New Mexico SGP Analyses

New Mexico Technical Advisory Committee · December 2, 2025

New Mexico SGP Analyses — New Mexico Technical Advisory Committee, December 2, 2025.
Published

December 2, 2025

Event
Technical advisory committee
Slides
18
Format
Converted from Keynote

This deck is an image-based copy of the original slides. Builds and animations are flattened; the slide text is reproduced below for search and screen readers.

Slide text
  1. 2025 New Mexico MSSA SGP Analyses and Results Damian Betebenner & Adam VanIwaarden Center for Assessment December 2nd, 2025
  2. SGP Results for 2025
  3. MSSA SGP Analyses in 2025: MSSA • SGP analyses have been conducted for 2023, 2024 and 2025 • Cohort referenced analyses: These analyses create growth norms from the 2023 and 2024 students. These growth norms yield cohort mean (rounded)/median SGPs of 50. • No Baseline referenced analyses were conducted as historical (e.g. pre- pandemic) growth norms have not yet been established. • No Projections (lagged and straight) were calculated for any of the years. RI Academic Impact Discussion 2023
  4. 2025 SGP Results • Mean/Median for cohort referenced referenced SGP in ELA and Mathematics are as follows: ELA Mathematics Grade Cohort Referenced Cohort Referenced
  5. 2025 SGP Results: ELA Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,819) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,426) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,400) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Advanced (17.9%) Advanced (21.5%) Advanced (16.4%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (14.6%) Proficient (23.7%) Proficient (20.5%) Near Proficient (39.2%) Near Proficient (29.8%) Near Proficient (32.8%) Novice (28.3%) Novice (25.2%) Novice (30.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 1 5 1 5 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 363 Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 81.8 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 422 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Lowest OSS: [ 600 ] 65.7 21.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 543 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.8 0.0 0.1 19.5 8.5 19.2 19.0 N = 1013 Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9 6.8 17.2 18.2 33.9 N = 570 (489,490] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 12 (589,590] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N=2 Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 9.2 1.2 5.3 13.1 21.7 14.6 32.2 N = 773 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[300,319) 10.50 12.60 8.48 9.08 9.53 11.63 10.50 7.80 10.13 9.75 (6.7%) 100 1st/[400,426) 10.99 8.89 10.27 9.31 10.69 10.27 9.91 9.67 10.21 9.79 (8.2%) 100 1st/[500,525) 10.55 9.45 10.36 10.16 9.58 10.42 10.29 9.97 9.26 9.97 (7.6%) 100 2nd/[319,332) 9.35 10.64 9.47 12.29 9.23 8.87 8.99 10.96 9.59 10.60 (12.5%) 2nd/[426,436) 10.31 9.97 10.22 10.26 10.07 9.38 10.31 9.48 9.82 10.17 (10%) 2nd/[525,536) 10.20 10.02 9.79 10.33 10.51 8.98 10.15 9.70 9.88 10.42 (10.9%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[332,337) 9.91 9.35 10.41 10.64 10.36 11.76 7.78 10.75 10.41 8.62 (9%) 3rd/[436,444) 9.32 9.51 9.61 10.24 9.75 10.43 9.17 10.67 10.53 10.77 (10.1%) 3rd/[536,542) 10.06 9.93 10.18 9.93 8.48 10.82 9.68 10.25 10.31 10.37 (7.8%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[337,344) 11.06 10.73 11.11 8.78 6.04 11.29 11.90 9.85 8.55 10.69 (10.9%) 4th/[444,450) 10.23 10.75 10.07 9.60 9.50 8.98 10.28 9.81 9.97 10.80 (9.4%) 4th/[542,549) 9.13 11.05 9.72 9.92 9.76 10.51 10.01 10.09 9.84 9.97 (11.8%) 5th/[344,350) 8.62 9.84 9.05 10.42 13.07 9.37 10.11 8.68 10.16 10.69 (9.5%) 5th/[450,456) 9.64 9.98 9.88 10.18 10.57 10.32 10.23 9.93 9.59 9.69 (10%) 5th/[549,555) 10.04 9.41 9.99 10.08 10.84 9.32 9.99 9.77 8.96 11.60 (10.9%) 6th/[350,356) 8.86 10.46 11.84 9.08 10.40 10.72 5.73 11.78 10.99 10.14 (9.5%) 6th/[456,462) 9.42 10.03 9.70 9.89 9.84 11.02 9.37 10.31 10.03 10.40 (10.4%) 6th/[555,561) 8.86 9.76 10.56 9.89 10.21 9.44 10.25 9.62 10.74 10.65 (11%) 7th/[356,361) 9.89 9.89 10.33 9.73 10.49 6.68 15.38 8.59 8.10 10.92 (9.3%) 7th/[462,468) 9.52 10.32 10.51 10.13 9.71 9.38 9.99 10.04 9.61 10.80 (10.3%) 7th/[561,565) 9.66 11.24 9.38 9.79 9.72 10.07 10.41 9.72 9.86 10.14 (7.1%) 8th/[361,369) 10.81 9.46 8.96 10.93 9.50 11.35 8.20 9.88 10.77 10.13 (12%) 8th/[468,474) 9.87 10.35 10.16 9.58 10.40 10.01 10.35 9.00 10.89 9.39 (10.1%) 8th/[565,571) 9.81 10.14 10.19 9.86 9.47 10.34 10.24 10.29 9.76 9.90 (10.1%) 9th/[369,378) 9.05 10.39 10.94 9.10 10.49 10.04 10.09 9.40 10.00 10.49 (10.1%) 9th/[474,481) 9.62 9.56 9.83 10.26 9.78 10.52 9.88 10.52 9.09 10.95 (9.2%) 9th/[571,579) 8.76 9.51 10.14 10.39 10.31 9.93 9.09 10.48 9.60 11.78 (11.7%) 10th/[378,390] 10.41 9.98 11.28 11.57 23.34 6.46 5.64 13.11 4.15 4.05 (10.5%) 10th/[481,490] 9.81 9.92 10.88 10.12 9.69 9.61 13.06 8.65 9.09 9.17 (12.3%) 10th/[579,590] 9.57 10.01 10.23 10.71 11.28 9.13 9.96 10.14 10.80 8.17 (11.2%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  6. 2025 SGP Results: ELA Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,231) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 8 (N = 20,679) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Advanced (16.9%) Advanced (19.1%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (22.9%) Proficient (21.4%) Near Proficient (41%) Near Proficient (42.1%) Novice (19.2%) Novice (17.5%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 700 ] 64.6 19.4 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 356 Lowest OSS: [ 800 ] 86.5 12.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 267 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.5 7.4 12.6 19.1 17.8 33.1 N = 792 Highest OSS: [ 889 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 1.0 5.3 7.0 7.8 14.2 17.5 14.9 24.0 N = 1453 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[600,622) 10.19 9.92 10.25 10.36 9.59 9.81 9.53 9.59 10.14 10.63 (9%) 100 1st/[700,721) 9.94 9.63 10.50 10.50 10.62 10.12 9.44 9.50 9.81 9.94 (7.8%) 100 2nd/[622,634) 9.84 9.74 10.33 10.18 9.79 10.03 10.18 10.08 9.79 10.03 (10.1%) 2nd/[721,733) 10.59 9.90 9.40 9.65 10.19 10.09 9.80 9.75 10.14 10.49 (9.7%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[634,641) 9.22 10.24 9.41 9.47 10.36 9.47 9.85 9.73 10.11 12.14 (7.8%) 3rd/[733,743) 8.97 9.55 10.79 10.01 9.97 9.88 10.17 9.59 10.55 10.50 (11.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[641,649) 9.99 9.71 9.95 9.67 10.23 9.71 10.07 10.63 10.71 9.31 (12.3%) 4th/[743,749) 10.23 10.65 8.56 9.99 10.29 11.25 9.63 9.87 9.46 10.05 (8.1%) 5th/[649,655) 9.30 10.75 9.96 10.08 9.78 10.63 9.30 9.96 8.76 11.47 (8.2%) 5th/[749,754) 9.20 9.86 10.78 9.31 9.42 9.48 10.57 10.46 9.86 11.06 (8.9%) 6th/[655,659) 10.10 9.07 9.70 9.59 10.45 9.41 10.96 9.64 10.10 10.96 (8.6%) 6th/[754,762) 10.41 10.01 10.19 9.36 10.05 10.23 9.51 9.69 9.87 10.69 (13.4%) 7th/[659,667) 9.27 10.35 10.11 10.27 9.35 10.23 9.87 10.07 10.55 9.95 (12.4%) 7th/[762,767) 9.24 9.81 9.35 11.42 9.71 10.18 10.02 9.97 10.12 10.18 (9.3%) 8th/[667,672) 9.95 10.64 9.78 9.95 10.55 9.82 9.65 9.47 9.69 10.51 (11.4%) 8th/[767,773) 9.86 11.10 9.62 9.74 9.62 9.09 9.20 10.45 10.75 10.57 (8.1%) 9th/[672,680) 8.76 9.31 9.53 10.23 9.53 10.51 10.83 9.69 9.42 12.19 (9.1%) 9th/[773,781) 9.20 9.94 10.27 10.04 9.76 10.32 10.36 9.57 8.83 11.71 (10.4%) 10th/[680,689] 10.23 10.72 9.61 9.96 11.97 8.18 9.87 10.28 10.10 9.07 (11.1%) 10th/[781,790] 9.52 10.25 13.71 8.45 10.64 9.41 8.76 10.41 9.68 9.18 (12.6%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  7. 2025 SGP Results: Mathematics Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2025 Math SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,845) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,453) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,405) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Advanced (4.5%) Advanced (3.9%) Advanced (11%) Proficient (19.5%) Proficient (21.5%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (20%) Near Proficient (31.1%) Near Proficient (28.5%) Near Proficient (25.1%) Novice (44.9%) Novice (46.2%) Novice (43.9%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [600,601) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 20 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 124 Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 60 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 1.1 27.3 14.0 27.7 N = 278 Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 5.0 3.3 10.0 11.4 19.0 12.4 29.0 N = 458 Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 8.4 1.7 4.9 1.6 7.0 9.5 15.6 17.2 10.8 23.3 N = 687 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[300,319) 12.41 10.50 12.94 13.63 4.40 12.79 7.11 11.03 8.01 7.16 (9.5%) 100 1st/[400,414) 9.39 10.24 9.34 9.79 10.74 9.67 10.07 10.29 10.46 10.01 (8.7%) 100 1st/[500,525) 10.03 9.83 9.93 10.13 9.63 10.53 9.43 10.28 9.78 10.43 (9.7%) 100 2nd/[319,329) 9.27 8.03 9.66 12.42 13.88 11.18 5.73 8.54 10.56 10.73 (9%) 2nd/[414,430) 11.25 9.52 9.79 11.21 10.06 9.15 9.97 9.56 9.19 10.29 (10.7%) 2nd/[525,535) 9.46 8.01 11.47 9.81 10.27 10.97 10.42 10.07 9.91 9.61 (9.8%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[329,335) 13.04 9.66 11.07 10.92 5.51 11.32 8.59 11.27 9.86 8.75 (10%) 3rd/[430,435) 9.66 9.74 11.74 9.08 8.66 9.99 9.74 10.07 10.74 10.57 (5.9%) 3rd/[535,539) 9.32 11.92 8.90 10.41 10.75 7.98 9.57 9.66 9.99 11.50 (5.8%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[335,340) 10.88 7.33 9.86 16.29 5.65 13.16 8.47 8.83 8.05 11.48 (8.4%) 4th/[435,441) 9.90 10.52 9.55 10.30 10.52 10.21 8.89 10.61 9.33 10.17 (11.1%) 4th/[539,546) 9.90 11.09 8.91 9.63 9.46 10.48 9.90 10.04 10.24 10.34 (14.4%) 5th/[340,345) 10.93 8.61 10.36 12.16 8.53 7.61 9.36 11.46 11.59 9.40 (11.5%) 5th/[441,446) 9.30 10.40 10.10 9.70 10.00 10.40 10.50 9.10 9.95 10.55 (9.8%) 5th/[546,550) 10.23 8.37 11.14 10.36 9.87 9.15 9.69 11.14 9.63 10.42 (8.1%) 6th/[345,350) 9.80 11.40 9.96 12.17 5.08 14.94 8.21 9.75 8.47 10.22 (9.8%) 6th/[446,451) 9.57 10.20 10.76 9.78 9.31 10.03 9.69 10.54 9.48 10.63 (11.5%) 6th/[550,555) 8.43 10.35 10.88 10.54 10.59 9.68 10.01 9.20 9.24 11.07 (10.2%) 7th/[350,356) 9.51 11.38 7.65 8.72 12.41 9.47 9.61 11.05 9.65 10.54 (10.8%) 7th/[451,458) 9.32 10.03 9.36 10.55 10.87 10.27 10.31 9.16 10.43 9.71 (12.3%) 7th/[555,561) 9.76 9.45 9.72 10.30 9.45 10.12 9.27 9.45 10.93 11.55 (10.9%) 8th/[356,362) 10.46 6.27 11.50 9.65 12.37 8.28 9.05 9.86 10.35 12.21 (9.2%) 8th/[458,463) 9.92 10.41 9.60 9.71 9.71 9.60 9.87 11.54 9.55 10.09 (9.1%) 8th/[561,567) 10.55 10.36 8.76 9.89 9.75 9.70 10.08 10.79 10.36 9.75 (10.4%) 9th/[362,371) 9.25 11.86 9.71 10.81 8.06 12.09 9.53 9.02 10.72 8.93 (11%) 9th/[463,471) 9.39 9.69 10.17 9.30 10.02 10.02 10.51 9.30 10.70 10.90 (10.1%) 9th/[567,574) 8.30 9.06 10.94 9.77 10.74 10.53 10.23 10.08 10.03 10.33 (9.6%) 10th/[371,390] 9.67 10.37 10.28 9.29 10.23 8.92 13.12 9.48 9.90 8.73 (10.8%) 10th/[471,490] 9.94 10.44 9.76 11.16 9.67 9.31 10.35 9.85 9.40 10.12 (10.9%) 10th/[574,590] 9.93 12.47 9.31 10.47 8.46 10.16 9.58 10.07 9.49 10.07 (11%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  8. 2025 SGP Results: Mathematics Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2025 Math SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,268) 2025 Math SGP, Grade 8 (N = 20,719) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (Mathematics) Advanced (7.1%) Advanced (6.8%) Proficient (12.6%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (22.7%) Near Proficient (20.2%) Near Proficient (24%) Novice (60.4%) Novice (46.1%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [700,703) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 21 Lowest OSS: [ 800 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 208 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 889 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 19.3 3.6 0.0 8.3 12.0 17.2 14.6 23.4 N = 192 Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 18.9 5.9 7.1 12.4 18.6 15.0 21.8 N = 339 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[600,616) 10.07 9.79 10.13 10.46 9.57 9.51 9.90 10.35 10.02 10.18 (8.8%) 100 1st/[700,717) 9.44 11.20 9.69 9.94 9.82 9.75 10.20 9.31 10.32 10.32 (7.7%) 100 2nd/[616,627) 10.05 9.28 10.48 10.74 9.54 10.65 9.79 9.62 9.54 10.31 (5.7%) 2nd/[717,732) 10.14 8.55 10.14 9.31 10.34 10.34 9.90 11.10 9.78 10.38 (12.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[627,638) 10.29 10.07 10.22 9.08 10.18 9.60 10.07 9.71 10.81 9.96 (13.4%) 3rd/[732,736) 9.16 11.52 11.59 9.30 10.80 8.80 9.23 9.08 9.87 10.66 (6.7%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[638,642) 9.24 9.83 9.68 11.45 9.76 9.39 9.90 11.45 9.17 10.12 (6.7%) 4th/[736,742) 9.18 11.93 8.27 10.70 10.12 10.66 9.47 9.97 9.79 9.90 (13.3%) 5th/[642,648) 9.03 10.59 10.67 8.60 9.98 10.80 10.03 9.77 9.59 10.93 (11.4%) 5th/[742,744) 8.53 10.43 10.03 11.45 9.64 10.19 9.08 10.43 9.87 10.35 (6.1%) 6th/[648,654) 10.76 9.40 9.20 10.76 10.45 9.28 9.75 10.02 11.00 9.36 (12.7%) 6th/[744,747) 11.04 8.52 11.55 9.50 9.08 9.08 9.92 9.59 11.36 10.34 (10.4%) 7th/[654,659) 8.49 9.36 10.02 9.64 9.64 10.94 10.02 11.21 9.69 11.00 (9.1%) 7th/[747,753) 9.39 8.91 10.21 8.74 11.02 10.90 9.99 10.59 9.99 10.25 (11.2%) 8th/[659,667) 9.06 11.06 9.76 9.67 10.46 9.53 9.90 9.34 10.59 10.64 (10.6%) 8th/[753,759) 9.16 11.45 8.82 11.11 8.91 10.22 10.35 9.41 9.20 11.37 (11.4%) 9th/[667,676) 9.59 9.33 10.32 10.02 9.54 9.80 9.97 10.45 10.28 10.71 (11.5%) 9th/[759,767) 9.38 9.48 9.76 9.57 10.43 9.00 10.38 9.90 11.19 10.90 (10.1%) 10th/[676,690] 9.65 10.49 10.24 9.60 12.35 9.21 9.85 9.06 9.21 10.34 (10.1%) 10th/[767,790] 9.61 9.88 10.05 10.97 9.53 9.70 9.75 10.23 9.88 10.40 (11%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  9. 2025 SGP Results • The cohort referenced results, not surprisingly, all center on 50. Goodness of fit plots all show excellent model fit (uniform distribution of percentiles across all levels of initial achievement) • In the following section we dig deeper into results with regard to growth changes over time.
  10. In Depth Analysis of SGP Trends
  11. A Timeline of the Pandemic Pandemic Begins Spring 2019 Spring 2020 Spring 2023 Spring 2024 Spring 2025 Pre-pandemic (No testing) Academic Impact Academic Recovery Academic Recovery • Five years on from the onset of the pandemic, concerns regarding the academic impact of the pandemic on students. • We examine changes in growth over time to suggest: • Continued effects of the pandemic on the learning of students (i.e., ripple effects of the pandemic). • Possible scale drift/movement.
  12. Where Were They During the Pandemic? Pandemic Years (Spring 2020 to Current: 2024-2025 Summer 2021) 2019-2020: Grade PPK Grade 3 2020-2021: Grade PK 2019-2020: Grade PK Grade 4 2020-2021: Grade K 2019-2020: Grade K Grade 5 2020-2021: Grade 1 2019-2020: Grade 1 Grade 6 2020-2021: Grade 2 2019-2020: Grade 2 Grade 7 2020-2021: Grade 3 2019-2020: Grade 3 Grade 8 2020-2021: Grade 4 2019-2020: Grade 4 Grade 10 2020-2021 Grade 5 2019-2020: Grade 5 Grade 11 2020-2021: Grade 6 12
  13. Examining cohort growth trends over time • Taking account of what grades the students were in when the pandemic happened, we can examine both how this cohort grew over time as well as how the system “adapted” as they increased from grade to grade. • For example, one caution expressed following the pandemic was that students whose early literacy instruction was severely disrupted could face increased risk of downstream academic adversity due to inadequate foundational skills. • We consider, for example, the students currently in Grade 7 who were in Grade 2 (spring 2020) and Grade 3 (2020-2021 academic year).
  14. ELA Grade 4 2023, 2024 2025 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 20,037) 2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 20,233) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 4 (N = 19,819) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Advanced (15.9%) Advanced (21.1%) Advanced (17.9%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (16.2%) Proficient (14.6%) Proficient (15.3%) Near Proficient (41.1%) Near Proficient (37.5%) Near Proficient (39.2%) Novice (26.9%) Novice (26%) Novice (28.3%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 87.8 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 831 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 96.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 599 Lowest OSS: [ 400 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 363 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.5 4.3 9.8 18.3 20.7 21.3 N = 1003 Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 0.7 22.2 13.3 28.2 N = 920 Highest OSS: [ 489 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.8 0.0 0.1 19.5 8.5 19.2 19.0 N = 1013 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[300,324) 15.96 7.88 10.62 8.55 11.97 5.54 9.64 10.93 8.60 10.31 (9.6%) 100 1st/[300,322) 11.26 10.31 7.75 14.66 7.64 10.00 12.15 6.65 9.74 9.84 (9.4%) 100 1st/[300,319) 10.50 12.60 8.48 9.08 9.53 11.63 10.50 7.80 10.13 9.75 (6.7%) 100 2nd/[324,331) 11.69 7.89 10.46 9.64 8.59 13.15 9.12 8.94 9.64 10.87 (8.5%) 2nd/[322,331) 9.25 10.62 11.43 8.17 7.35 13.23 11.11 9.31 9.25 10.29 (9.1%) 2nd/[319,332) 9.35 10.64 9.47 12.29 9.23 8.87 8.99 10.96 9.59 10.60 (12.5%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[331,336) 8.50 12.92 5.34 13.03 12.00 9.30 10.05 8.44 10.33 10.10 (8.7%) 3rd/[331,339) 10.23 11.06 8.59 11.01 12.06 6.81 8.89 10.10 11.06 10.19 (11.4%) 3rd/[332,337) 9.91 9.35 10.41 10.64 10.36 11.76 7.78 10.75 10.41 8.62 (9%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[336,343) 10.90 8.39 12.88 10.52 6.75 10.66 8.73 10.85 10.27 10.03 (10.3%) 4th/[339,345) 9.64 10.56 9.58 8.54 10.13 9.95 12.45 8.60 10.19 10.37 (8.1%) 4th/[337,344) 11.06 10.73 11.11 8.78 6.04 11.29 11.90 9.85 8.55 10.69 (10.9%) 5th/[343,350) 9.14 11.07 9.09 8.79 11.80 9.09 10.81 9.35 10.64 10.21 (11.6%) 5th/[345,353) 9.32 9.66 10.68 10.59 8.35 12.03 9.03 10.47 9.24 10.64 (11.7%) 5th/[344,350) 8.62 9.84 9.05 10.42 13.07 9.37 10.11 8.68 10.16 10.69 (9.5%) 6th/[350,356) 9.33 10.05 10.05 12.35 9.69 9.73 8.88 9.82 8.79 11.31 (11.1%) 6th/[353,358) 9.49 9.83 10.72 9.05 11.49 8.55 10.88 9.44 10.77 9.77 (8.9%) 6th/[350,356) 8.86 10.46 11.84 9.08 10.40 10.72 5.73 11.78 10.99 10.14 (9.5%) 7th/[356,361) 9.09 9.96 9.40 10.95 9.09 10.51 10.70 9.83 10.02 10.45 (8.1%) 7th/[358,364) 10.08 10.08 10.55 9.62 9.90 9.30 9.20 11.01 10.31 9.94 (10.7%) 7th/[356,361) 9.89 9.89 10.33 9.73 10.49 6.68 15.38 8.59 8.10 10.92 (9.3%) 8th/[361,368) 10.58 10.11 10.91 6.65 10.44 10.11 10.91 11.38 9.74 9.18 (10.7%) 8th/[364,371) 9.31 10.03 9.10 11.67 9.41 11.31 11.11 9.56 9.51 9.00 (9.6%) 8th/[361,369) 10.81 9.46 8.96 10.93 9.50 11.35 8.20 9.88 10.77 10.13 (12%) 9th/[368,377) 9.20 10.45 9.30 11.70 9.49 10.07 8.87 10.26 9.49 11.17 (10.4%) 9th/[371,379) 9.52 10.82 10.34 9.38 10.39 9.76 9.14 10.20 9.14 11.30 (10.3%) 9th/[369,378) 9.05 10.39 10.94 9.10 10.49 10.04 10.09 9.40 10.00 10.49 (10.1%) 10th/[377,390] 9.67 10.58 10.26 8.99 10.36 18.93 9.17 8.39 8.90 4.74 (10.9%) 10th/[379,390] 10.26 10.57 9.02 14.49 5.38 10.35 21.65 4.97 9.30 4.01 (10.8%) 10th/[378,390] 10.41 9.98 11.28 11.57 23.34 6.46 5.64 13.11 4.15 4.05 (10.5%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  15. Examining growth trends over time • We can also examine growth trends for the same grade over time. • Larger changes in growth for the same grade over a 1 year time span would be indicative of scale drift. • Smaller changes could represent changes in educational efficacy or (as we just investigated) different cohorts of students passing through the grade with differing educational needs due to pandemic related educational disruptions earlier in the students schooling.
  16. ELA Grade 7 2025 Grade 2 2019-2020 (Spring) and Grade 3 2020-2021 Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives Student Growth Percentile Goodness−of−Fit Descriptives 2023 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 5 (N = 20,307) 2024 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 6 (N = 20,415) 2025 English Language Arts SGP, Grade 7 (N = 20,231) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) SGP Deciles by Prior Achievement Level (ELA) Advanced (14.1%) Advanced (14.2%) Advanced (16.9%) Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Prior Achievement Level Proficient (21.4%) Proficient (22.5%) Proficient (22.9%) Near Proficient (33.8%) Near Proficient (28.3%) Near Proficient (41%) Novice (30.7%) Novice (35%) Novice (19.2%) Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Median Student Growth Percentile Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Ceiling / Floor Effects Test Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Student Growth Percentile Range Current Observed Score Current Observed Score Current Observed Score 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 94 99 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1 5 5 9 to to to to to to to to to to 1 5 to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 Lowest OSS: [ 500 ] 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 595 Lowest OSS: [ 700 ] 64.6 19.4 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 356 Extremes (Range) Extremes (Range) Lowest OSS: [ 600 ] 56.9 26.3 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N = 835 Extremes (Range) Highest OSS: [ 589 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4 22.2 8.2 29.2 N = 572 Highest OSS: [ 789 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.5 7.4 12.6 19.1 17.8 33.1 N = 792 (589,590] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N=2 Highest OSS: [ 689 ] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 2.8 21.0 11.5 16.4 32.3 N = 713 (789,790] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 N = 10 Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles Student Growth Percentile Range QQ−Plot: Student Growth Percentiles 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 Theoretical SGP Distribution 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to 9 to to to to to to to to to to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st/[400,420) 12.85 9.74 10.70 7.11 10.22 11.88 7.53 10.15 9.81 10.01 (7.1%) 100 1st/[500,522) 10.74 9.51 9.97 10.48 9.46 10.64 9.46 9.56 10.07 10.12 (9.5%) 100 1st/[600,622) 10.19 9.92 10.25 10.36 9.59 9.81 9.53 9.59 10.14 10.63 (9%) 100 2nd/[420,431) 11.08 7.74 9.54 11.04 11.71 9.58 10.26 10.02 8.81 10.21 (10.2%) 2nd/[522,531) 12.93 8.06 10.49 10.68 9.31 10.43 8.99 9.74 9.24 10.12 (7.8%) 2nd/[622,634) 9.84 9.74 10.33 10.18 9.79 10.03 10.18 10.08 9.79 10.03 (10.1%) Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * Prior Scale Score Decile/Range * 3rd/[431,439) 10.63 9.40 10.86 9.59 9.87 9.35 10.96 8.22 10.72 10.39 (10.4%) 3rd/[531,540) 8.93 10.14 10.01 9.31 10.39 9.10 10.68 10.47 9.89 11.09 (11.8%) 3rd/[634,641) 9.22 10.24 9.41 9.47 10.36 9.47 9.85 9.73 10.11 12.14 (7.8%) Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution Empirical SGP Distribution 4th/[439,447) 9.02 9.76 9.31 11.36 9.23 9.35 9.60 10.95 10.66 10.75 (12%) 4th/[540,547) 9.25 10.09 10.00 10.89 9.39 10.52 10.00 9.48 10.47 9.91 (10.4%) 4th/[641,649) 9.99 9.71 9.95 9.67 10.23 9.71 10.07 10.63 10.71 9.31 (12.3%) 5th/[447,452) 10.83 10.66 11.10 7.49 13.89 8.91 9.57 9.24 8.04 10.28 (9%) 5th/[547,552) 10.25 9.60 9.42 9.19 10.54 10.01 9.72 10.78 9.42 11.07 (8.3%) 5th/[649,655) 9.30 10.75 9.96 10.08 9.78 10.63 9.30 9.96 8.76 11.47 (8.2%) 6th/[452,458) 9.95 9.95 9.33 9.59 10.67 10.83 9.95 9.27 9.90 10.57 (9.5%) 6th/[552,558) 9.85 9.85 10.32 10.18 10.46 9.48 10.13 9.53 9.53 10.69 (10.5%) 6th/[655,659) 10.10 9.07 9.70 9.59 10.45 9.41 10.96 9.64 10.10 10.96 (8.6%) 7th/[458,463) 8.68 9.51 10.40 11.07 8.11 10.65 9.46 10.03 11.69 10.40 (9.5%) 7th/[558,563) 9.22 9.77 9.31 9.91 10.00 10.28 9.87 10.61 10.38 10.65 (10.6%) 7th/[659,667) 9.27 10.35 10.11 10.27 9.35 10.23 9.87 10.07 10.55 9.95 (12.4%) 8th/[463,469) 9.70 12.04 9.44 8.92 11.05 9.65 9.49 10.48 9.07 10.17 (9.4%) 8th/[563,569) 8.85 10.92 11.56 9.79 8.61 10.18 9.59 9.84 11.02 9.64 (10%) 8th/[667,672) 9.95 10.64 9.78 9.95 10.55 9.82 9.65 9.47 9.69 10.51 (11.4%) 9th/[469,478) 9.94 9.37 9.55 11.60 9.07 10.59 10.81 8.89 9.94 10.24 (11.3%) 9th/[569,578) 10.28 9.72 8.94 10.18 11.01 9.63 10.05 9.86 9.17 11.15 (10.6%) 9th/[672,680) 8.76 9.31 9.53 10.23 9.53 10.51 10.83 9.69 9.42 12.19 (9.1%) 10th/[478,490] 10.07 10.37 11.10 8.58 11.48 7.81 10.12 16.22 9.65 4.61 (11.5%) 10th/[578,590] 9.44 10.05 10.00 10.05 9.91 14.02 8.26 13.12 6.89 8.26 (10.4%) 10th/[680,689] 10.23 10.72 9.61 9.96 11.97 8.18 9.87 10.28 10.10 9.07 (11.1%) *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution *Prior score deciles can be uneven depending upon the prior score distribution
  17. NMPED Questions • What would you suggest with regard to issues with the HOSS? • How will SGPs be shared with stakeholders? Group summaries, individual SGPs, …? • Is there an interest in establishing baseline coefficient matrices (from 2023, 2024, and 2025 data) for use in 2026 and beyond? • Is there an interest in calculating projections.
  18. Questions