ESSA Plan Constraints
State as of April 2026: the binding constraint on growth model change. Understood, not resolved.
The constraint
The Adequate Growth Percentile as currently defined is written into Michigan’s approved ESSA plan. Changing it requires a plan amendment — described in the room as “a large department-wide plan,” not something OEAA can execute alone.
The distinction OEAA drew
OEAA believes the Nearest Grade Average Method change is a technical update within its own authority, not a change to the AGP definition requiring amendment. That distinction is what makes the proposal actionable at all.
It is a distinction OEAA asserted; the corpus contains no record of it being tested with the department’s federal programmes staff or with the U.S. Department of Education.
The trend break
Because the change touches all grades, adoption would require an announced break in trend. Every longitudinal comparison across the boundary year would be invalid, and that has to be communicated before the fact rather than explained afterward.
The committee asked directly how OEAA would explain a standard change and a break in trend. The honest answer was that OEAA “hasn’t gotten that far in planning” and is still deciding whether a new growth calculation should be done at all. Tracked as How would OEAA communicate a standard change and break in trend?.
Why this matters beyond growth
The same pattern — a technically sound improvement gated behind a federal plan amendment and a trend break — will recur for any change to a reported accountability metric. It is the reason M-STEP Subscore Reporting decisions have a spring deadline for the following year’s results, and it is the reason the committee’s advice on both topics leans toward getting the inference right before changing the machinery.
History
| Meeting | What moved |
|---|---|
| Session 3 — Accountability Growth Methodology Targets | Constraint identified and scoped; technical-update-versus-amendment distinction asserted by OEAA; trend-break communication acknowledged as unplanned |