Pursue the Nearest Grade Average approach

The advice. “Encourage OEAA to approach this avenue.”

The committee’s endorsement of the Nearest Grade Average Method as the path forward for high school growth targets.

Why. NGA lets every high school grade project three years out, matching elementary and middle school, which addresses the structural cause of high schools being over-identified. It is more precise than the logistic regression method already in operational use for MI-Access, and it has a Michigan precedent — the 2018-19 PSAT 8/9 and SAT transition. The alignment scatterplots showed the NGA and R-package AGPs tracking closely.

Status. Accepted in principle by the committee. Not yet adopted by OEAA, and adoption is gated by ESSA Plan Constraints and by an unanswered question about whether the resulting impact on index values is desirable (Is the impact of NGA on index values desirable?).

Carries with it. The committee’s endorsement of the method was paired with Set adequate growth above the 65th percentile — the method should not be adopted while leaving the adequacy threshold where it is.