%) 7th/[558,563) 9.22 9.77 9.31 9.91 10.00 10.28 9.87 10.61 10.38 10.65 (10.6%) 7th/[659,667) 9.27 10.35 10.11 10.27 9.35 10.23 9.87 10.07 10.55 9.95 (12.4%)
8th/[463,469) 9.70 12.04 9.44 8.92 11.05 9.65 9.49 10.48 9.07 10.17 (9.4%) 8th/[563,569) 8.85 10.92 11.56 9.79 8.61 10.18 9.59 9.84 11.02 9.64 (10%) 8th/[667,672) 9.95 10.64 9.78 9.95 10.55 9.82 9.65 9.47 9.69 10.51 (11.4%)
9th/[469,478) 9.94 9.37 9.55 11.60 9.07 10.59 10.81 8.89 9.94 10.24 (11.3%) 9th/[569,578) 10.28 9.72 8.94 10.18 11.01 9.63 10.05 9.86 9.17 11.15 (10.6%) 9th/[672,680) 8.76 9.31 9.53 10.23 9.53 10.51 10.83 9.69 9.42 12.19 (9.1%)
10th/[478,490] 10.07 10.37 11.10 8.58 11.48 7.81 10.12 16.22 9.65 4.61 (11.5%) 10th/[578,590] 9.44 10.05 10.00 10.05 9.91 14.02 8.26 13.12 6.89 8.26 (10.4%) 10th/[680,689] 10.23 10.72 9.61 9.96 11.97 8.18 9.87 10.28 10.10 9.07 (11.1%)
*Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
NMPED Questions
• What would you suggest with regard to issues with the HOSS?
• How will SGPs be shared with stakeholders? Group summaries,
individual SGPs, …?
• Is there an interest in establishing baseline coefficient matrices
(from 2023, 2024, and 2025 data) for use in 2026 and beyond?
• Is there an interest in calculating projections.
About this copy
New Mexico SGP Analyses — New Mexico Technical Advisory Committee, December 2, 2025.
This is an image-based copy of the original Keynote slides; builds and animations are flattened.